Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 5/6/04 | Rasmussen

[The_Victor]

Thursday May 06, 2004--The

latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows another tie with Senator John F. Kerry and  President George W. Bush each earning 45% of the vote.

 

The return to a tie comes from dropping Sunday night's sample, which was particularly strong for Senator Kerry. As a result, it appears that Kerry's "lead" in recent days was merely statistical noise.

 

Both candidates have remained within three percentage points of 45% on every single one of the 64 nights since Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination. Neither candidate has held a three-point advantage for four consecutive days during that time.

 

Supplemental data is available for RR Premium Members. Learn more about Premium Membership

 

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters now give President Bush good or excellent marks for handling the economy.

Forty-one (41%) say the same for his handling of the situation in Iraq.

 

Perceptions of the President's economic performance are likely to shift along with perceptions of the economy. The Hudson Employment Index, released yesterday, suggests that more employers are in a hiring mood than they were earlier in the year. If this is reflected in Friday's government report on unemployment, it could have a significant impact on the nation's economic confidence.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

[The_Victor]

Bad data from Sunday has worked it's way out of the 3 day average.

[Bonaventure]

Good news. I thought Kerry would increase his lead today, because it looked to me as if Tuesday night's sample was great for Kerry. We must have the wrong idea about Rasmussen's daily sample.

[COEXERJ145]

Just like all the naysayers were told yesterday. Rasmussen would swing back the other direction within a few days, he always does.

[Semper Paratus]

No Nader data?

[The_Victor]

Yuck, that didn't come out looking right. Try again

Updated Daily

by Noon Eastern

Kerry 45% Bush 45%

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot
Bush	45%
Kerry	45%
Other	4%
Not Sure	6%
RasmussenReports.com

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Rasmussen Reports Home

 

Thursday May 06, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows another tie with Senator John F. Kerry and  President George W. Bush each earning 45% of the vote.

 

The return to a tie comes from dropping Sunday night's sample, which was particularly strong for Senator Kerry. As a result, it appears that Kerry's "lead" in recent days was merely statistical noise.

 

Both candidates have remained within three percentage points of 45% on every single one of the 64 nights since Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination. Neither candidate has held a three-point advantage for four consecutive days during that time.

 

Supplemental data is available for RR Premium Members. Learn more about Premium Membership

 

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters now give President Bush good or excellent marks for handling the economy.

Forty-one (41%) say the same for his handling of the situation in Iraq.

 

Perceptions of the President's economic performance are likely to shift along with perceptions of the economy. The Hudson Employment Index, released yesterday, suggests that more employers are in a hiring mood than they were earlier in the year. If this is reflected in Friday's government report on unemployment, it could have a significant impact on the nation's economic confidence.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

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The President's Job Approval rating is now at 52%. That's just about where it's been for most of the past month.

[Preachin']

The return to a tie comes from dropping Sunday night's sample, which was particularly strong for Senator Kerry. As a result, it appears that Kerry's "lead" in recent days was merely statistical noise.

Just like Rasmussen.

Whats the point of tracking this:

The "BUSH KERRY January 26-Today" chart on the Rasmussen website looks like a game of pong. It offers no real value. It's almost easy to know when it'll spike for one particular candidate.

[epluribus_2]

I guess people out there are smart enough to realize that Bush did not personally order the humiliation of the iraqi terrorists/POWs. Take that scum-media - OOF! POW! PAFF!

[TomGuy]

All the lib drib against GWB doesn't seem to be sticking.

On the other hand, all the allegations, charges, etc., against Kerry seems to be having little impact either.

[marty60]

Just once I would like to see a question about peoples knowledge of Kerry's Admission to War Crimes. ie: Are you aware that John Kerry admitted before Congress in 1971 that he committed WAR Crimes? Knowing this , will you vote for Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election? I know it's a push poll, but someone has to tell the truth.

[KellyAdmirer]

Rasmussen should give it up. His automated telephone methodology just doesn't work. There is too much "statistical noise," as he puts it. I feel comfortable saying this on a day that President Bush does well, his results are pretty useless except to be able to say, "a lot of people support each candidate." And that's really not good enough, at least for me.

[gswilder]

I think the recent 2 months of bad news HAS hurt Bush. If not, I believe he would be up 7-10 points in all the polls. In the end, Bush will win. We ARE at war. War is not a "prefect" activity. People understand that this is a different world post 9-11. Even though Bush has issues, when they go into the voting booth, I bet they will not want to change leaders at a time like this. What message would that send to the terrorists if Bush were defeated? We would be attacked on a 9-11 scale every month.

[TomEwall]

I pretty much agree with what you're saying. I think Bush made a strong move in March and April, and things have slid back a bit in May. I think you're right that without the bad news, Bush would be well ahead.

Maybe this coming week will be a good week, starting with a strong jobs report. Bush hasn't had a good week for a long time, but he's still hanging in there!

[TomEwall]

NYCRepublican was showing yesterday's sample was strong for Kerry too. That means that today's sample would have had to have been strong for Bush.

The job approval number was back up to 52%. Even while Kerry was showing to be up, the job approval number was holding steady.

More troubling than the Rasmussen poll, which goes everywhere, is the Gallop poll that shows the race tied. However, the good news is this appears to be based on current events, which go up and down (although lately there's been an awful lot of down and not much up). Maybe they could lose Saddam and refind him.

[kesg]

More troubling than the Rasmussen poll, which goes everywhere, is the Gallop poll that shows the race tied.

Don't worry too much. The Gallup poll was done from Monday to Wednesday (while the Iraqi prisoner abuse story was dominating the news) and according to the USA Today website was of 1,000 adults, not likely voters or even registered voters. In other words, the poll was cooked and even then Bush came out tied.

[TomEwall]

Really? This wasn't a likely voter poll? Hmm. How about the earlier one a couple of weeks ago? If one isn't and one is, then we have apples and oranges.

[TomEwall]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm shows the poll as a likely voter poll, so I'm back to being troubled.

[kesg]

I got confused by the USA Today article describing the poll. I now think you are right -- this poll reflects likely voters, not merely adults. Sorry about that. :)

Still, to be tied in polling taken this week -- a week filled with nothing but unusually bad news for President Bush -- isn't too bad. Bush has a small lead in other major polls, including the NBC/WSJ poll that came out yesterday and which reflected weekend polling.

More fundamentally, it is way too early to get concerned about polls. The serious people have already decided on a candidate, and the less serious people really aren't yet paying close attention. When they do -- which won't be until several months from now -- barring really bad economic news or news from Iraq or elsewhere, they will almost pick the guy (and the guy's wife -- trust me on this) they personally like more. You can take it from there.

[TomEwall]

I know this, but would still like to see Bush build a lead. I'd like him to be tied when the Democtratic convention ends.

[Revolutionary]

Rasmussen is over sampling Democrats / Liberals. The generic Congress poll gives a good adjustment tool. A generic Congress poll at this point in time should have the Democrats up by about 2 percent. When the difference is larger, add the amount of difference over 2% to Bush's poll number. That would make it Bush 50% to Fairy 45% (misspelling intended).

The generic poll won't change much because of the concentration of effort in the battleground states.

The morning after comments will be about the big difference that Bush's ground game made. I think GWB will pull close to 5% more on election day compared to the last minute polling data. This will also deliver a bonus down the ticket. There will be an increase in the state legislatures and key state offices that we pick up. That is where the long term difference will occur.

[TomEwall]

Nice post. You're thinking is very close to mine. I've had Bush at about +4 and wrote a vanity about why the national polls (which are showing about +4) are not in agreement with the state polls.

I hadn't thought of the using the Congress poll to adjust. That's a good idea. I was using the job approval number similarly. I think a job approval number of 52 corresponds to Bush ahead by about 4 (with Nader in the mix).