Posted on 06/14/2004 2:18:17 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
OK. I'll ignore what I'm told and what I feel.
I assume you realize that the meaning of the 80% number is not that it's a prediction that 80% of VA will vote for Bush. Rather, it's estimate that VA has an 80% chance of going for Bush. (The actual margin of victory could be 51-49...)
Nothing you wrote here contradicts the notion that VA has an 80% chance of going for Bush.
As do I. Self styled conservatives who'd rather sit out an election or vote Dem than vote for a Republican who is generally conservative - but not PERFECT - in their eyes is far more of a RINO than any pro-choice or anti-gun or (name your pet cause) Republican anywhere in this country.
These types unfailingly strike me as the cry babys in the schoolyard who would always take their ball and go home because - well, "THAT guy isn't playing the game exactly the way I want to play it!" Disgraceful.
If Gephardt is Kerry's running mate I would assume they will take Missouri. That leaves Bush with 272 and Kerry with 266.
You don't hear too much about "Borken Glass Republicans" this election year.
Borken=Broken
My experience, exactly. Furthermore, the young man I spoke with just two days ago, who had just returned from Iraq, was very proud of the Falujah ops and of the professionalism they all maintain and exhibit.He has one child and one on the way and instead of opting out, is switching units so he can train reservists here at home. The urban fighting used in Falujah was absolutely terrific, in his estimation.
Most military/vets are totally puzzled at why anyone in the services would ever vote for Kerry. Not only did he malign and dishonor the troops after coming home in the 70s,not only is his Senate record on the military horrendous, he is totally responsible for POW-MIAs being abandoned. He was given the chairmanship of the POW-MIA Commission during the Iran-Contra hearings and he is on record as calling the relatives and vets who wanted us to go after those left behind: mentally ill publicity seekers.
Many of the Rolling Thunder bikers are Vietnam Vets and they are supporting W.
I would love to be present to hear more than one griper go on public record as being for Kerry in a group of active/returned military. I have certainly heard what the troops think of those who joined for the college money, picked Infantry (101st Airborne) for the thrill of it and then were shocked to be the 1st out to Afghanistan and Iraq.
During a performance of the Blue Angels this weekend, a retired aircraft maintainance specialist was explaining the uses of the C-130 they use to demonstrate JATO. He suggested Kerry be palletized, shrink wrapped and dropped w/o a chute. He was gleeful and got a big laugh. He is normally a Democrat/Green voter.
Even Gebhardt on the ticket will not win Missouri for Kerry. No way.
You know, I've been watching this poll since it's been on here. I just want know, though, how close Tradesports.com did in the last election. In other words, how close were they to calling the race as it actually happened???
Forts See Drop in Re-Enlistments
AP
Re-enlistments have plunged at Fort Riley, Forty Carson and several other Army posts where combat teams have recently returned from Iraq.
At Fort Riley, recruiters have signed only 50-percent of their quota for first-term re-enlistees, and 57-percent for mid-career soldiers. And recruitment figures show post recruiters have met only 57-percent of their quota for re-enlisting first-term soldiers since Fort Carson units began returning in April.
Recruiters say they're also re-enlisting only 46-percent of the quota for "mid-career'' noncommissioned officers, young sergeants with four to ten years of experience who are considered key to the Army's future. The numbers reflect the current quarter, which ends June 30.
At Fort Bragg, North Carolina, recruiters have met 65-percent of their goal for first-term soldiers and 80-percent of the goal for mid-career soldiers.
Much much much closer than it has been in a while. :(
Military Recruiting, Retention Picture Looks Good
By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Aug. 28, 2003 – Despite predictions to the contrary, Americans are continuing to volunteer for the military, and those already in service are re- enlisting at a vigorous rate.
Early in the global war on terrorism, many critics predicted the United States would have to return to the draft to man the forces. But in this 30th year of the all-volunteer force, the military continues to meet recruiting and retention goals.
"It's really too early to see what effect Operation Iraqi Freedom will have on recruiting, but the most recent statistics are encouraging," said Air Force Maj. Sandy Burr, a Pentagon spokeswoman. Burr said DoD is making all quality and quantity goals. "We are exceeding the DoD benchmark for percentage of high school graduates and the percentage of people in the upper half of the (armed forces entrance exam)."
Service officials point to the hard work by recruiters as the key to the success, but they also say increased patriotism as a result of the war on terror and a bleak economic picture in many areas also may play a role in attracting young people to the military.
The Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps all are on course to make year-end recruiting goals. In the reserve components, the Army National Guard is lagging a bit, but officials have dedicated extra resources to the shortfall and expect to make the recruiting goals by Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year.
The Air Force made its recruiting goals for fiscal 2003, enlisting 32,000 new airmen. This was the fourth year in a row that the service met its goal.
The Navy also is meeting all recruiting goals for fiscal 2003. Navy Recruiting Command officials said the service is on track to bring in 41,767 new sailors. The Navy's retention picture is so good this year, the service was able to lower its goal from the 48,000-recruit target set at the beginning of fiscal 2003.
The Army is doing "very, very well," said Doug Smith, a spokesman with the Army Recruiting Command. The service fully anticipates hitting its recruiting targets this year, as the service has since fiscal 2000, Smith said. Through August, the Army has recruited 67,354 soldiers, with enough enrolled under the delayed entry program to make the 73,800 needed by the end of September. Again, retention has driven down the number of new soldiers needed. The Army's recruiting goal at the beginning of the fiscal year was set at 76,000.
The Marine Corps continues its string of excellent recruiting years. The Corps will "ship" 38,914 recruits to its two training bases. The Marines have monthly, rather than annual, shipping quotas. If the service continues to achieve its recruiting goals through November, it will have done so for 100 straight months.
Retention also is up across the services. This is especially true of service members making the choice to re-enlist following their first term in the service. In the Navy, the "Zone A" re-enlistment rate from October 2002 to June 2003 was 70.3 percent. The Navy's goal was 56 percent.
Air Force "first termers" re-enlisted at a 60 percent rate. The service was shooting for 55 percent. The Army needed 13,833 first-term soldiers to re- enlist. Instead 14,599 soldiers re-upped, for 106 percent of the retention target.
The Marine Corps did not have retention figures available.
Complicating the retention picture, however, is the end of the Stop-Loss program. The program, which halts separations and retirements in critical specialties during war or crisis, has been lifted. Army officials said they do not expect to see the end of the program mirrored in retention statistics until the first or second quarters of fiscal 2004.
Air Force spokeswoman Jennifer Stephens said the service has not seen the great exodus that many forecast when stop-loss ended.
In all cases, the services are not taking anything for granted. The Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps will continue to push to get the best, most- qualified people in the military. Officials at all the service recruiting commands said the recruiters are doing outstanding work, and all the services are looking at ways to make recruiters' lives – and their families' lives – easier.
Burr said the Defense Department will continue to examine the recruiting and retention statistics and make program changes as needed.
Navy Meets Fiscal Year 2003 Recruiting Goal
from Navy News Service
Oct 12 2003
By Journalist 2nd Class Chris Conklin, Commander, Navy Recruiting Command Public Affairs
MILLINGTON, TN -- September 30 marked the end of another successful recruiting year for the U.S. Navy, and the 26th consecutive month that the sea service’s recruiting force attained its national mission goals for accessions and new contracts.
Navy Recruiting Command accessed 41,076 recruits in fiscal year 2003, with a national enlisted goal of 41,165, which allowed a range of +25/-100.
"Navy Recruiting's success over the past year can be attributed directly to the hard work and dedication of the entire Navy Recruiting team,” said Rear Adm. Jeffrey L. Fowler, commander, Navy Recruiting Command. “I am proud to lead such an energetic, professional group of men and women who work daily to find the highly skilled recruits needed to man the Navy's ever-evolving, high-tech platforms.
Recruiters truly are shaping the Navy of the future, as they recruit the best and brightest young men and women to serve in the world's greatest Navy,” he said.
The buzz of Navy Recruiting’s success echoes through its ranks, even to some of its newest recruiters in the field. Machinist's Mate 1st Class (SS) Jason Rubenstein of Overland Park, Kan., has been in recruiting for only six months, but is excited about his opportunity to be part of its success.
“I think it’s great. It’s been great so far to see what we do in the field,” said Rubenstein. “It’s good to be a part of something so big. I look forward to returning to the fleet and seeing firsthand the product that I helped to create.”
The Navy began FY03 with a national enlisted accession goal of 48,000. This goal was cut by nearly 7,000 throughout the year due to unprecedented retention rates of active-duty Sailors, reductions in attrition and sustained achievement of monthly recruiting goals. Navy Recruiting took advantage of this goal cut to concentrate on specific needs of the fleet and increasing the quality of Sailors in the fleet, by implementing tactics that would bring a more well-rounded Sailor to its ranks.
Earlier this year, Navy Recruiting Command raised the minimum Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) score of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery from 31 to 35. During FY03, the Navy implemented a policy requiring 94 percent of new recruits be high school diploma graduates (HSDG), and Navy recruiters succeeded by recruiting 94.3 percent HSDG; the Department of Defense requirement is 90 percent. Navy Recruiting continued to seek the best and brightest young men and women by requiring that 62 percent of recruits score above 50 on the AFQT; Navy recruiters excelled with a rate of 65.7 percent for FY03, while the DoD goal was 60 percent.
Navy recruiting also sought to increase the number of recruits with college experience in FY03, recruiting more than 3,200 applicants with at least 12 semester hours of college. Navy recruiters continued to fill jobs that have experienced manning shortfalls in the fleet, by dramatically reducing the number of priority ratings from 39 to just six by the end of the fiscal year.
Although the changes make the job more challenging to recruiters, it helps to focus on specific needs of the Navy and ensure that recruits are the best qualified to succeed in today’s highly technical Navy. “It’s a bit easier when we have in mind what the Navy needs,” said Navy Counselor 1st Class Susan Smith of Navy Recruiting Station Savannah, Ga., a recruiter for five years.
Navy Recruiting Command was also successful in Naval Reserve recruiting by exceeding the enlisted goal of 12,000 recruits for FY03.
Navy Recruiting enters FY04 with a national active-duty enlisted goal of 41,200.
Military Numbers Are Rising
Virginian-Pilot
April 14, 2004
Despite a rising tide of combat deaths and the prospect of deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan for years to come, Americans continue to volunteer for duty and are re-enlisting at record rates.
The services believe a combination of patriotism and the economy is driving people to the military and keeping them there.
"The war is not only not having a negative effect, but it is helping to reinforce the number of people who want to join," said Cmdr. John Kirby, a spokesman for the Navy's Bureau of Personnel.
Even the Army National Guard, which has had 150,000 citizen soldiers mobilized for up to a year, has seen retention rates "going through the roof," said Guard spokesman Maj. Robert Howell.
"Mass exodus has not been the case in the Army National Guard," said Howell, deputy chief of the Strength Maintenance Division at the National Guard Bureau in Washington.
The Guard was prepared to lose up to 18 percent of units returning from lengthy deployments, but it has averaged just 16.6 percent, with some as low as 12.6 percent, Howell said.
The Guard fully expects to again reach its recruiting goal of 56,000 members this year, to maintain its total strength of 350,000.
The Guard's goal for first-term re-enlistments , for those with less than six years of service, had been 65 percent this fiscal year but has rocketed to 141 percent - which indicates that additional members re-enlisted early, usually to take advantage of bonuses.
The goal for second- and third-term enlistments, or those considered "career" soldiers, was set at 85 percent in the Guard but has come in at 136 percent, Howell said.
The Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard all met or exceeded their year-end recruiting goals for fiscal year 2003, which ended Sept. 30. The figures continued to climb in the first half of fiscal year 2004, which was reached March 31.
The Army is at 100.1 percent of its "active duty mission," said spokesman Douglas Smith, reviewing numbers current as of March 29. Smith said 34,593 soldiers had been enlisted for the active Army and 8,331 for the Reserves. The Army has been ahead of its goal every year since 2000 and every month this year, Smith said.
The Navy is meeting all recruiting and retention goals and has cut the number of new recruits this year to the lowest target in 30 years.
Instead of bringing 41,200 new recruits into the service this fiscal year, the Navy will cut it off at 40,450, said Lt. Bill Davis with the Navy Personnel Command in Millington, Tenn.
"Thus far, through March, we've recruited 15,636, but this is normally our slow period," Davis said. "Things kick up in the summer with high school graduates. Where we've been getting 2,000 a month, we'll jump to 4,000 a month in the summer."
Navy re-enlistment rates are at an all time high, with 62.3 percent of first-term sailors signing up for additional service. That compares with a targeted goal of 56 percent. The rate has grown each year since 2000, when 48.2 percent of the first-term sailors re-enlisted.
For those with six to 10 years of service, the Navy re-enlisted 74.1 percent; its goal had been 70 percent. For those with 10 to 14 years of service, 88.7 percent re-enlisted so far this year; the goal was 85 percent.
The last time the Navy missed its recruiting goal was in 1998, Davis said.
In the Air Force, new recruit contracts are coming in at 104.2 percent of goal in fiscal year 2003 and reached 102.6 percent of goal through March.
The Air Force is retaining 67 percent of its first-term enlisted members, 75 percent of its second term, and 98 percent of its career enlisted .
Like the Army, the Marine Corps has been in the thick of combat in Iraq, yet the Marines have exceeded their monthly recruiting goal every month for the past 106 consecutive months, or for nearly nine consecutive years.
From October to December 2003 - the first quarter of fiscal year 2004 - the Marines recruited 9,201 potential members, surpassing their goal of 8,729.
Even the Coast Guard, which has grown by more than 10 percent to 40,000 since the terrorists attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, is keeping its members .
The Coast Guard has lost 7 percent to 8 percent of its force through attrition each year. In 2001 the rate was 7.65 percent; in 2002 it was 7.9 percent, said Chief Petty Officer Paul Rhynarb, at Coast Guard Headquarters in Washington.
But in 2003 the rate fell to just 2.68 percent, Rhynarb said.
Chief Petty Officer John Hoesli, who heads the Coast Guard's recruiting station in Chesapeake, responsible for recruiting from Williamsburg to Cape Hatteras, has never seen recruiting so good. His office has been the most productive in the past four years and was named the best throughout the Coast Guard in 2001.
"Whether it's patriotism, or defending the nation by keeping the fight here and keeping terrorism out of here that draws people, I don't know," Hoesli said. He suspects those are some of the reasons, along with an economy that is sending more people into the service .
While the Coast Guard aims its sights mainly at the 18- to 20- year-old recruit, Hoesli said he is seeing older, more experienced candidates in their mid- to late-20s, many with college degree.
Seems the Army needs better recruiters. The biggest numbers always come towards the end of summer. I think you'll see those posts you mentioned catch up by the end of FY.
All I know is the Navy is full, people are staying in, and the force is becoming more and more effective with more selective recruiting and senior NCOs staying the course.
The Navy & Air Force have had high recruit/retention rates for the last 40 years. Their casualty rates are minimal especially during a land war.
The Marine Corps has never had a personnel shortage as far as recruitment. I entered the Corp in January of 1968 after being placed in 1-A draft status by Sel. Service. I had trouble enlisting then because of few empty billets. I received my draft notice to report to the US Army while I was on Parris Island.
The problem in the Army and soon to be in the Corps is retention of E-5 thru E-7 with 10 years of service, the backbone of combat forces. I play golf with these type of guys 2 or 3 times a week. I know how they feel.
Since the military (Signal Corps and MI) I talk to just came back from Iraq and are quite enthused about the President's leadership, I have no clue as to what people you are talking about.
A bit of re-up education for your edification:
When deployed overseas in a combat zone (hereafter known as the CZ)it behooves the soldier coming up on reenlistment time to do so in the CZ. All bonus moneies are then tax-free, and oftentimes there are additional perks involved.
So of course units returning are going to have lower re-up rates after they come home. All the smart ones already signed a new contract!
It's too early. We'll be there in November.
He has also talked about granting amnesty to illegals, passed the Medicare Reform Act, spent money with reckless abandon, and passed protectionist steel tariffs then retracted them. He has expanded government, passed the Patriot's Act...I don't know about you, but the social issues are secondary to the fiscal conservative issues of smaller government that is less intrusive are very important to me.
Don't get me wrong...I am supporting Bush and will vote for him, but I am discouraged to hear a lot of moderate Republicans that I would have considered in the bag voters wavering on their support for the President. Yes, he is the most conservative person running that has a chance to win...but the wavering support of the middle and even some of the rightists has me concerned. Bush is moving all over the place right now. The IRAQ war is not going as well as anticipated by many Americans...there is reason to be concerned.
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