Actually, Dubya has a good chance of picking off OR, PA, WI and IA from the Kerry column. All in all not a bad map given the terrible news the last two months. As Iraq improves and the feeling of confidence in the economy percolates throught the summer, things will improve on this map.
Just for reference, can we name one incumbent that has surged late in an election? This would be to help ease my mind - (and I mean incumbent, not a VP running for Prez).
This race is much closer then any of us would like - The other fact being, we lost the premise on the economy (the ONE issue that could beat GWB) and we are paying for it now.
The silly ads the GWB team has aired about the Patriot Act are useless and a waste of money - no one (NO ONE) will be voting the Patriot Act over the economy this Nov!
Ads should have been running long ago stating the facts about our economy - stating all the good the GWB economic policies have done - wasting millions on the Patriot Act ads and still losing in National Polls is becoming trouble-some. IMO.
We only have 5 months left - Incumbents typically start pulling ahead by now (or long before). This worries me some.
IA and OR I both think are "strong" Kerry States (in the end). But, PA,WI, MN and NM are all possible pick-up States for GWB - if his campaign stops playing defense.