Posted on 06/07/2004 2:47:30 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 68.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 71.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 12.5 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 79.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 10.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 20.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 58.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 8.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 13.5 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 92.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 47.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 83.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 19.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 12.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 35.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 31.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 94.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 60.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 63.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 52.0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 20.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 53.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New York | 9.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 85.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 58.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 44.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 47.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 83.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 96.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 97.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 82.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 23.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 63.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 42.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 283 | 255 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 283 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 255 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 280.63 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
Bush still sliding, I see.
I wonder who's putting money on Kerry on those states.
Bush fell from 304 electoral votes in one week? What happened? Did one state switch?
Pennsylvania, 21 Electoral Votes.
Guiliani as Veep could very well take New York. Plus some others.
I can't even imagine what cataclysmic event would have to happen for Kerry to win Texas....I could see Bush winning California and New York before I could see Kerry coming anywhere near 40% max in Texas. God Bless the Republic of Texas !!!!
What state did he lose?
Unfortunately, he'll also come with losses in the South.
NE, Left Coast and Upper Midwest look like the People's Republic...the South, the Mid West, the plains and the Intermountain West are still holding on to America.
Actually, Dubya has a good chance of picking off OR, PA, WI and IA from the Kerry column. All in all not a bad map given the terrible news the last two months. As Iraq improves and the feeling of confidence in the economy percolates throught the summer, things will improve on this map.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
Pennsylvania, 21 Electoral Votes.
Thanks jdege!
Just for reference, can we name one incumbent that has surged late in an election? This would be to help ease my mind - (and I mean incumbent, not a VP running for Prez).
This race is much closer then any of us would like - The other fact being, we lost the premise on the economy (the ONE issue that could beat GWB) and we are paying for it now.
The silly ads the GWB team has aired about the Patriot Act are useless and a waste of money - no one (NO ONE) will be voting the Patriot Act over the economy this Nov!
Ads should have been running long ago stating the facts about our economy - stating all the good the GWB economic policies have done - wasting millions on the Patriot Act ads and still losing in National Polls is becoming trouble-some. IMO.
We only have 5 months left - Incumbents typically start pulling ahead by now (or long before). This worries me some.
IA and OR I both think are "strong" Kerry States (in the end). But, PA,WI, MN and NM are all possible pick-up States for GWB - if his campaign stops playing defense.
Naw, you're just looking at it wrong.
Here:
Truman comes to mind. Ford is another.
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