Posted on 06/14/2004 2:18:17 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 94.1 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 92.6 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 68.1 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 69.1 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 14.4 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 80.9 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 8.1 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 18.1 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 59.9 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 91.1 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 9.8 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 96.9 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 11.1 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 94.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 44.9 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 92.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 87.1 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 84.9 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 19.9 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 11.1 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 5.9 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 36.9 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 33.9 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 94.9 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 63.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 92.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 95.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 63.1 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 52.0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 20.1 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 54.3 | 5 | 0 |
| New York | 9.9 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 83.9 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 94.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 61.2 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 98.9 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 45.1 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 47.7 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.1 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 91.9 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 93.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 86.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 98.8 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 94.6 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 5.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 82.1 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 24.9 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 63.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 41.4 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 98.9 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 283 | 255 |
Well, lets see now.
Bush gave Americans tax relief, not once, not twice, but three times. Bush has increased defense spending. And Bush remains a strong pro-life President. That's a pretty good conservative record.
Any Republican that expresses a desire to vote for Kerry or Nadar over PresBush, isn't a Republican.
Isn't this prediction just Election 2000 all over again. I mean, what's changed? I can't recall 2 consecutive elections where some states didn't flip. Color me skeptical.
Only New Hampshire and New Mexico are states Bush is projected to win with less than 55% probability. (Next closest: Florida at 59.9%, Ohio at 61.2%.) Those two states NH and NM total 9 EVs and if all else happened as projected here, Bush would still win.
Meanwhile, Kerry's totals here are aided by two "leaners", Oregon and Pennsylvania, for 28 total EVs. Needless to say, if either of them swung the other way, that would be give Bush some breathing room. Kerry also "leads" Iowa's 7 EVs by only 55.1% and Wisconsin's 7 EVs by 58.6%.
In short, Kerry's projected-count here is built on more tenuous leads than Bush's is.
Personally, I think that Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan and maybe New Jersey are in play. That does not bode well of Kerry.
Ditto. It will be suicide to not vote vor Bush over some pet issue.
No matter how you stack them up. Bush is more conservative than Kerry.
I agree, the results of the 2000 Presidential Election are very similar to the projection of the results of the 2004 Presidential Election.
Currently, the only state that has changed is New Mexico, from Democrat in 2000 to Republican in 2004.
In addition, the Republican candidate gains a few Electoral Votes from reapportionment due to the 2000 Census.
If anyone of them vote for either of those complete idiots then they themselves have VERY SEVERE MENTAL AND EMOTIONAL ISSUES!
I worry most about those new "no recount" electonic voting machines in Dem districts. We know about election fraud already, right?
With Edwards on the ticket, GWB loses the great state
of North Carolina, might lose NC no matter who the
second slot might be.
How do you figure that? Edwards re-elect numbers for his senate seat we very bad. Why would he do any better as a veep candidate?
I see a WV and PENN victory for GW.........
I am still worried about Florida...I just can not see why with JEB and the SOUTH not very FONDA KERRY giving him the nod.......
Jersey....going more Pubbie but maybe not enough.
Wisc. seems to be moving right.
And being from California I would love to see at least one west coastal state go conservative! GO OREGAN!
Can anyone tell me why ARNOLD has yet to get involved iin the campaigm season here out west? Everything this guy has backed has done a 180!
Interesting thread. Tagged.
I doubt Edwards would have been in trouble in his
campaign if he had attempted reelection. His numbers
might have been low but he is a money raising machine and he probably would have won a second senate term easily.
This state is pretty evenly split Demo/Repub. The determining factor is the military. I talk to a lot
of soldiers from Bragg and Marines from Lejune. Freepers
will tell me to go to the liberal boards when I suggest
that GWB is not as popular with the armed forces as they
think.
The Marine Corp is especially upset at how the Corp is being used and length of deployment in Iraq.
I find I get my dander up much more quickly with conservative who suggest not voting than libs who say they will vote for Kerry.
I get the exact opposite from the Marine reservists here in the Heartland. These are the folks who put their lives on hold to serve and they seem to feel they are doing a job that needs to be done. I also don't see a lot of these Marines voting for Kerry. His after Vietnam actions are a major turnoff for most service members that I know.
I never implied that the military I consider friends
would ever vote for John Kerry. They are simply not
as enthused about GWB's leadership as the couch commandoes
would seem to believe.
90 % (my guess) of the active duty combat forces are conservative but not Republican all the time. It awfully
easy to be so unenthused the voter doesn't bother to fill the absentee or visit the ballot box.
Well, Tradesports (above) gives Bush an 83% chance of carrying NC. Edwards would make it tighter, but I can't see him pulling it over to Kerry.
The "Get Out The Vote" program is very strong in the military. We receive General Military Training a couple of times a year on how to go about voting, especially while deployed. We are strongly encouraged to exercise the right we fight for. I would say the military vote will go 85% for Bush. The other 15% are either in it for the college money or are totally shocked that their recruiter didn't tell them about combat at the MEPS station.
With the military vote receiving so much attention last year in the Florida debacle, I think we'll see a record number of military votes cast (not necessarily counted). Don't beleive the 5 maligned military mouthpieces on CBS. The military is much better off under Bush, and we know it. A nice series of pay raises, better toys to play with, plus the wonderful feeling that the very top of your chain-of-command likes you. He really does!
Other than the rabid anti-abortion vote, the GWB support
here in NC is shaky at best. Bowles will probably
retain Edwards Demo seat and that will hurt GWB if he does.
I cannot see GWB having coattails unless things change.I am also concerned about losing the Senate majority.
Eesh, 80+% Bush for VA? I doubt it. With the various illegals and minorities in the populous N. VA area, the state is trending more Dem all the time. The rest of the state is of course strongly repub.
On the other hand, i still think there's a chance for Calif. to go republican depending on how well Arnie does.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.