Poll: Support for Bush, Iraq war dropping (Kerry 49% W 44% Nader 6%-W approval @ 46%)

cnn.com ^ | 05/14/04 | cnn.

[KQQL]

That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.

If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.

Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.

The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday.

The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points

[Rokke]

DrDeb, awesome post. Thanks for shifting the light back on reality.

[FA14]

Exactly....the GOP Hill & Senate members need to get out there an start showing 100% support for President BUSH. The GOP senate is a joke. The only reason (ONLY REASON) they have a majority is because of GWB! If it was not for him campaigning in 2002....they would have never won those close races on their own. The Senate is a joke.

[jwalsh07]

"On the generic ballot for congressional races, Democrats have a 13 point lead among likely voters."

You believe this bs?

[FA14]

I appreciated DrDeb's post as well...However, the facts remain, Incumbents that have won reelection have done so with a much different pattern of polling that currently GWB is.

The public paying attention or not....History is a window to the future in most cases (not all...I know)...and the fact remains...we can talk ourselves in circles about why bad polling numbers don't really matter...and no one is paying attention...blah, blah, blah...

But also remember...nothing is more complex then avoiding the obvious.....And the obvious situation is the GWB camp is running a terrible reelection campaign.

[nailspitter]

My personal opinion is that without Iraq, Bush's approval rating would be well over 50% and he'd probably be ahead by 10 points.

If Iraq stabalizes, even a little, and it may be doing that right now (lower casualties, Fallujah quiet, al-Sadr in a box) then Bush should have no problem in November.

[jps098]

I noticed he (KQQL) was a real pessimist during the 2002 Senate races, and at one time openly worried that the Dems were going to gain 5 seats.

[M. Dodge Thomas]

I'd have to say it appears to me that though the result in November is very much an open question, the administration is certainly in much more difficulty position than even a few months back. For example the presidents overall approval rating is now even or slightly negative, and on some issues (such as the War) it's clearly negative and becoming more so - a significant factor as negative approval ratings for an incumbent (irrespective of party) drive voters into the "undecided" camp, and such voters tend to break strongly for challengers once they get into the voting booth.

I'd also have to agree with Albion Girl that events in Iraq are driving Administration War policy more than the other way around – that as a high ranking officer recently noted there is no way we can lose this war militarily, but there is also no way we can win it militarily, either.

So where does it go from here?

I simply don't know.

It appears highly unlikely to me that this President will attempt any sort of political accommodation with critics of the current strategy, either within the Republican Party or outside it - that he will back his present foreign policy and civilian military advisors and their program pretty much irrespective of the course of events in Iraq.

In terms of Washington politics this is in some ways a pretty strong position, and I expect that Congress will continue to support his efforts. (To appreciate the dilemma confronting congressional skeptics of the war consider Kerry's position - he's mouse-trapped. He can't be looking forward to having to support additional appropriations for the War effort - which will cost him votes on the anti-war left – but voting this way but is a requirement if he is to remain a viable candidate to Democratic and independent voters to their right).

OTOH, saving some sort of dramatic reversal of fortune (for example, the emergence of a really popular coalition government able to quell the worst of civil unrest after June 30) IMO it seems likely that approval of the current policy (as opposed to more general support of a strong US and US troops) will eventually be reduced to the 40% (my guess) or so who will support the president irrespective of events in Iraq, and Republicans will be faced with high negatives on the issue, with all the attendant problems noted above.

[HostileTerritory]

Does us no good if people start to believe he's a strong leader who's taking us into a ditch.

[HostileTerritory]

The steroids in sports thing kind of made me cringe.

[COEXERJ145]

I don't worry about polls. I used to do them for a living so I know how much BS they can be. (The poll I worked on about the 1996 Pres. campaign had Clinton winning with 60% of the popular vote. Of course that didn't happen.) I enjoy pointing out problems in the poll rather than taking them @ face value.

Too many people here believe every poll that is bad for Bush but any poll that is a positive for Bush is dismissed as unreliable.

[HostileTerritory]

Second, never forget that Bush owns the 'bully-pulpit' and can make or change the agenda, and the nation's focus anytime he wishes.

You must be joking. Bush has been trying all damn week to talk about jobs and the growing economy and all the press wants to talk about is Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. I hear it on the radio; he's always being quoted from the floor of a factory in Ohio or W. Virginia, talking about tax cuts or education, and that's good for thirty seconds. Then you get 20 minutes of prisoner abuse and Congressional hearings and what's Powell saying bad about Rumsfeld.

[Barlowmaker]

I agree. I think I read that in the 1980 Reagan-Carter matchup, there were 23 opinion polls taken - total.

The news outlets are now engaging in polls to MAKE news, so they are unreliable on their face.

[ride the whirlwind]

I posted to this thread for the same reason you did. No poll is worth "obsessing" over as I think I conveyed in my previous post.

[Redcoat LI]

I Was Thinking All The Publicity On Monday On How Alien A Place Massachusetts Is To(Most Of) The Rest Of The Country.

May Produce A Small Wrinkle In These Polls.

[Rokke]

"Incumbents that have won reelection have done so with a much different pattern of polling that currently GWB is."

Really? I would say this time period in our country falls outside any normal pattern of just about anything. It's not surprising the polling looks different. As far as the GWB reelection committee is concerned, I've watched them work through too many elections and seen too many doom and gloom Freepers declaring they suck moments before they successfully demonstrate that previous "patterns" don't mean much when the proven GWB election team is in charge.

[HostileTerritory]

I just saw your homepage--I take it you won't be going to the celebration at City Hall at midnight Sunday?

[COEXERJ145]

The problem with these almost daily polls is they sample so few people that there is no way to gage the nation's real opinion from 500-1000 "adults". Even with the state polls of 500-1000 people, there is no guarantee that the poll is accurate.

A lot of these polling organizations have a list of people they call on a regular basis so they can get a poll out whenever it is needed. Of course it is easy to manipulate such a list to get the desired result.

[FA14]

While I do give credence to the notion that during this time period in history....many norms might not figure into the election like normal (and I hope this bears true with regard to approval rating).

However, besides 2002 (in which I thought the GOP would win every race we did...expect I picked Thune as well)....What track record does the GWB camp have on a national level? 2000 was much closer then many of us were predicting (Hell, Rush was calling it a blow-out the day before the election).

The fact does remain. Nothing is more complex then avoiding the obvious....and what is obvious is the GWB camp has run a Lazy campaign....and the RNC got taken to the cleaners by not having our own 527's up and running.....We were given the shaft for 4 months now...while Lib 527's have been running ad's. (I travel to MI often...and Moveon.org has been killing GWB up there...which also reaches most of Northern Ohio).

[boxsmith13]

the polls havent changedfor the better after 2 months. I think most of us here would ahve expected that bu now Bush would be well ahead of Kerry. I think once people begin disapproving of the President's perfomance it is very difficult to turn them back on once turned off.

it took Reagan a full year of strong economicgrowht before he got his approval rating back above 50% and his approval never fell much below 45% even in the dark days of 11% unemployment in Dec 1982. So one year to move 5 points upward andthatwas the Gipper.

All the trends say now Bush will lose and lose probably by no less than 5 points with Kerry approaching 320 EVs.


Bush is polling worse than any incumbent presdient right now versus his challenger. Reagan never lead Carter by 5 points 5 months from the election, ditto Clinton.

Bush has a higher approval rating than Bush 41 or Carter, but only by 5-6 points.


Will there for the first time since 1980, be coat-tails that sweep the GOP out of Congress? I think that people are under-estimating the hatered that exists for Bush. IT can sweep Kerry in, but it cant sustain him as President

[Redcoat LI]

Yeah,I'll Meet You There,I'll Be the One Skipping Down Mass.Ave In A Pink Tutu,Waiving A Fairy Wand.

Seriously,I've been Putting Off Paying Parking Tickets,and I absolutely Have To Have Them Payed By Tuesday.

Monday Should Be Fun.

With My Luck,Fox News Will Show Up For A Remote When I'm Walking Out.