I was going to say Truman (myself) but that was really a totally other era in politics - TV / Media wise -
As for Ford, he lost. I am not looking for a late surge by GWB that comes out on the losing end - The fact is, incumbents that win, typically start to have a lead rather early in the election year and then add to it as the election grows closer -
I know this is a different election year - being after Sept 11th - but the fact still remains, in "historical" terms, GWB is not sitting that well right now for an incumbent -
And, he has run a pretty lousy campaign thus far - Bad news or whatnot - the fact is you have to get out there and lead - the only reason there has been so much "bad" news - is because that is how the media and DNC are "spinning" the news - with NO response back from the GWB team -
The fact is there is TONS of positive, good news - yet the GWB fails to engage - fails to get on the offensive, they stay on the defensive (which means going along with the Bad news stories).
There is much good going on in the WOT - there is much good going on within the USA - it is the BUSH team that sits silent - my God, we know the media and Dem's aren't going to get these type messages out there - (so we have to stop blaming them) - it is the GWB reelection team that refuses to engage - refuses to set the premise on issue after issue -
You asked about a surge. You didn't specify surge + win.
The fact that Ford surged is promising for Bush. It shows it can happen. Ford was running worse than Bush by quite a bit, and yet came within an eyelash of winning. If the election had been another week later, he probably would have won. If I remember right, you were looking for something hopeful, so here it is!
Also I think you are entirely too negative regarding Bush's handling of the campaign. I think they've been running a fine campaign. Perhaps that would make a good poll question.