Posted on 04/26/2004 9:33:05 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 98.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 75.0 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 67.0 | 6 | 0 |
California | 12.5 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 82.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 12.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 20.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 60.0 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 92.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 8.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 13.0 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 88.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 40.0 | 0 | 7 |
Kansas | 93.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 88.0 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 86.0 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 15.0 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 13.0 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 37.0 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 36.0 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 98.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 61.0 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 92.0 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 70.0 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 65.0 | 4 | 0 |
New Jersey | 14.0 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 57.0 | 5 | 0 |
New York | 10.0 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 82.0 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 56.0 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 95.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 38.0 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 56.0 | 21 | 0 |
Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 89.0 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 83.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 97.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 88.0 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 24.0 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 55.0 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 50.0 | 10 | 0 |
Wyoming | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 314 | 224 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 314 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 224 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 284.48 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
The bid price is 50.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 52.5.
Thus, the tie goes to President Bush.
After the Great Fiasco of 2000, that makes me extremely nervous.
Kerry can be replaced AFTER the convention too. Remember, rules do not apply to democrats.
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