Posted on 06/07/2004 2:47:30 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
I was going to say Truman (myself) but that was really a totally other era in politics - TV / Media wise -
As for Ford, he lost. I am not looking for a late surge by GWB that comes out on the losing end - The fact is, incumbents that win, typically start to have a lead rather early in the election year and then add to it as the election grows closer -
I know this is a different election year - being after Sept 11th - but the fact still remains, in "historical" terms, GWB is not sitting that well right now for an incumbent -
And, he has run a pretty lousy campaign thus far - Bad news or whatnot - the fact is you have to get out there and lead - the only reason there has been so much "bad" news - is because that is how the media and DNC are "spinning" the news - with NO response back from the GWB team -
The fact is there is TONS of positive, good news - yet the GWB fails to engage - fails to get on the offensive, they stay on the defensive (which means going along with the Bad news stories).
There is much good going on in the WOT - there is much good going on within the USA - it is the BUSH team that sits silent - my God, we know the media and Dem's aren't going to get these type messages out there - (so we have to stop blaming them) - it is the GWB reelection team that refuses to engage - refuses to set the premise on issue after issue -
Why are Wisconsin and Iowa so left?
Not speaking for Iowa, the peoples republic of Madison is very lefty and the state has been left leaning at the top for some time. We have the Dairy Queen, Herb Kohl, the nation's only homosexual Senator (undeclared, but still a homosexual), Russ Feingold, the only Senator to vote against the Patriot Act and Jim Doyle, an extreme lefty governor. Parts of Wisconsin are tradtionally left....southwestern , Kenosha, Milwaukee and Madison. The Fox valley (Green Bay, Appleton, Oshkosh and parts of Fond du Lac and suburban Milwaukee are to the right, as well as many parts of the central state.
What southern state(s) do you see switching to JFK if GWB had Rudy as a running mate?
Hillary will NEVER allow Kerry to win - NEVER!!
I agree totally. Make people see the obvious. It should be an easy point to make -- only a few simple-to-grasp numbers to dangle repeatedly in front of people's faces.
But I'm optimistic on this. If present trends continue with economy/jobs, people are going to get the message.
You asked about a surge. You didn't specify surge + win.
The fact that Ford surged is promising for Bush. It shows it can happen. Ford was running worse than Bush by quite a bit, and yet came within an eyelash of winning. If the election had been another week later, he probably would have won. If I remember right, you were looking for something hopeful, so here it is!
Also I think you are entirely too negative regarding Bush's handling of the campaign. I think they've been running a fine campaign. Perhaps that would make a good poll question.
And what 3% chance does Kerry have of taking Utah?
I think the Bush nadir is now. It is going to be up and up from this point.
Something that's interesting is to compare these results to Dale's results. The tradesports.com site comforms much more to conventional wisdom. None of their states look "wierd". Several of Dales' results look "funny" or have looked funny.
In particular, Virginia is a virtual toss-up in Dales, but very solid for Bush on tradesports. Just a little while ago, Ohio was in the leaning Kerry category (which would correspond to about 0.30 on tradesports) while tradesports has not shown Ohio in the Kerry category at any point (although it did get breathtakingly close). New Jersey was in Bush's camp for awhile, although on tradesports it's never gotten as high as 0.20 I don't think.
Of the close states, both sites view NM, PA and NM the same. tradesports has Florida slightly Bush vs. a toss-up on Dales, Oregon as slightly Kerry vs. a toss-up, and Iowa about the same.
I think tradesports is more of a lagging indicator site and Dales more leading. Also Dales is much, much more volatile.
Kenosha is an old labor town, so are parts of Janesville and Beloit (both big union towns, with a GM plant and a Fairbanks Morse plant) to the west. Also lotsa folks over in LaCrosse vote democrat.
But the Prez is loyal. He'll never dump Cheney. Cheney, who is a very decent man, will be on the ticket unless he has another heart attack before the GOP convention.
I question the numbers on this 2004 Projection Chart with regard to Ohio, New Mexico and West Virginia. While I believe the President will win them; they will be squeakers.
I agree, in fact I think his nadir has passed. The IBD poll out tonight shows some improvement, and a small Bush lead in both the head-to-head and three-way race.
I checked Tradesports and see that Bush still is at a 57% chance to win, which is about where he's been for a couple of weeks. That hasn't changed much.
I'm by no means an expert but my guess would be any combination of Virginia, Arkansas and North Carolina.
In the context of tradesports.com, these states are squeakers. Remember the numbers are not polls numbers and have nothing to do with poll numbers, but are simply the likelihood the traders think a given result will happen. So anything around 60% represents 3 to 2 odds, which is a squeaker.
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