2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004

Opinion: This is silly.

Commentary: See tagline, if applicable.

I don't know what the election projection guy's methodology is. I couldn't see it states anywhere. Try Dale's site: http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/index.htm

I think Florida will be very difficult for Kerry to win. More new registrations are Republicans. No non-Southern Democrat has ever taken it. Lieberman is not on the ticket. The economy is humming. A popular Governor is the president's brother. Kerry's got a lot to overcome there.

I think tradesports.com is verg good regarding the states, except I think Bush's chances are quite a bit better than what they have listed for Minnesota.

Since the TV and Cable newsrooms refuse to expose this traitor I will.
Odd how the internet and talk radio know he's a traitor
BUT the TV and Cable newsrooms won't "question his patriotism".

Only idiots would vote for a traitor.

My favorite post for DUmmies and trolls.

"I’m an internationalist. I’d like to see our troops dispersed through [sic] the world
only at the directive of the United Nations."
Hanoi John Kerry, The Harvard Crimson, 1970

HANOI KERRY
has a Campaign Platform
Just like the old days!

"It is a fact that in the entire Vietnam War we did not lose one major battle.
We lost the war at home and at home John Kerry was the field general"
- Bob Elder, Swift Boat Veteran For Truth

"I do not believe John Kerry is fit to be commander in chief of the U.S. armed forces,"
said retired Rear Adm. Roy Hoffmann, chairman of the organization.
"This is not a political issue. It is a matter of honesty."

I was there the same time Hanoi Kerry was.
I served on the destroyer USS Corry DD-817 which supplied PCF's and PBR's
and gave gunfire support in North AND South Viet Nam.
My ship may have even supplied Hanoi Kerry's boat.
I VOW I will do everything I LEGALLY can
to keep this traitor from being elected.
68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub

The book that Kerry
wishes would just go away. HanoiJohnKerry.com is a blog with a primary purpose. That purpose is to counter the preposterous claims of Sen. John Forbes Kerry (D-MA) that he has any legitimate claim to any sort of "brotherhood" among combat veterans of the War in Vietnam.
While it is generally supposed that his service as a Naval officer on a "Swift Boat" in that theater was adequate and honorable, there is much to question regarding his readiness to allow the accolade "war hero" to be applied to him.
Likewise, it is not at all uncommon for more senior Naval officers to raise an eyebrow at the swiftness and relative comfort by which Lt. JG Kerry attained those medals, and who is available to vouch for the efficacy of his being awarded them (since, as boat commander, it would be his own task to make recommendation for awards for all personnel, including himself, on the Swift Boat).
But most egregious was his conduct, words and associations upon his early-out (from SEA) return to the USA and discharge from the US Navy. His leadership role with the radical pro-Communist (inaccurate to deem this group "anti-war") group called "Vietnam Veterans Against the [Vietnam] War" (hereafter VVAW).

It was while climbing the social and political ladder of the pro-Soviet Left as a principle of VVAW that John Kerry found his political soul-mate in Hanoi Jane Fonda. Granted, these politically formative years for Kerry were prior to the more outlandish acts of Fonda that earned her that name, but it is easily documentable that Fonda did not under go any radical transformation in belief or character from the time she and Kerry were working the same side of the street to the time she traveled to Hanoi, NVN and entered US history as the most overt traitor to ever NOT be charged, tried and executed.
John Kerry went to his own overt extremes to demonstrate that, politically, socially and in lowness of character, there wasn't a nickel's worth of difference between he and Fonda. Thus, in the spirit of fairness and accuracy, we are reasonably certain that he will be agreeably flattered by calling him Hanoi John Kerry.

Here, testifying before the Fulbright Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is where John Kerry, spokesman for Vietnam Veterans Against the War, cemented his position and moniker as "Hanoi John" Kerry. This was the occasion where US troops still in the field in Vietnam learned from one of their FORMER brothers-in-arms that they were heinous murderers and war criminals. HJK would now like to call on them for support in his bid to be the new Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. Perhaps the most preposterous hypocrisy of all.

TomEwall,

You are correct, I did ask for something "hopeful" so thanks for the Ford "late surge" reference.

I do enjoy reading your posts, you do seem to keep a very positive outlook - which is needed. I still believe GWB will win this Nov - However, I don't think I am being to negative about how the campaign has been run - there have been simple (rookie) type mistakes -

1. No GOP 527's up and running early (and I mean with the same influence that the DNC is in bed with the DEM 527's).

2. No premise was ever set on the economy - they allowed the economy to be "spun" as being in bad shape for months and months with NO response - when to anyone will to be intellectually honest, there was plenty of FACTS showing the economy was "surging"!! - Yet the GWB camp was silent!

3.The Patriot Act ads are the worst single ads I have ever seen run in a Presidential Campaign - in terms of content as well as timing!! - it is a NON-ISSUE (in fact, it only pisses off some on the Right). BTW, I'm not one of them it pisses off - but still the Patriot Act ads were useless and they spent $millions on them (wasted our grassroots money). Ads should have hit 100% on the economy -

4. Cheney (I love him, he is incredible articulate at expressing common-sense policies) Yet, he has been completely absent from the American Public - he allowed the DEM"s to demonize him as well as the war in Iraq with NO response.

5. The complete ineptness of anyone in the Administration to string together any sort of "talking points" when it comes to the success of the economy - Having NO ability to put the economy into layman's terms how the GWB team "inherited" a recession and has since turned it around. Using statistics after statistics that are readily to anyone which prove these points -

The U.S. economy is booming! From all-time low inflation to all-time low interest rates, to wages being up and taxes being down - Job growth surging and unemployment at historically low levels - we have all-time high home and auto sales - we have the DOW and NASDAQ both up hugely since Sept 11th - Construction is at 20 years highs along with the expansion rate of the manufacturing sector -

The list can go on and on - YET the GWB camp remained SILENT while the Dem's and media ran the economy DOWN -

No, there is plenty to be upset about with how the GWB camp has run this reelection - We are going to win in NOV - but if we don't - the blame lays squaring on them! Not one grass-roots member should feel even one iota of guilt for not doing enough. IMHO.

I agree with your assessment of the Bush (non) campaign so far. I've been critical of Rove for months. There's all these people who think he really knows what he's doing. They point to the fact Bush won in 2000. I say he had a clear lead and lost it in the last couple of weeks. The DUI thing was only part of that.

They, including Bush, don't know how to say something that really sticks in people's minds, nor are they any good tactically - i.e. seizing on something in the daily flow of events. For example, I remember Reagan in 1980 when he and Carter happened to show up in the same town on the same day. This was before the conventions. Reagan said to his crowd, "Some people were having trouble telling his motorcade apart from ours. It's easy to tell them apart: His turns left at every corner". Bingo!

A rough idea for an image someone might be able to work with...

Agree with you as well - I just don't see an effective campaign from the GWB camp - What has made GWB such an effective political candidate (and thus why he has been so successful) is his genuineness!

The man is authentic and genuine - this has helped him (which it should).

However, the Dem's and Media have been beating him up for over a year straight now - (definitely non-stop for the past 8 months).

With that said, it is obvious the GWB team has been on the defensive since last Oct - From Oct till now they have played Defense -

I can't see Virginia going Dem because of Rudy, or Arkansas for that matter. NC may be a possibility, but I don't think that would be likely. This is a unique election because of the Sword of Damocles hanging over our heads in the name of terrorism, and it is unsure how the death of President Reagan will affect people at the polls. I simply do not see the social issues having quite the same effect as in previous years. In many ways, this election is a watershed that will set the barometer for as long as did Reagan's election in 1980.

I believe a George-Rudy ticket would absolutely smoke Kerry and whomever. Crush them.

Bumping to serve crow in November to the boo-birds on this thread.

I think it's easy when one is passionate about something to over-react. There's a ton of that here (I'm not referring to you personally here) and on DU. What I'm trying to do is be realistic in trying to figure out what's happening. I try to analyze all the data and putting everything together get a picture of what's going on. To the best of my reckoning, Bush has had a small lead ever since Kerry was the nominee, with things being at their tightest in the last couple of months of May. If you look at the wagering sites (tradesports and the Iowa exchange), you'll see that the race tightened up, but Bush remained the favorite. On Dales site (the best of its kind by a long ways, I think) Bush has retained a very small lead. The fact that he has kept a lead when things have been very bad makes me cautiously optamistic.

On your points:
1) I agree with. They goofed here.
2) I think they've handled the economy fine. They don't have the same access to the media that Kerry has. Up until now they have chosen to expend their effort on painting Kerry negatively, and by all appearances have succeeded. In spite of 2 terrible months, and tumbling job approval ratings, Kerry was unable to take the lead
3) I'm sure they do a lot of research on the ads with focus groups and so on. I think the ads have been successful in painting Kerry negatively. The Patriot Act ad is another ad along these lines.

You're thinking too logically in your analysis of the ad. You say it's a non-issue. Most people don't think that way, in terms of issues. They form impressions based on sound bites and images. That's what these ads are seeking to do, and I think they have been successful.

I think the public sees Bush much more positively than Kerry, and this impression will be very helpful for Bush.

4. I don't know what you want Cheney to do to get in the public's eye. He can't force the press to cover him. He's been busy giving speeches, and I think effective in that role.

5. Bush does has talking points and I think is effective, in his own qualified Bush-like way, in talking about the economy. When the debates are held, he'll have plenty of opportunity to enunciate those points.

The important thing about the economy is Iraq. Look at Rasmussen's numbers. The economic indicator numbers have gone up 9 out of the last 10 days and are the highest they have been in 4 months. The last time they were higher was in January when Saddam was captured (which had nothing to do with the economy, per se). The number of people who think we're in a recession has gone way down. This is principally because of Iraq improving IMO.

Tom,

As you, I often try and see through to the bigger picture - in terms of where we are at in the race and what things are still to develop with how an election unfolds -

With that said, where I think you and I differ, is I don't think GWB has a slight lead - I think it is Kerry at this time who does - He has held a 2pt lead in the RCP Average now for over 3 weeks (and while the Avg stays around 2pts for Kerry it tends to go up in terms of Kerry reaching closer to the high 40's then the low to mid 40's). Which is troubling IMO.

Also, what do you make of the new Gallup poll showing Kerry with a 6pt lead and getting 50% (Hitting the 50% mark is trouble for Bush - big time).

GWB has had a decent two week stint (considering the previous month before) and yet Kerry grows to a 6pt lead - Something is wrong in the GWB reelection camp - it is obvious.

Much of this year (not the politics of it, mind you) but how the race is unfolding and how the GWB reelection team is "talking" reminds me 100% of 1992 when I was a Young Republican at Western Michigan University - The same defeat seems to be coming - with the same excuses being made for months and months prior to the election -

Excuses on "why" and "how" and "when this happens" - all these type reasonings were given on why Bush Sr. was going to win (yet he didn't) - while I know things are different in this race (the politics, the non-third party, etc) What I am saying it just has the same "feel" - The same lack of a coherent reelection plan - the same lame excuses for "why" we aren't winning "yet" -

I also take a totally different point of view about the economy and your suggestion that Kerry has more access to get his message out with the Media - NO WAY - GWB is the President, he can force the media to cover him and thus get his message to the American public - the problem is, he seems to be inept at setting the facts straight on the economy - setting the premise - listing the statistics that show in area after area how our U.S. economy is booming -

Yet, when GWB talks, it is usually about how the economy "isn't strong enough" or "we had some hard times" - he seems to always be starting off from the "wrong" (DEM) premise - If you start with a false premise, you are going to lose that debate every time - yet this is what the GWB reelection team continues to do with the economy -

As for Cheney - come on, Cheney went into hiding (for lack of a better term) Giving a speech every two weeks - is not enough - he should have been going State to State setting the tone on the economy and the WOT -

I'm not sure I buy the whole, Iraq is causing everything to go bad (poll wise) - it just seems to "ring" of the same excuses before his Dad lost - AND the FACT is much has gone right in Iraq - Iraq is so much better off - the World is safer - yet when Iraq gets brought up, the GWB team talks for a "wrong" premise and go into how "we know things have been hard" "we know things haven't gone well" - BS! Talk about the successes - talk about how the world is safer - talk about how much progress we have made! Don't always just talk about how things have been bad -

There is plenty of good news when it comes to the WOT - the Bush team just needs to get this out there - be willing to be on the offensive - not always playing defense.

It's possible Kerry has a slight lead. There's no question the race is close. Here's why I think Bush is ahead.

1) The Rasmussen tracking poll shows a move in Bush's direction and shows Bush ahead by 1.4% or something like that over the last week. This is a poll that IMO understates Bush by about 2 points (because of no Nader and a loose Likely Voter screen.
2) More importantly, the ancillary data on Rasmussen is all very positive. More Americans think we are winning the war on terroism. Consumer confidence has gone up 10 out of the last 11 days. The investor index has gone up a lot too. There is evidence Americans are thinking more positively about the economy. This should translate into a rise for Bush
3) Rasmussen has come up with a ton of state polls, which IMO poll favoreably for Kerry by about 3 or 4 points. In spite of a barage of these recent polls, Bush is still ahead by 1 point on Dale's site.
4) If you look at the battleground states, you get a picture where the battle is more over Gore states than Bush states. E.g. OR, NM, IA, WI, MI, MN and PA (and maybe NJ) are all in play whereas only OH, NH, FL and MO on the Kerry side. I think Bush would take all the states on his side if the election were right now, with the possible exception of NH where Bush would take some of the Gore states.
5) The sites that wager on the election, tradesports and the Iowa exchange site, have Bush ahead, and making a slight move recently.

Regarding the recent Gallup poll, I think the horse race result is an outlier, especially the likely voter result. The following things are strange in the Gallup poll:
1) The job approval was 49, which does not correspond to Bush being behind at all, let alone by 6
2) The poll shows Bush ahead by only 4 in the states he took in 2000. I don't think that's possible. Many of the states he won in 2000 were by huge amounts, including Texas, the most populous of the Bush 2000 states. I think this is understating his support in these states by a lot.
3) Bush's job approval is up by 3 from last time, yet the horse race number is down
4) The registered voter result is more favorable than the likely voter result
5) It's out of line with the other recent polls. If you look at Zogby, Rasmussen and IBD, and take into account their biases (Zogby about 4, Rasmussen 2), they all show a picture of Bush being ahead by about 2.

Regarding the election campaign, I don't think Bush 43 is making the same mistakes as Bush 41. Bush's 41's two biggest problems were perhaps going back on the no new taxes pledge, and thus being seen as indecisive, and being seen as out of touch. Bush 43 has made a concerted effort to not appear as out of touch, and is not seen as indecisive.

I think with Iraq going better, his numbers will pick up.

I think he's in good shape right now. Oil prices look to be heading down. Iraq seems to be going well, and the economy is booming.

Also a very important ditinction from 1992 is that Kerry is not Clinton. His campagin has been "I'm not Bush", and I don't think that will be enough if the economy is going well and Iraq isn't going awfully.

Again, I agree and can see where you are coming from in much of your response -

I do have one question though, is it not odd we (on the GWB side) want to have the luxury of saying all polls are biased in favor of Kerry to some degree (Like Rass 2pts, Zogby 4pts, etc) Are there not any polls that we can trust and just being up and up? Is this type of reasoning not setting ourselves up for a let down in not realizing that GWB might just not be doing that well -

Doesn't this continually allow for an ineffective campaign to continue - because we can always just rationalize that the polls are "slighted" for Kerry -

At the same time, I 100% agree polls from like CBS, NewsWeek, (the Network polls) are nothing but biased and used by the Nightly News programs to "push poll" Americans.

I believe this is GWB race to lose - he still controls his own fate - However, if his campaign doesn't change, doesn't become more effective and more on the offensive - he will slowly slip further behind and lose - The GWB must go on the offensive from here on out -

I think the most telling polls will come the third week in August - If GWB is trailing in the third week in August (3 weeks after the DNC convention)if he is trailing (by say 3 to 6pts) he will most likely lose - if GWB has a lead by the third week in August (again, 3 to 6pts) He will most likely win - if the race is even in the third week - then it will be a toss-up right to the end.

But come the third week in August, I hope to not still be hearing "we have a long time to go" type excuses -

There a number of good polls. Gallup is good, although they have shown a lot of volatility this time around. I have no idea why. For example, earlier on they showed Bush ahead by 6 I think when I think he was up about the same as now. Fox showed a dead heat at the same time. But I don't think Gallup is biased. The same with SUSA. They seem a bit volatile, but in my tracking of them I have shown them to be unbiased. Mason-Dixon may be the best of the state polls. Quinnipiac's polls also seem good. These last 3 I think are the best state polls.

Of the national polls, in addition to Gallup, Fox, as already mentioned, is good. Fox has shown less volatility this time around. They have shown a dead heat to Bush 1 or 2 points ahead for the last 3 months, which I think is probably accurate. Bush might have been up by a pinch moare at some point, but they've been very close, I think.

The battleground polls are good. The IBD polls are good. Harris. AP/Ipsos.

There's some others, but these are the main ones that come to mind.

Many of the state polls are done by Universities, and, outside of Quinnipiac, are all over the place. A lot of the newspaper polls are undependable. I think NBC may be OK. ABC's not too bad. CBS is a joke.

if they pushed Andy Card down one rung and Cheney became the President's Advisor "for health's sake", you could keep the Cheney supporters (like me,... I like his experience, want to keep him CLOSE to the President) and then add Rudy as VP.