bummer
Well, Kerry hasn't been seen or heard of for about a week now - that's why his poll numbers are up. I'm hoping he'll drop once he gets out in front of the cameras again.
no offense, but GWB is going to win big and these polls are meaningless....
I just can not believe come election day that America will go to the polling booths and vote for....Halting the booming economy and handing over our National interests to the corrupt UN and France....!
This is really really really freaking sad, you know? I do not see how people can vote for Kerry or against Bush. Bush is a real leader, and Kerry is so obviously a preening French appeaser. Revolting.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm:
All of the polls cited by this group note that the President is leading or tied in a head-to-head match-up with Kerry -- with the exception of the DEBUNKED LA Times Poll!
PROBLEMS WITH THIS ANALYSIS:
1.) This group uses the DEBUNKED LA Times poll to give Ohio to Kerry -- puhleeeeeeeeeeeeze! The recent Mason Dixon poll verified that Bush leads Kerry in Ohio 6 points!!!
2.) This group ignores the new SurveyUSA poll which verifies that THE PRESIDENT HOLDS A 7 POINT LEAD IN FLORIDA!
3.) This group makes many of its state predictions based on results from the grossly INVALID ZOGBY ON-LINE INTERACTIVE POLL. 'Nuf said!
Look at some interesting state figures -
Virginia (large black population, plus govt workers in NoVa)
NC (closer than Missouri)
Republicans thought this would be coronation as recently as January 04. IMHO, Bush - Cheney will win, but 'twont be the Nixon - McGovern blow-out they expected.
Here is something to think about also:
McCain - Ventura on the Reform Ticket.
Impossible? - remember how fast and furious things happened in summer of '92 ...
I've been tracking how the state polls are relative to each other, and came up with this:
Zogby 7.0
Rasmussen 3.5
ARG 3.4
Research 2000 2.9
LA Times 0.9
Mason-Dixon 0.9
SUSA 0.0
Sorry I don't have time to format this better.
SUSA is the most accurate using a methodology of using 2000 as a base line. (that is, take the 2000 results and add or subtract the national results to guess where a state is).
I have read the 3 most accurate polls last time were Mason-Dixon, SUSA and Research 2000. I have just a few Research 2000 polls in my sample so far, so their skewedness may easily be just random fluctuation. The ARG, Rasmussen and Zogby polls aren't, however, as there is a lot of data for them.
The Zogby poll results are just the first batch. I quit following them as it's methodology and results disqualify it from being considered, but the skewedness of 7 towards Kerry gives some idea of how unreliable it is.
At any rate, any methodology which relies on the Zogby, Rasmussen, and ARG state polls will present a look at the election picture which is rose-colored from a Kerry perspective.
So many decimals! This is an example of the non-synonymousness of precision versus accuracy.
One of the more dishonest presentations, claiming 47.17% vs 48.66%. I really don't think the Federal Review staff really know things to .01% or 1 part in 10,000. More honest would be Bush about 47% and Kerry about 49%.
Small problem: the last Ohio poll (Rasmussen) had Bush UP in OHIO. Flip that electoral chart by 40 EVs.
Any poll that includes the LA Times poll is BS.
The LA Times poll is included in the composite. Worthless.