Posted on 06/16/2004 8:17:00 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
THE OSCILLATING RACE
Bush 47.17% - 256 | Kerry 48.66% - 282
June 15, 2004
Last week, Kerry lead the composite poll by 1.54% and this week, he leads by 1.49%, but the electoral vote picture has switched from last week's Bush lead of 281-257 to a Kerry lead of 282-256. While the state by state picture continues to oscillate between the candidates, there's been a clear trend in Kerry's favor in the national composite results, but that trend has slowed and for the last month, there hasn't been much change.
This week's composite poll includes the suspicious LA Times poll, showing a Kerry lead of 6 points. I discussed why it is suspicious here. Without that poll's results, the composite poll would show a dead even race.
This week's analysis includes 9 new state polls for Illinois (Kerry +13), Kentucky (Bush +13), Michigan (Kerry +2), Missouri (Bush +11), New Hampshire (Tied), Ohio (Kerry +3), Pennsylvania (Kerry +1), West Virginia (Kerry +6) and Wisconsin (Bush +2).
Bush State Gains
None
Kerry State Gains
Ohio
West Virginia
Toss Ups (slight lead of less than 2%)
Florida (Bush)
New Hampshire (Kerry)*NEW*
New Mexico (Kerry)
Ohio (Kerry)
Oregon (Bush)
Pennsylvania (Kerry)
West Virginia (Kerry) *NEW*
The States
Margin of Lead
(+Bush | -Kerry)
|
Alaska | 27.52% Arizona | 4.73% Arkansas | 3.58% California | -8.34% Colorado | 7.27% Connecticut | -11.43% Delaware | -15.29% District of Columbia | -79.78% Florida | 0.14% Georgia | 14.08% Hawaii | -21.61% Idaho | 38.25% Illinois | -13.07% Indiana | 19.85% Iowa | -5.32% Kansas | 18.64% Kentucky | 10.53% Louisiana | 12.01% Maine | -14.40% Maryland | -13.92% Massachusetts | -24.99% Michigan | -2.37% Minnesota | -4.34% Mississippi | 15.36% Missouri | 5.83% Montana | 20.27% Nebraska | 26.73% Nevada | 4.88% New Hampshire | -1.18% New Jersey | -7.60% New Mexico | -1.54% New York | -21.23% North Carolina | 5.78% North Dakota | 26.01% Ohio | -0.20% Oklahoma | 21.75% Oregon | 0.23% Pennsylvania | -1.36% Rhode Island | -32.37% South Carolina | 10.42% South Dakota | 16.73% Tennessee | 6.44% Texas | 17.23% Utah | 44.05% Vermont | -13.40% Virginia | 2.40% Washington | -5.34% West Virginia | -1.05% Wisconsin | -1.61%
|
bummer
Well, Kerry hasn't been seen or heard of for about a week now - that's why his poll numbers are up. I'm hoping he'll drop once he gets out in front of the cameras again.
no offense, but GWB is going to win big and these polls are meaningless....
I just can not believe come election day that America will go to the polling booths and vote for....Halting the booming economy and handing over our National interests to the corrupt UN and France....!
I'm not offended and agree that a big Bush win is likely. I expect to see that showing up in this analysis by early September.
This is really really really freaking sad, you know? I do not see how people can vote for Kerry or against Bush. Bush is a real leader, and Kerry is so obviously a preening French appeaser. Revolting.
I agree that W is going to win big. I also tire of the self-fulfilling-prophecy polls coming out of the likes of the L.A. Times.
And NH is only in contention because of all the idiots that were smart enough to flee Massachusetts for a better place but too stupid to remember why. I wish they would all go back.
You can say that again. There is almost no value to polling, no matter how well it is conducted, at this stage of the process. In this Presidential election there are a number of extremely volatile elements that make a view 4 months out worthless. The situation in Iraq may generate surprises, positive or negative in impact throughout the pre-election season. Domestic terrorist attacks can have an impact, and no one can say how they could break since we've never experienced one in an election season.
The point about this poll/analysis that needs to be made is best pointed out by a look to the alleged precision of the results (two decimal places!). The confusion of precision and accuracy is often made - but here the claim of precision to that extent should make anyone instantly suspicious.
I still have a gut sense that Bush could surpass 370 EV - but that's based on pure seat-of-the-pants estimation.
Your optimism is heartening, but it will not help unless every Freeper gets at least 20 people to vote for Bush. We definitely need the military vote too and must make every effort to stop the RATS from keeping that vote out of the system as they did in FL last time.
yes, it's important that we stay on the beam, but GWB is going to be elected by Seniors, Jews and Women.....
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm:
All of the polls cited by this group note that the President is leading or tied in a head-to-head match-up with Kerry -- with the exception of the DEBUNKED LA Times Poll!
PROBLEMS WITH THIS ANALYSIS:
1.) This group uses the DEBUNKED LA Times poll to give Ohio to Kerry -- puhleeeeeeeeeeeeze! The recent Mason Dixon poll verified that Bush leads Kerry in Ohio 6 points!!!
2.) This group ignores the new SurveyUSA poll which verifies that THE PRESIDENT HOLDS A 7 POINT LEAD IN FLORIDA!
3.) This group makes many of its state predictions based on results from the grossly INVALID ZOGBY ON-LINE INTERACTIVE POLL. 'Nuf said!
I don't see how Ohio can be in the Kerry column...the latest poll, conducted for the Cleveland Plain Dealer, gave Bush a six point lead; it was released about three weeks ago, and I haven't seen a more recent poll. A lot of these so-called polsters and analysts must be dipping into Zogby's secret sauce...
1. I use whatever poll comes out the week of the composite, in the hope that the errors in various polls might average out. You'll note that I tell you the numbers if I hadn't used the LA Times poll. The LA Times Ohio poll is used, but along with other polls in the last month showing a Kerry lead of 7, and Bush leads of 6 and 2.
You'll notice that the Ohio lead for Kerry is a statisitically insignificant 0.16, but since that's how the math worked out, I'll call it for Kerry.
2. The Florida poll was released after the analysis and will be reflected in next weeks'.
3. The Zogby Interactive Polls are not used at all in this analysis.
Look at some interesting state figures -
Virginia (large black population, plus govt workers in NoVa)
NC (closer than Missouri)
Republicans thought this would be coronation as recently as January 04. IMHO, Bush - Cheney will win, but 'twont be the Nixon - McGovern blow-out they expected.
Here is something to think about also:
McCain - Ventura on the Reform Ticket.
Impossible? - remember how fast and furious things happened in summer of '92 ...
I've been tracking how the state polls are relative to each other, and came up with this:
Zogby 7.0
Rasmussen 3.5
ARG 3.4
Research 2000 2.9
LA Times 0.9
Mason-Dixon 0.9
SUSA 0.0
Sorry I don't have time to format this better.
SUSA is the most accurate using a methodology of using 2000 as a base line. (that is, take the 2000 results and add or subtract the national results to guess where a state is).
I have read the 3 most accurate polls last time were Mason-Dixon, SUSA and Research 2000. I have just a few Research 2000 polls in my sample so far, so their skewedness may easily be just random fluctuation. The ARG, Rasmussen and Zogby polls aren't, however, as there is a lot of data for them.
The Zogby poll results are just the first batch. I quit following them as it's methodology and results disqualify it from being considered, but the skewedness of 7 towards Kerry gives some idea of how unreliable it is.
At any rate, any methodology which relies on the Zogby, Rasmussen, and ARG state polls will present a look at the election picture which is rose-colored from a Kerry perspective.
I just can not believe come election day that America will go to the polling booths and vote for....Halting the booming economy and handing over our National interests to the corrupt UN and France....!
Unfortunately, I can... After all, the media has been campaigning against Bush since the day his administration began. If Bush loses, we can blame the media coupled with the stupidity of 50% of the population.
FYI, I just freeped an online Zogby poll. You can bet the rats are also trying to influence the results.
So many decimals! This is an example of the non-synonymousness of precision versus accuracy.
Sorry, did not realize this was your analysis!
[FYI: I assumed you used Zogby Interactive results because you called West Virginia for Kerry. According to RealPolitics, the last poll for WVA (and the only one to call it for Kerry) was a Zogby Interactive poll!]
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