Bush's Good Week (Bush likely winner in Nov. - James J. Zogby)

Al-Jazeerah ^ | June 8, 2004 | James J. Zogby

[veronica]

After enduring a number of setbacks during a difficult spring, President Bush appears to be in the midst of a rebound. The economic news is good, the news from Iraq shows some improvement, and the President's schedule has provided him several opportunities to focus public attention on his campaign theme of "providing strong leadership for America".

As a result, the President's poll numbers have risen slightly and one prominent pundit, who has developed a scientific model that has correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1984, now says that Bush appears to be a likely winner in November.

Just one month ago, Bush was in the midst of a string of setbacks. A series of books had been published revealing embarrassing information about his presidency. The 9/11 commission provided a number of damaging challenges to the Administration. And the Abu Ghraib scandal, coupled with an insurgent driven unraveling of the military situation in Iraq-all combined to deliver serious blows to Bush's leadership image.

But the news has improved. The U.S. economy continues to grow. The Administration was boosted by news last week that the U.S. added almost one million news jobs in the past four months.

News from Iraq has also been somewhat more comforting. More flexible American tactics have provided at least short term solutions to the Fallujah insurrection and the possibility of a settlement to the Sadr rebellion.

Although the plan for the selection of Iraq's interim government didn't unfold as anticipated, the U.S.'s new flexibility put the Administration in the position of being able to embrace the outcome and call it a victory. Evidence of this was on display last week as a confident President Bush appeared in the White House Rose Garden delivering an upbeat message of Iraq now on a track for democracy. That address, coupled with Bush's appearance at the official commemoration of Washington's new World War II memorial, other Memorial Day activities, and his stirring commencement address to an obviously supportive Air Force Academy graduating class, provided the President with a number of very positive media opportunities that he used with great effectiveness.

Now in the midst of a European tour, with visits to the Vatican, Rome, Paris, and culminating at a Normandy 60th D-Day anniversary commemoration, the White House is assured of several more days of positive news stories dominating the U.S. media.

All of this has had an obvious effect on the presidential race. Bush's events have drowned out challenger John Kerry's weeklong efforts to challenge the Bush Administration's national security policy. A series of Kerry press events and policy speeches focusing on a range of initiatives have all been reduced to secondary stories in the face of the White House's blitz. With this has come an uptick in public opinion polls. A few weeks ago, Bush was trailing behind Kerry in most major polls. He now holds a slight lead in many. The country is too politically divided for any major swing to occur, but the change in the White House's fortunes has nevertheless produced measurable results.

Late last week I hosted American University professor Allan Lichtman on my Abu Dhabi TV "Viewpoint" program. Lichtman is the analyst who has developed a scientific model for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. While Lichtman has been using his model to correctly call the results of every race since 1984, he has based his approach on an analysis of the past 35 presidential contests going back to 1860. Instead of utilizing polling data, Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the society. He has identified 13 such indicators and calls them his "13 Keys". According to Lichtman for the incumbent to win reelection, he needs to hold at least eight of these "13 Keys". The "13 Keys" are:

The Incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm election;

There is no real contest for the incumbent nomination;

The incumbent-party is the current president;

There is no real third-party;

The economy is not in recession;

Per capita economic growth is improving;

The Administration effected major policy changes;

There is no major social unrest;

The incumbent is untainted by major scandal; There have been no major military or foreign policy failures;

There was a major military or foreign policy success;

The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero; and

The challenger is not charismatic and not a national hero.

According to Lichtman's assessment, Bush currently can claim the eight keys necessary to win. (Bush has "Keys" 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11 and 13.) The four "Keys" Bush loses are 6, 7, 10 and 12. "Key" nine is still unclear.

Since most of the "Keys" are macro, or long-term indicators, Lichtman sees little change possible with most of them. The two, however, that could change are numbers 9 and 11. If, for example, any of the currently outstanding investigations (9/11, Abu Ghraib, pre-Iraq war intelligence and the leak of a CIA agent's identity) expand and lead directly to the White House, then Bush will lose "Key" 9. And if Iraq takes a turn for the worse and Afghanistan, the one domestically perceived foreign policy success, unravels dramatically enough to change public perception, than Bush would lose "Key" 11 and could, therefore, according to Lichtman, be in trouble.

The situation is still somewhat fluid. But, as it stands today, if Bush's good fortune holds, his edge in the polls may remain and he could continue to hold enough "Keys" to be reelected in November.

Dr. James J. Zogby, President of the Arab American Institute

[af_vet_1981]

James Zogby and John Zogby (the pollster) are two different Zogbys..

They are brothers. They share the same parents and the same goals.

[BlackRazor]

President Reagan won 50.3% of the vote but won 45 states in his first election (that's 90% of the states).

Reagan was held to only 50.8% because 3rd party candidates got over 8% of the vote in 1980. Otherwise Reagan would have been well over 50%. Carter only got 41.0%, so Reagan had almost a 10-point advantage over him.

[Positive]

"Reagan was held to only 50.8% because 3rd party candidates got over 8% of the vote in 1980. Otherwise Reagan would have been well over 50%. Carter only got 41.0%, so Reagan had almost a 10-point advantage over him."

My point was that the percentage of the popular vote doesn't necessarily correlate to the electoral vote.

According to your numbers (I still think President Reagan got 50.3%) the most President Reagan could have gotten was 59% of the popular vote - and he did indeed win 90% of the states and around 80% of the electoral votes (of course he did win California).

[Salvation]

I thought Zogby was saying that Kery would win.......what has changed his mind?

President Reagan's passing?

[Salvation]

Humor or is this the Arab side of the news?

[wrathof59]

That's a reason in itself to be overjoyed, Alleluia!

[BlackRazor]

My point was that to score a huge electoral college victory of the magnitude of 1980, you would need to also have a substantial win in the popular vote. You seemed to indicate that Bush could win 47 states this year and still lose the popular vote. While that is theoretically true, it's not practically possible. For it to happen, Bush would simultaneously have to experience a near-total collapse in all the dark red states while at precisely the same time surge to narrow wins in most of the dark blue and all of the battleground states.

[MikeA]

"The challenger is not charismatic and not a national hero."

Give Bush this key. Kerry is neither charismatic nor considered by anyone other than partisan Democrats to be a "national hero." The lie has come off that claim with Kerry's Vietnam commanders and comrades in arms saying he's unfit to be president and with it now appearing he was claiming Purple Hearts for scratches to get out of 'Nam early. And Kerry is about as charismatic as a lump of Play Doh. You can pretty well consider that in fact Bush has 9 of Lichtman's keys, not just 8.

[Milligan]

Nice news but we have to work to get President Bush re-elect. No napping!

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Que? So much for the 'Kerrys race to lose' nonsense.

Oh I get it, he's trying to jinx it for Bush. That makes sense. LOL, someone tell the handwringers on the Gallup thread. Bush's approval numbers are going back up...about a 5% bounce already, which I predicted, and I predict another 5% bounce in the next week or 2.

[ModelBreaker]

6. Per capita economic growth is improving;

7. The Administration effected major policy changes;

How are these not factors for Bush? No question we are booming in the economy--gross and per capita. And, the tax cuts and the preemptive defense doctrine clearly qualify as major policy changes.

[pctech]

Let's not forget folks. We still have the debates coming up after the conventions are all over.

There's no way Bush will lose any of those debates. Especially since Kerry is so short tempered, all he has to do is piss him off and get "flipped" off just once. Once that happens, Kerry is toast.

Still, with world conditions the way they are and the way international terrorists want Bush to lose, there's always the outside chance that a major terrorist strike could cost Bush big time. Every Freeper needs to be on his knees praying that our President gets re-elected.

[gathersnomoss]

Aren't you getting them confused with Siskle and Ebert? My head hurts.

[hershey]

If you catch even a minute here and there of the nightly news that doesn't deal with RR's death, what you hear is Europe tripping all over each other to line up with whatever Bush wants. Someone mentioned this last night on FR. That the big shots in Europe know Kerry's an 'empty suit' and doesn't stand a chance. They will have to deal with Bush for another four years and they might as well get on with it. I bet Kerry's handlers have figured out why the news from the G-8 summit and even from the Iraqi council (militias disbanding), is falling Bush's way. I wonder when the RATs will decide not to throw good money after bad and stop funding Kerry's campaign to the hilt. Enough to keep him going, but what the heck, he's going to lose anyway. Better invest in senate races.

[watchin]

I agree - I assume it's just very poorly worded. How could the incumbent party NOT be the current president? Maybe the word "candidate" should replace "president"?

[festus]

Good gracious they're mulitplying !!!!