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Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in Florida (Kerry 50% W 43% Nader 2%)
americanresearchgroup ^ | 08/06/04 | americanresearchgroup

Posted on 08/06/2004 11:08:58 AM PDT by KQQL

John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida.

Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.

The interviews were conducted August 3 through 5, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.


(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2004; arg; kerrybounce; polls
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To: KQQL

Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats.


LOL at the sampling.


21 posted on 08/06/2004 11:19:20 AM PDT by slowhand520
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To: KQQL
39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.

LOL!

22 posted on 08/06/2004 11:19:40 AM PDT by CyberCowboy777 (Veritas vos liberabit)
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To: KQQL
likely voters.

I would give the poll a bit more credibility if it counted only registered voters who are likely to vote.

23 posted on 08/06/2004 11:20:11 AM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: KQQL
About this survey:

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.

24 posted on 08/06/2004 11:20:13 AM PDT by presidio9 (Islam is as Islam does)
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To: KQQL
These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida who are on a government subsidy and thus home during the day. Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are stated Democrats, and 16% are Democrats who wouldn't admit to being so over the phone.

Yawn...

25 posted on 08/06/2004 11:20:17 AM PDT by pabianice
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To: KQQL
On the other hand...Strategic Vision Poll Results: FL (08/06) - Bush Cheney 48% - Kerry—Edwards 47% - Nader-Comejo 1%
26 posted on 08/06/2004 11:20:43 AM PDT by veronica (http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnkerry.com/ - read the truth about John Kerry!)
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To: slowhand520

You beat me by 20 seconds.


27 posted on 08/06/2004 11:21:14 AM PDT by CyberCowboy777 (Veritas vos liberabit)
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To: slowhand520

You beat me by 20 seconds.


28 posted on 08/06/2004 11:21:25 AM PDT by CyberCowboy777 (Veritas vos liberabit)
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To: slowhand520

You beat me by 20 seconds.


29 posted on 08/06/2004 11:21:33 AM PDT by CyberCowboy777 (Veritas vos liberabit)
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To: All

ARG sauces their polls. Most of the time they don't agree with other polls taken at the same time.


30 posted on 08/06/2004 11:22:08 AM PDT by COEXERJ145
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To: WoodstockCat

Too many non-affiliates and Republicans under sampled. The poll stated interviewed and that worries me. It's an up or down question but with multiple Q/A could be slanted.


31 posted on 08/06/2004 11:22:49 AM PDT by tobyhill (The war on terrorism is not for the weak!)
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To: rwfromkansas

I see very FEW Kerry stickers on cars and MANY W-04's

(Oh, I'm in JAX)


32 posted on 08/06/2004 11:22:51 AM PDT by OXENinFLA (<<<<<<< Cog in the Republican Attack Machine.)
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To: GetZarqawiNow
This poll is the biggest pile of dung I've seen since the last time I was at a horse farm.

And what you saw at the horse farm smelled better.

33 posted on 08/06/2004 11:24:58 AM PDT by Wolfstar (Dork, dufus, dolt, dummy, dope, Democrat — ain't alliteration grand!)
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To: KQQL

"These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida"



They probably hung up on the ones that said Bush.


34 posted on 08/06/2004 11:25:00 AM PDT by tobyhill (The war on terrorism is not for the weak!)
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To: KQQL
Polls don't mean anything, until Nov. 2.
Strategic Vision Poll Results: FL (08/06) - Bush Cheney 48% - Kerry—Edwards 47% - Nader-Comejo 1%
35 posted on 08/06/2004 11:28:09 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (The dumbocRATs have their heads buried in the sand.)
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To: rwfromkansas

I live in [overwhelmingly Republican] Western Maryland and in 43 years of life on this planet, not ONCE has any pollster ever asked me anything.

Apparently only the opinions of the counties surrounding DC and Baltimore matter.


36 posted on 08/06/2004 11:28:29 AM PDT by Salamander
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To: KQQL

About half of the residents of Florida are still up north this time of year.

Any poll that doesn't include the millions of snow birds that migrate to Florida in the fall (pre election), can't be accurate.

Most of the snow birds are retired, conservative, and pro Bush. And they do vote.

Ask anyone who lives in Florida (as I do), they'll tell you that many neighborhoods are ghost towns during the summer months.

But come late september, you'll see all the snowbirds moving back.

They vote here . . . their vote (and dollars in the local economy) make a big difference.


37 posted on 08/06/2004 11:28:29 AM PDT by Puntagorda
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To: pabianice

Telephone polls only prove that more democrats are sitting at home answering their phones all day. Republicans are less likely to answer the phone because they're at work or don't feel like talking to telemarketers.


38 posted on 08/06/2004 11:29:02 AM PDT by FITZ
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Comment #39 Removed by Moderator

To: KQQL

ARG is consistently more pro-Kerry than other polls. I'll wait for Mason Dixon.


40 posted on 08/06/2004 11:30:47 AM PDT by kesg
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