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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, April 26, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 04/26/2004 9:33:05 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 98.0 9 0
Alaska 95.0 3 0
Arizona 75.0 10 0
Arkansas 67.0 6 0
California 12.5 0 55
Colorado 82.0 9 0
Connecticut 12.0 0 7
Delaware 20.0 0 3
District of Columbia 0.5 0 3
Florida 60.0 27 0
Georgia 92.0 15 0
Hawaii 8.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 13.0 0 21
Indiana 88.0 11 0
Iowa 40.0 0 7
Kansas 93.0 6 0
Kentucky 88.0 8 0
Louisiana 86.0 9 0
Maine 15.0 0 4
Maryland 13.0 0 10
Massachusetts 4.0 0 12
Michigan 37.0 0 17
Minnesota 36.0 0 10
Mississippi 98.0 6 0
Missouri 61.0 11 0
Montana 92.0 3 0
Nebraska 96.0 5 0
Nevada 70.0 5 0
New Hampshire 65.0 4 0
New Jersey 14.0 0 15
New Mexico 57.0 5 0
New York 10.0 0 31
North Carolina 82.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 56.0 20 0
Oklahoma 95.0 7 0
Oregon 38.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 56.0 21 0
Rhode Island 4.0 0 4
South Carolina 89.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 83.0 11 0
Texas 97.0 34 0
Utah 96.0 5 0
Vermont 5.0 0 3
Virginia 88.0 13 0
Washington 24.0 0 11
West Virginia 55.0 5 0
Wisconsin 50.0 10 0
Wyoming 96.0 3 0
Totals   314 224


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 314 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 224 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 284.48 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 04/26/2004 9:33:10 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 04/26/2004 9:33:30 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Wisconsin is at 50.0% today.

The bid price is 50.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 52.5.

Thus, the tie goes to President Bush.

3 posted on 04/26/2004 9:33:54 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

4 posted on 04/26/2004 9:34:45 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Wisconsin is irrelevant. What these polls keep telling us is that Kerry can not possibly get 270 electoral votes unless he wins Florida.
5 posted on 04/26/2004 9:40:15 AM PDT by presidio9 (Rangers Lead The Way!)
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To: Momaw Nadon
This is before Charlie Gibson and GMA. Kerry is imploding. I love it when a plan comes together.
6 posted on 04/26/2004 9:41:06 AM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
We gained 10! Go Bush!!!!
7 posted on 04/26/2004 9:48:02 AM PDT by Integrityrocks
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To: presidio9
or he grabs PA and OH probably more realistic than him grabbing FL
8 posted on 04/26/2004 9:52:27 AM PDT by DM1
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To: Momaw Nadon
Let's see ... I count 17 states for Kerry, plus D.C.
That leaves 33 for Bush.
Looks good to me.
9 posted on 04/26/2004 9:55:30 AM PDT by shekkian
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To: presidio9
You're right. It seems that this election will come down to three states: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Whichever candidate takes two out of three will probably win.
10 posted on 04/26/2004 9:57:12 AM PDT by p. henry
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To: p. henry
California is a real piece of work hey p. henry. Maybe Arnie will help out here.
11 posted on 04/26/2004 10:00:40 AM PDT by Iberian
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To: p. henry
Do the math. If Bush wins Florida, it makes no difference if Kerry takes Pennsylvania AND Ohio. If all other states stay in line, Bush still wins 273 to 265.
12 posted on 04/26/2004 10:01:52 AM PDT by presidio9 (Rangers Lead The Way!)
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To: Momaw Nadon
index !
13 posted on 04/26/2004 10:02:41 AM PDT by smonk
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To: LS
Kerry's implosion is very bad news. He can still be replaced before the convention.
14 posted on 04/26/2004 10:14:17 AM PDT by Arkie2
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To: presidio9
What these polls keep telling us is that Kerry can not possibly get 270 electoral votes unless he wins Florida.

After the Great Fiasco of 2000, that makes me extremely nervous.

15 posted on 04/26/2004 10:17:57 AM PDT by Allegra (Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, MUSHROOM!)
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To: Arkie2
Kerry's implosion is very bad news. He can still be replaced before the convention.

Kerry can be replaced AFTER the convention too. Remember, rules do not apply to democrats.

16 posted on 04/26/2004 10:18:11 AM PDT by PetroniDE (Kitty Is My Master - I Do What She Says)
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To: Momaw Nadon
here's the trend shown graphically... 2004.01.26


2004.02.02


2004.02.09


2004.02.16


2004.02.23


2004.03.01


2004.03.08


2004.03.15


2004.03.22


2004.03.29


2004.04.05


2004.04.12


2004.04.19


2004.04.26


17 posted on 04/26/2004 10:38:22 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: DM1
Bush has to win Ohio. No republican has ever won the election without Ohio I believe.
18 posted on 04/26/2004 10:44:07 AM PDT by RetiredArmy (We'll put a boot in your ass, it's the American Way! Toby Keith)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Don't you have the colors backwards?

I know that RED should go with commies, but I think precident
has already been forged in stone.

Dubya won the "red states" in the last election.

Red=Right=Rational=Reliable=Republican
bLue(aka Lavender)=Leftist=Loony=Liberal=Lying=>democRAT
19 posted on 04/26/2004 10:50:55 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: FL_engineer
IMHO RED should be for commies and PINKOS.

President Bush is a TRUE BLUE American.
20 posted on 04/26/2004 10:58:53 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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