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I'd have to say it appears to me that though the result in November is very much an open question, the administration is certainly in much more difficulty position than even a few months back. For example the presidents overall approval rating is now even or slightly negative, and on some issues (such as the War) it's clearly negative and becoming more so - a significant factor as negative approval ratings for an incumbent (irrespective of party) drive voters into the "undecided" camp, and such voters tend to break strongly for challengers once they get into the voting booth.

I'd also have to agree with Albion Girl that events in Iraq are driving Administration War policy more than the other way around – that as a high ranking officer recently noted there is no way we can lose this war militarily, but there is also no way we can win it militarily, either.

So where does it go from here?

I simply don't know.

It appears highly unlikely to me that this President will attempt any sort of political accommodation with critics of the current strategy, either within the Republican Party or outside it - that he will back his present foreign policy and civilian military advisors and their program pretty much irrespective of the course of events in Iraq.

In terms of Washington politics this is in some ways a pretty strong position, and I expect that Congress will continue to support his efforts. (To appreciate the dilemma confronting congressional skeptics of the war consider Kerry's position - he's mouse-trapped. He can't be looking forward to having to support additional appropriations for the War effort - which will cost him votes on the anti-war left – but voting this way but is a requirement if he is to remain a viable candidate to Democratic and independent voters to their right).

OTOH, saving some sort of dramatic reversal of fortune (for example, the emergence of a really popular coalition government able to quell the worst of civil unrest after June 30) IMO it seems likely that approval of the current policy (as opposed to more general support of a strong US and US troops) will eventually be reduced to the 40% (my guess) or so who will support the president irrespective of events in Iraq, and Republicans will be faced with high negatives on the issue, with all the attendant problems noted above.

Nice profile page, by the way.

OTOH, saving some sort of dramatic reversal of fortune (for example, the emergence of a really popular coalition government able to quell the worst of civil unrest after June 30) IMO it seems likely that approval of the current policy (as opposed to more general support of a strong US and US troops) will eventually be reduced to the 40% (my guess) or so who will support the president irrespective of events in Iraq, and Republicans will be faced with high negatives on the issue, with all the attendant problems noted above.

Most important aspects, and nearly all that needs to be covered is done so in your last paragraph. Excellent analysis, and just like the song Everybody Wants to Rule the World, I wish I'd written it.

Just want to say one last thing, and that is that the chances of that popular coalition government you speak of seem very, very slim. Now the administration seems like they want to rush the results and fast-forward democracy to a region that in all likelihood requires more time, and it's probably the worst thing they could do. This can't be won soley by military means, it needs finesse, something that the administration doesn't seem to have a hankering for. I had immense confidence in the competence of President Bush and his team, and that confidence is starting to rapidly erode.