Eesh, 80+% Bush for VA? I doubt it. With the various illegals and minorities in the populous N. VA area, the state is trending more Dem all the time. The rest of the state is of course strongly repub.
On the other hand, i still think there's a chance for Calif. to go republican depending on how well Arnie does.
I assume you realize that the meaning of the 80% number is not that it's a prediction that 80% of VA will vote for Bush. Rather, it's estimate that VA has an 80% chance of going for Bush. (The actual margin of victory could be 51-49...)
Nothing you wrote here contradicts the notion that VA has an 80% chance of going for Bush.