I do have one question though, is it not odd we (on the GWB side) want to have the luxury of saying all polls are biased in favor of Kerry to some degree (Like Rass 2pts, Zogby 4pts, etc) Are there not any polls that we can trust and just being up and up? Is this type of reasoning not setting ourselves up for a let down in not realizing that GWB might just not be doing that well -
Doesn't this continually allow for an ineffective campaign to continue - because we can always just rationalize that the polls are "slighted" for Kerry -
At the same time, I 100% agree polls from like CBS, NewsWeek, (the Network polls) are nothing but biased and used by the Nightly News programs to "push poll" Americans.
I believe this is GWB race to lose - he still controls his own fate - However, if his campaign doesn't change, doesn't become more effective and more on the offensive - he will slowly slip further behind and lose - The GWB must go on the offensive from here on out -
I think the most telling polls will come the third week in August - If GWB is trailing in the third week in August (3 weeks after the DNC convention)if he is trailing (by say 3 to 6pts) he will most likely lose - if GWB has a lead by the third week in August (again, 3 to 6pts) He will most likely win - if the race is even in the third week - then it will be a toss-up right to the end.
But come the third week in August, I hope to not still be hearing "we have a long time to go" type excuses -
There a number of good polls. Gallup is good, although they have shown a lot of volatility this time around. I have no idea why. For example, earlier on they showed Bush ahead by 6 I think when I think he was up about the same as now. Fox showed a dead heat at the same time. But I don't think Gallup is biased. The same with SUSA. They seem a bit volatile, but in my tracking of them I have shown them to be unbiased. Mason-Dixon may be the best of the state polls. Quinnipiac's polls also seem good. These last 3 I think are the best state polls.
Of the national polls, in addition to Gallup, Fox, as already mentioned, is good. Fox has shown less volatility this time around. They have shown a dead heat to Bush 1 or 2 points ahead for the last 3 months, which I think is probably accurate. Bush might have been up by a pinch moare at some point, but they've been very close, I think.
The battleground polls are good. The IBD polls are good. Harris. AP/Ipsos.
There's some others, but these are the main ones that come to mind.
Many of the state polls are done by Universities, and, outside of Quinnipiac, are all over the place. A lot of the newspaper polls are undependable. I think NBC may be OK. ABC's not too bad. CBS is a joke.