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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, April 12, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 04/12/2004 3:11:04 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 94.0 9 0
Alaska 95.0 3 0
Arizona 75.0 10 0
Arkansas 67.0 6 0
California 15.0 0 55
Colorado 81.0 9 0
Connecticut 14.0 0 7
Delaware 22.0 0 3
District of Columbia 1.0 0 3
Florida 61.0 27 0
Georgia 91.0 15 0
Hawaii 8.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 17.0 0 21
Indiana 88.0 11 0
Iowa 42.0 0 7
Kansas 93.0 6 0
Kentucky 87.0 8 0
Louisiana 83.5 9 0
Maine 19.0 0 4
Maryland 18.0 0 10
Massachusetts 4.0 0 12
Michigan 43.0 0 17
Minnesota 41.0 0 10
Mississippi 93.0 6 0
Missouri 65.0 11 0
Montana 92.0 3 0
Nebraska 96.0 5 0
Nevada 70.0 5 0
New Hampshire 65.0 4 0
New Jersey 18.0 0 15
New Mexico 57.0 5 0
New York 12.0 0 31
North Carolina 84.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 60.0 20 0
Oklahoma 95.0 7 0
Oregon 40.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 57.0 21 0
Rhode Island 4.0 0 4
South Carolina 87.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 81.0 11 0
Texas 94.0 34 0
Utah 96.0 5 0
Vermont 8.0 0 3
Virginia 88.5 13 0
Washington 29.0 0 11
West Virginia 53.0 5 0
Wisconsin 50.0 0 10
Wyoming 96.0 3 0
Totals   304 234


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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To: Phisher
The weak states are all in the Blue Socialist list--all so far left they smell of old, unwashed and never-changed commie undewear.

Here's a great new book I recommend to all freepers: "An End to Evil" by Frum and Perle. The books spells out the admin's stance on terrorism in a way that is devastatingly clear. It also shoots down the opponents (all RATs and the leftist media!). The authors make it clear that the terrorists are losing, but that Bush and company need to increase the pressure in Iraq, Iran and North Korea and soon.

21 posted on 04/12/2004 3:46:46 PM PDT by Paulus Invictus (4)
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To: Momaw Nadon
District of Columbia is more like 0.001.
22 posted on 04/12/2004 3:47:44 PM PDT by badgerlandjim
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To: gitmo
The presidency is determined not by the popular vote but by the electoral college. President Bush could still lose the popular vote and still win a second term like he did in 2000!
23 posted on 04/12/2004 3:49:10 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: badgerlandjim
Yup. You'll never see DC going for a Republican in our lifetime even if he was a true-bred RINO.
24 posted on 04/12/2004 3:49:59 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Patrick1
We simply cannot be overly-optimistic. The polls on the left still have Kerry leading. It's going to take a lot of grass roots scouring of the Pubbies out there that don't vote and get them to the polls in masse! Keep in mind that the RATs will do all they can, legally and otherwise to win votes. The dead are sure to vote again and again in the Blue states.
25 posted on 04/12/2004 3:50:14 PM PDT by Paulus Invictus (4)
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To: cardinal4
I am betting Bush will have 270 by 700pm EST..

That would be a neat trick. Considering that only Kentucky and Indiana will have their polls closed at that time. I'll settle for 270 9:05PM EST.

26 posted on 04/12/2004 3:51:31 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I'm voting for John Kerry until I vote against him in November)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Throw Hitlery into the mix..then see what happens!
27 posted on 04/12/2004 3:53:37 PM PDT by Don Corleone (Leave the gun..take the cannoli)
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To: Paulus Invictus
I agree one should be cautious. But if the real world trading is any indication of where people's hearts are, its more reliable than a daily tracking poll. I suspect the polls that show Kerry leading more often than not, have people simply tell the pollsters what they want to hear. As long we counteract the partisan media spin, its okay to leave Ketchup Boy's partisans with the pleasant daydream their candidate will win in November. After all nothing would serve our interests better than if the other side became lazy and complacent and thought they had the election in the bag.
28 posted on 04/12/2004 3:55:36 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Phisher
And good old Hawaii continues to be a RAT stronghold in spite of the fact that they depend heavily upon mainland tourism just to stay afloat. It is doubtless the most heavily porked up, corrupt states in the Union per capita and their Congressional and Senatorial reps are among the worst leftists outside of Calipornia.
29 posted on 04/12/2004 3:55:36 PM PDT by Paulus Invictus (4)
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To: Paulus Invictus
That's true. But they have Linda Lingle. So if there's a strong Bush tide, Hawaii may just go for him. In a couple of months we'll find out if the islands will still bestow Seinfeld with a luau.
30 posted on 04/12/2004 3:57:41 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Momaw Nadon
I did a quick calculation of the change this week again:

State Change[toward Bush]
Alabama 2
Alaska 2
Arizona 1
Arkansas -0.5
California -2.5
Colorado 2
Connecticut 0
Delaware -7
DC 0
Florida 0
Georgia 1
Hawaii -4.5
Idaho 0
Illinois -1
Indiana 0.5
Iowa 0
Kansas 0.5
Kentucky 0.5
Louisiana 0
Maine -3.5
Maryland 0.5
Massachusetts 0
Michigan -4
Minnesota -2
Mississippi 0.5
Missouri -1
Montana 1
Nebraska 1
Nevada 2
NH 0
New Jersey 0.5
New Mexico 0
New York -1
North Carolina 0
North Dakota 0
Ohio 2
Oklahoma 0
Oregon 0
Pennsylvania 2
Rhode Island 0
South Carolina 1
South Dakota 0
Tennessee -0.8
Texas 0
Utah 0
Vermont 0
Virginia 0
Washington -4
West Virginia 0
Wisconsin 3
Wyoming 0
31 posted on 04/12/2004 4:05:45 PM PDT by JLS
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To: SamAdams76
Yeah, someone just pointed that out to me! Ill settle for 905 EST, as well..
32 posted on 04/12/2004 4:05:49 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Terrence Maculiffe-Ariolimax columbianus (hint- its a gastropod.....)
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To: goldstategop
Look at Dales Electoral College Breakdown 2004. He does a good analysis of the probable EC votes in 2004.

If you look at states that are STRONG and SAFE for the 2 candidates, it's BUSH 127 and KERRY 61.

If you include states that are LEANING, then it's BUSH 222 and KERRY 209.

Among the states that are SLIGHT, they are all BUSH (+77). That leaves 30 EC votes that are tossups.


gitmo
33 posted on 04/12/2004 4:07:05 PM PDT by gitmo (Thanks, Mel. I needed that.)
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To: Plutarch
And Florida at 61%, Ohio at 60%. This tracks with polls that show that despite all the talk about how these states are toss-ups depending on the economy, Bush actually has a good lead.
34 posted on 04/12/2004 4:09:21 PM PDT by My2Cents ("Well...there you go again.")
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To: Momaw Nadon
If I was a Rat voter there are a couple of teasers...New Mexico, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. I'd be tempted to lay money on them for the sodomite party.
35 posted on 04/12/2004 4:11:43 PM PDT by Archie Bunker on steroids
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To: international american
If Bush does nothing about vote fraud this year, he will lose!!

Only a loser would make that statement.

36 posted on 04/12/2004 4:15:29 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: JLS
Thanks for that breakdown. Here's another

1/21-2/2 Bush 355

2/9-2/16 Bush 321

2/23-3/22 Bush 278

3/29-4/4 Bush 304

After slipping a little in feb and march, the numbers are improving

37 posted on 04/12/2004 4:37:30 PM PDT by paul51
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To: Momaw Nadon; redlipstick; cardinal4; billorites; Plutarch; Theodore R.; So Cal Rocket; ...
here's the data from post 2 shown graphically... 2004.01.26


2004.02.02


2004.02.09


2004.02.16


2004.02.23


2004.03.01


2004.03.08


2004.03.15


2004.03.22


2004.03.29


2004.04.05


2004.04.12




of course, if we get TOO comfortable with these stats, George Soros could go to this trading site and skew these numbers badly by just placing bets in the battleground states.
38 posted on 04/12/2004 5:52:11 PM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: Patrick1
Bush will pick up Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota

That is probably wishful thinking on our part. Republicans always think they will will WI in close races, and it rarely happens. IA was lost as far back as Dukakis, and MN offers hopes only when the Democrats are badly divided among themselves, which they are not in 2004. I also think it will be nearly impossible for Bush to win PA -- Specter will run six to eight points ahead of Bush in my estimation.
39 posted on 04/12/2004 7:30:33 PM PDT by Theodore R. (When will they ever learn?)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Is it possible to buy options on Kerry winning or only Bush?

I would love buy options on Kerry winning D.C. --> they're a steal at 99.0 !!!!
40 posted on 04/12/2004 7:53:39 PM PDT by rhinohunter (Toomey for Senate!!!)
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