[nailspitter]

My personal opinion is that without Iraq, Bush's approval rating would be well over 50% and he'd probably be ahead by 10 points.

If Iraq stabalizes, even a little, and it may be doing that right now (lower casualties, Fallujah quiet, al-Sadr in a box) then Bush should have no problem in November.

[Dante3]

Many independents and conservatives are disappointed in Bush and might not bother to vote because of the WMD, Iraq war, the many Americans killed in overseas, failure to protect our borders, amnesty for illegal aliens, and not enough support for his judicial nominees and the marriage amendment.

If he would tackle most of those issues -- and there is no reason why that can't be done -- he will win easily.