As you, I often try and see through to the bigger picture - in terms of where we are at in the race and what things are still to develop with how an election unfolds -
With that said, where I think you and I differ, is I don't think GWB has a slight lead - I think it is Kerry at this time who does - He has held a 2pt lead in the RCP Average now for over 3 weeks (and while the Avg stays around 2pts for Kerry it tends to go up in terms of Kerry reaching closer to the high 40's then the low to mid 40's). Which is troubling IMO.
Also, what do you make of the new Gallup poll showing Kerry with a 6pt lead and getting 50% (Hitting the 50% mark is trouble for Bush - big time).
GWB has had a decent two week stint (considering the previous month before) and yet Kerry grows to a 6pt lead - Something is wrong in the GWB reelection camp - it is obvious.
Much of this year (not the politics of it, mind you) but how the race is unfolding and how the GWB reelection team is "talking" reminds me 100% of 1992 when I was a Young Republican at Western Michigan University - The same defeat seems to be coming - with the same excuses being made for months and months prior to the election -
Excuses on "why" and "how" and "when this happens" - all these type reasonings were given on why Bush Sr. was going to win (yet he didn't) - while I know things are different in this race (the politics, the non-third party, etc) What I am saying it just has the same "feel" - The same lack of a coherent reelection plan - the same lame excuses for "why" we aren't winning "yet" -
I also take a totally different point of view about the economy and your suggestion that Kerry has more access to get his message out with the Media - NO WAY - GWB is the President, he can force the media to cover him and thus get his message to the American public - the problem is, he seems to be inept at setting the facts straight on the economy - setting the premise - listing the statistics that show in area after area how our U.S. economy is booming -
Yet, when GWB talks, it is usually about how the economy "isn't strong enough" or "we had some hard times" - he seems to always be starting off from the "wrong" (DEM) premise - If you start with a false premise, you are going to lose that debate every time - yet this is what the GWB reelection team continues to do with the economy -
As for Cheney - come on, Cheney went into hiding (for lack of a better term) Giving a speech every two weeks - is not enough - he should have been going State to State setting the tone on the economy and the WOT -
I'm not sure I buy the whole, Iraq is causing everything to go bad (poll wise) - it just seems to "ring" of the same excuses before his Dad lost - AND the FACT is much has gone right in Iraq - Iraq is so much better off - the World is safer - yet when Iraq gets brought up, the GWB team talks for a "wrong" premise and go into how "we know things have been hard" "we know things haven't gone well" - BS! Talk about the successes - talk about how the world is safer - talk about how much progress we have made! Don't always just talk about how things have been bad -
There is plenty of good news when it comes to the WOT - the Bush team just needs to get this out there - be willing to be on the offensive - not always playing defense.
It's possible Kerry has a slight lead. There's no question the race is close. Here's why I think Bush is ahead.
1) The Rasmussen tracking poll shows a move in Bush's direction and shows Bush ahead by 1.4% or something like that over the last week. This is a poll that IMO understates Bush by about 2 points (because of no Nader and a loose Likely Voter screen.
2) More importantly, the ancillary data on Rasmussen is all very positive. More Americans think we are winning the war on terroism. Consumer confidence has gone up 10 out of the last 11 days. The investor index has gone up a lot too. There is evidence Americans are thinking more positively about the economy. This should translate into a rise for Bush
3) Rasmussen has come up with a ton of state polls, which IMO poll favoreably for Kerry by about 3 or 4 points. In spite of a barage of these recent polls, Bush is still ahead by 1 point on Dale's site.
4) If you look at the battleground states, you get a picture where the battle is more over Gore states than Bush states. E.g. OR, NM, IA, WI, MI, MN and PA (and maybe NJ) are all in play whereas only OH, NH, FL and MO on the Kerry side. I think Bush would take all the states on his side if the election were right now, with the possible exception of NH where Bush would take some of the Gore states.
5) The sites that wager on the election, tradesports and the Iowa exchange site, have Bush ahead, and making a slight move recently.
Regarding the recent Gallup poll, I think the horse race result is an outlier, especially the likely voter result. The following things are strange in the Gallup poll:
1) The job approval was 49, which does not correspond to Bush being behind at all, let alone by 6
2) The poll shows Bush ahead by only 4 in the states he took in 2000. I don't think that's possible. Many of the states he won in 2000 were by huge amounts, including Texas, the most populous of the Bush 2000 states. I think this is understating his support in these states by a lot.
3) Bush's job approval is up by 3 from last time, yet the horse race number is down
4) The registered voter result is more favorable than the likely voter result
5) It's out of line with the other recent polls. If you look at Zogby, Rasmussen and IBD, and take into account their biases (Zogby about 4, Rasmussen 2), they all show a picture of Bush being ahead by about 2.
Regarding the election campaign, I don't think Bush 43 is making the same mistakes as Bush 41. Bush's 41's two biggest problems were perhaps going back on the no new taxes pledge, and thus being seen as indecisive, and being seen as out of touch. Bush 43 has made a concerted effort to not appear as out of touch, and is not seen as indecisive.
I think with Iraq going better, his numbers will pick up.
I think he's in good shape right now. Oil prices look to be heading down. Iraq seems to be going well, and the economy is booming.
Also a very important ditinction from 1992 is that Kerry is not Clinton. His campagin has been "I'm not Bush", and I don't think that will be enough if the economy is going well and Iraq isn't going awfully.