Then show a Bush lead. This is so simple.
That's funny. The reason that I constructed formulas is to get my bias out of it. Otherwise, I'd show what I really think, which is a Bush win by no less than 30 electoral votes. In fact, there may be a basic bias in the formula and my unwillingness to exclude the LA Times poll.
If the LA Times poll is really aberrant, I think it is, then this analysis will show a more dramatic shift toward Bush next week. Although it may take a while for the states to swing back since I weight the more recent polls more heavily.