no offense, but GWB is going to win big and these polls are meaningless....
I'm not offended and agree that a big Bush win is likely. I expect to see that showing up in this analysis by early September.
I agree that W is going to win big. I also tire of the self-fulfilling-prophecy polls coming out of the likes of the L.A. Times.
And NH is only in contention because of all the idiots that were smart enough to flee Massachusetts for a better place but too stupid to remember why. I wish they would all go back.
You can say that again. There is almost no value to polling, no matter how well it is conducted, at this stage of the process. In this Presidential election there are a number of extremely volatile elements that make a view 4 months out worthless. The situation in Iraq may generate surprises, positive or negative in impact throughout the pre-election season. Domestic terrorist attacks can have an impact, and no one can say how they could break since we've never experienced one in an election season.
The point about this poll/analysis that needs to be made is best pointed out by a look to the alleged precision of the results (two decimal places!). The confusion of precision and accuracy is often made - but here the claim of precision to that extent should make anyone instantly suspicious.
I still have a gut sense that Bush could surpass 370 EV - but that's based on pure seat-of-the-pants estimation.
Your optimism is heartening, but it will not help unless every Freeper gets at least 20 people to vote for Bush. We definitely need the military vote too and must make every effort to stop the RATS from keeping that vote out of the system as they did in FL last time.
"...GWB is going to win big..."
Yup. Just wait until the debates. It's gonna be great to watch JFK squirm and stutter. hehhehheh
You know, I love your style and, as you know, have even identified your stuff by your headlines.
But what is your record as a predictor? Exactly?
Dan