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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, June 14, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 06/14/2004 2:18:17 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 94.1 9 0
Alaska 92.6 3 0
Arizona 68.1 10 0
Arkansas 69.1 6 0
California 14.4 0 55
Colorado 80.9 9 0
Connecticut 8.1 0 7
Delaware 18.1 0 3
District of Columbia 0.9 0 3
Florida 59.9 27 0
Georgia 91.1 15 0
Hawaii 9.8 0 4
Idaho 96.9 4 0
Illinois 11.1 0 21
Indiana 94.9 11 0
Iowa 44.9 0 7
Kansas 92.1 6 0
Kentucky 87.1 8 0
Louisiana 84.9 9 0
Maine 19.9 0 4
Maryland 11.1 0 10
Massachusetts 5.9 0 12
Michigan 36.9 0 17
Minnesota 33.9 0 10
Mississippi 94.9 6 0
Missouri 63.9 11 0
Montana 92.1 3 0
Nebraska 95.1 5 0
Nevada 63.1 5 0
New Hampshire 52.0 4 0
New Jersey 20.1 0 15
New Mexico 54.3 5 0
New York 9.9 0 31
North Carolina 83.9 15 0
North Dakota 94.1 3 0
Ohio 61.2 20 0
Oklahoma 98.9 7 0
Oregon 45.1 0 7
Pennsylvania 47.7 0 21
Rhode Island 4.1 0 4
South Carolina 91.9 8 0
South Dakota 93.1 3 0
Tennessee 86.9 11 0
Texas 98.8 34 0
Utah 94.6 5 0
Vermont 5.1 0 3
Virginia 82.1 13 0
Washington 24.9 0 11
West Virginia 63.0 5 0
Wisconsin 41.4 0 10
Wyoming 98.9 3 0
Totals   283 255


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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To: Abram
>>>Please President Bush, act like a conservative....!!!!

Well, lets see now.

Bush gave Americans tax relief, not once, not twice, but three times. Bush has increased defense spending. And Bush remains a strong pro-life President. That's a pretty good conservative record.

Any Republican that expresses a desire to vote for Kerry or Nadar over PresBush, isn't a Republican.

21 posted on 06/14/2004 2:40:37 PM PDT by Reagan Man (The choice is clear. Reelect BUSH-CHENEY !)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Isn't this prediction just Election 2000 all over again. I mean, what's changed? I can't recall 2 consecutive elections where some states didn't flip. Color me skeptical.


22 posted on 06/14/2004 2:40:52 PM PDT by Elpasser (Sad decline of the DMN)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Interesting to look at the "leaners" (states a candidate is leading, but only slightly):

Only New Hampshire and New Mexico are states Bush is projected to win with less than 55% probability. (Next closest: Florida at 59.9%, Ohio at 61.2%.) Those two states NH and NM total 9 EVs and if all else happened as projected here, Bush would still win.

Meanwhile, Kerry's totals here are aided by two "leaners", Oregon and Pennsylvania, for 28 total EVs. Needless to say, if either of them swung the other way, that would be give Bush some breathing room. Kerry also "leads" Iowa's 7 EVs by only 55.1% and Wisconsin's 7 EVs by 58.6%.

In short, Kerry's projected-count here is built on more tenuous leads than Bush's is.

23 posted on 06/14/2004 2:42:43 PM PDT by Dr. Frank fan
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To: mad puppy

Personally, I think that Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan and maybe New Jersey are in play. That does not bode well of Kerry.


24 posted on 06/14/2004 2:43:02 PM PDT by JLS
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To: Sybeck1; susiek

Ditto. It will be suicide to not vote vor Bush over some pet issue.

No matter how you stack them up. Bush is more conservative than Kerry.


25 posted on 06/14/2004 2:49:33 PM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (I will never give up. So don't ask me.)
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To: Elpasser
Isn't this prediction just Election 2000 all over again. I mean, what's changed?

I agree, the results of the 2000 Presidential Election are very similar to the projection of the results of the 2004 Presidential Election.

Currently, the only state that has changed is New Mexico, from Democrat in 2000 to Republican in 2004.

In addition, the Republican candidate gains a few Electoral Votes from reapportionment due to the 2000 Census.

26 posted on 06/14/2004 2:53:30 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Abram
Too many Republicans that I know are very disgruntled with Bush...they are not yet willing to vote for Nader/Kerry, but they might just.

If anyone of them vote for either of those complete idiots then they themselves have VERY SEVERE MENTAL AND EMOTIONAL ISSUES!

27 posted on 06/14/2004 2:54:37 PM PDT by AmericaUnited (It's time someone says the emperor has no clothes.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

I worry most about those new "no recount" electonic voting machines in Dem districts. We know about election fraud already, right?


28 posted on 06/14/2004 2:57:56 PM PDT by tinamina
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To: mad puppy

With Edwards on the ticket, GWB loses the great state
of North Carolina, might lose NC no matter who the
second slot might be.


29 posted on 06/14/2004 3:02:34 PM PDT by dwilli
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To: dwilli

How do you figure that? Edwards re-elect numbers for his senate seat we very bad. Why would he do any better as a veep candidate?


30 posted on 06/14/2004 3:06:05 PM PDT by Bombard
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To: Momaw Nadon

I see a WV and PENN victory for GW.........

I am still worried about Florida...I just can not see why with JEB and the SOUTH not very FONDA KERRY giving him the nod.......

Jersey....going more Pubbie but maybe not enough.

Wisc. seems to be moving right.

And being from California I would love to see at least one west coastal state go conservative! GO OREGAN!

Can anyone tell me why ARNOLD has yet to get involved iin the campaigm season here out west? Everything this guy has backed has done a 180!


31 posted on 06/14/2004 3:07:21 PM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: Momaw Nadon

Interesting thread. Tagged.


32 posted on 06/14/2004 3:21:58 PM PDT by The_Macallan
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To: Bombard

I doubt Edwards would have been in trouble in his
campaign if he had attempted reelection. His numbers
might have been low but he is a money raising machine and he probably would have won a second senate term easily.

This state is pretty evenly split Demo/Repub. The determining factor is the military. I talk to a lot
of soldiers from Bragg and Marines from Lejune. Freepers
will tell me to go to the liberal boards when I suggest
that GWB is not as popular with the armed forces as they
think.

The Marine Corp is especially upset at how the Corp is being used and length of deployment in Iraq.


33 posted on 06/14/2004 3:31:06 PM PDT by dwilli
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To: susiek

I find I get my dander up much more quickly with conservative who suggest not voting than libs who say they will vote for Kerry.


34 posted on 06/14/2004 3:37:14 PM PDT by hilaryrhymeswithrich (God has reason to smile, a favorite son has come home. God Bless Ronald Reagan!)
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To: dwilli

I get the exact opposite from the Marine reservists here in the Heartland. These are the folks who put their lives on hold to serve and they seem to feel they are doing a job that needs to be done. I also don't see a lot of these Marines voting for Kerry. His after Vietnam actions are a major turnoff for most service members that I know.


35 posted on 06/14/2004 3:56:20 PM PDT by Bombard
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To: Bombard

I never implied that the military I consider friends
would ever vote for John Kerry. They are simply not
as enthused about GWB's leadership as the couch commandoes
would seem to believe.

90 % (my guess) of the active duty combat forces are conservative but not Republican all the time. It awfully
easy to be so unenthused the voter doesn't bother to fill the absentee or visit the ballot box.


36 posted on 06/14/2004 4:14:50 PM PDT by dwilli
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To: dwilli

Well, Tradesports (above) gives Bush an 83% chance of carrying NC. Edwards would make it tighter, but I can't see him pulling it over to Kerry.


37 posted on 06/14/2004 4:21:47 PM PDT by Republic If You Can Keep It
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To: dwilli

The "Get Out The Vote" program is very strong in the military. We receive General Military Training a couple of times a year on how to go about voting, especially while deployed. We are strongly encouraged to exercise the right we fight for. I would say the military vote will go 85% for Bush. The other 15% are either in it for the college money or are totally shocked that their recruiter didn't tell them about combat at the MEPS station.

With the military vote receiving so much attention last year in the Florida debacle, I think we'll see a record number of military votes cast (not necessarily counted). Don't beleive the 5 maligned military mouthpieces on CBS. The military is much better off under Bush, and we know it. A nice series of pay raises, better toys to play with, plus the wonderful feeling that the very top of your chain-of-command likes you. He really does!


38 posted on 06/14/2004 4:34:01 PM PDT by Per-Ling
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To: Republic If You Can Keep It

Other than the rabid anti-abortion vote, the GWB support
here in NC is shaky at best. Bowles will probably
retain Edwards Demo seat and that will hurt GWB if he does.

I cannot see GWB having coattails unless things change.I am also concerned about losing the Senate majority.


39 posted on 06/14/2004 4:41:20 PM PDT by dwilli
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To: Momaw Nadon

Eesh, 80+% Bush for VA? I doubt it. With the various illegals and minorities in the populous N. VA area, the state is trending more Dem all the time. The rest of the state is of course strongly repub.

On the other hand, i still think there's a chance for Calif. to go republican depending on how well Arnie does.


40 posted on 06/14/2004 4:42:19 PM PDT by mikenola
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