the polls havent changedfor the better after 2 months. I think most of us here would ahve expected that bu now Bush would be well ahead of Kerry. I think once people begin disapproving of the President's perfomance it is very difficult to turn them back on once turned off.
it took Reagan a full year of strong economicgrowht before he got his approval rating back above 50% and his approval never fell much below 45% even in the dark days of 11% unemployment in Dec 1982. So one year to move 5 points upward andthatwas the Gipper.
All the trends say now Bush will lose and lose probably by no less than 5 points with Kerry approaching 320 EVs.
Bush is polling worse than any incumbent presdient right now versus his challenger. Reagan never lead Carter by 5 points 5 months from the election, ditto Clinton.
Bush has a higher approval rating than Bush 41 or Carter, but only by 5-6 points.
Will there for the first time since 1980, be coat-tails that sweep the GOP out of Congress? I think that people are under-estimating the hatered that exists for Bush. IT can sweep Kerry in, but it cant sustain him as President
This is GWB election to lose (that is a fact). However, with how he is running this campaign....he just might lose.
I will stand by my assertion...that if GWB is tied or trailing by Sept. 21st...he will lose......and if Gas prices (national avg.) is not down to under $1.50 by Sept 21st...he will also lose. (not because of high prices at the pump alone....but because of the impact the rising energy costs will have on business....and thus that effect)