Posted on 06/16/2004 8:17:00 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
THE OSCILLATING RACE
Bush 47.17% - 256 | Kerry 48.66% - 282
June 15, 2004
Last week, Kerry lead the composite poll by 1.54% and this week, he leads by 1.49%, but the electoral vote picture has switched from last week's Bush lead of 281-257 to a Kerry lead of 282-256. While the state by state picture continues to oscillate between the candidates, there's been a clear trend in Kerry's favor in the national composite results, but that trend has slowed and for the last month, there hasn't been much change.
This week's composite poll includes the suspicious LA Times poll, showing a Kerry lead of 6 points. I discussed why it is suspicious here. Without that poll's results, the composite poll would show a dead even race.
This week's analysis includes 9 new state polls for Illinois (Kerry +13), Kentucky (Bush +13), Michigan (Kerry +2), Missouri (Bush +11), New Hampshire (Tied), Ohio (Kerry +3), Pennsylvania (Kerry +1), West Virginia (Kerry +6) and Wisconsin (Bush +2).
Bush State Gains
None
Kerry State Gains
Ohio
West Virginia
Toss Ups (slight lead of less than 2%)
Florida (Bush)
New Hampshire (Kerry)*NEW*
New Mexico (Kerry)
Ohio (Kerry)
Oregon (Bush)
Pennsylvania (Kerry)
West Virginia (Kerry) *NEW*
The States
Margin of Lead
(+Bush | -Kerry)
|
Alaska | 27.52% Arizona | 4.73% Arkansas | 3.58% California | -8.34% Colorado | 7.27% Connecticut | -11.43% Delaware | -15.29% District of Columbia | -79.78% Florida | 0.14% Georgia | 14.08% Hawaii | -21.61% Idaho | 38.25% Illinois | -13.07% Indiana | 19.85% Iowa | -5.32% Kansas | 18.64% Kentucky | 10.53% Louisiana | 12.01% Maine | -14.40% Maryland | -13.92% Massachusetts | -24.99% Michigan | -2.37% Minnesota | -4.34% Mississippi | 15.36% Missouri | 5.83% Montana | 20.27% Nebraska | 26.73% Nevada | 4.88% New Hampshire | -1.18% New Jersey | -7.60% New Mexico | -1.54% New York | -21.23% North Carolina | 5.78% North Dakota | 26.01% Ohio | -0.20% Oklahoma | 21.75% Oregon | 0.23% Pennsylvania | -1.36% Rhode Island | -32.37% South Carolina | 10.42% South Dakota | 16.73% Tennessee | 6.44% Texas | 17.23% Utah | 44.05% Vermont | -13.40% Virginia | 2.40% Washington | -5.34% West Virginia | -1.05% Wisconsin | -1.61%
|
Did you notice on the Rasmussen thread that Scott has now admitted that he gives Democrats a 4 point advantage in his polls!!!!
One of the more dishonest presentations, claiming 47.17% vs 48.66%. I really don't think the Federal Review staff really know things to .01% or 1 part in 10,000. More honest would be Bush about 47% and Kerry about 49%.
Small problem: the last Ohio poll (Rasmussen) had Bush UP in OHIO. Flip that electoral chart by 40 EVs.
More recent poll had Bush up by something like three here in OH; and IBD poll out yesterday had Bush with a 3-point national lead.
Any poll that includes the LA Times poll is BS.
Well, I didn't notice it till it was pointed out above, but by including the utterly falst LA Slimes poll, it skews all FIVE OTHER POLLS which favor Bush!! And by ignoring the two recent OH polls and yesterday's SurveyUSA poll in FL, you have to add 47 EVs to Bush, and subtract 47 from "Effing" Kerry.
Yep.
The WV poll was Mason Dixon. Though it may have been for a democrat candidate which could have skewed it.
Check the numbers. There's only one poll putting Kerry ahead -- the LA Times poll.
I could give you another 20 digits after the decimal if you want. The reason I give two decimal places is because this is straight mathematical. My judgment influences only the construction of the formulae and methodology, and then I let the math tell me how to slot a state. Sometimes, using whole integers won't tell me how to slot a state, and I'd list it as 0% but give the state to one of the candidates because the math showed a lead of 0.02.
My purpose here is to see what trends there are, but the problem is the race has been generally pretty even, though it does appear there was a trend towards Kerry over 2 months, which has petered out.
Funny that I don't get as many snide attacks when I show a Bush lead.
Four points would be consistent with national turnout in the 2000 election, where exit polls showed that 39% of voters identified themselves as Democrats, while 35% identified themselves as Republicans.
Then show a Bush lead. This is so simple.
Florida is Bush's in this analysis, though without benefit of the Florida poll which I found after the analysis. The Ohio one is screwed up by the LA Times poll, but any newer poll will flip it back to Bush (probably).
No. Where?
The LA Times hasn't done many state polls, but, believe it or not, it hasn't been very skewed towards Kerry in the polls it has done (on the average). They did a poll in Missouri which had Bush favored by 9, which averaged in with their other polls, nets out to not being that favorable for Kerry.
However, their polls do not appear to be very accurate, even if (so far, anyway), apparently not biased (this comment is just for the state polls, not the national polls).
The NC and VA polls were both Rasmussen polls.
This was Dales' guess as to what Rasmussen was doing. (using the 2000 exit polls).
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