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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, April 12, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 04/12/2004 3:11:04 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
94.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
75.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
67.0 |
6 |
0 |
California |
15.0 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
81.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
14.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
22.0 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
1.0 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
61.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
91.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
8.0 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
95.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
17.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
88.0 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
42.0 |
0 |
7 |
Kansas |
93.0 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
87.0 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
83.5 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
19.0 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
18.0 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
4.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
43.0 |
0 |
17 |
Minnesota |
41.0 |
0 |
10 |
Mississippi |
93.0 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
65.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
92.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
96.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
70.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
65.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
18.0 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
57.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
12.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
84.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
60.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
95.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
40.0 |
0 |
7 |
Pennsylvania |
57.0 |
21 |
0 |
Rhode Island |
4.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
87.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
81.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
94.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
96.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
8.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
88.5 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
29.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
53.0 |
5 |
0 |
Wisconsin |
50.0 |
0 |
10 |
Wyoming |
96.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
304 |
234 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.61 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
04/12/2004 3:11:21 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: All
Wisconsin is at 50.0% today.
The bid price is 48.0 and the ask price is 52.0. These average to 50.0.
The tie goes to John Kerry due to Democrat vote fraud.
3
posted on
04/12/2004 3:11:57 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Yay! I was looking for this earlier.
4
posted on
04/12/2004 3:12:05 PM PDT
by
EllaMinnow
("Pessimism never won any battle." - Dwight D. Eisenhower)
To: Momaw Nadon
I am betting Bush will have 270 by 700pm EST..
5
posted on
04/12/2004 3:12:57 PM PDT
by
cardinal4
(Terrence Maculiffe-Ariolimax columbianus (hint- its a gastropod.....)
To: Momaw Nadon
PA at 57%? Wow that is great news!
6
posted on
04/12/2004 3:13:46 PM PDT
by
Plutarch
To: Momaw Nadon
From the Iowa Futures Market site.
7
posted on
04/12/2004 3:14:15 PM PDT
by
billorites
(freepo ergo sum)
To: Momaw Nadon
Thanks Momaw. Unfortunately, Dales didn't do his ECB thread this weekend, so this good news will have to do for this week.:)
8
posted on
04/12/2004 3:16:18 PM PDT
by
WinOne4TheGipper
(See me review DU!: http://ranking.websearch.com/UserReviews.aspx?url=www.democraticunderground.com)
To: Plutarch
PA at 57%? Wow that is great news!
Well, has anybody told Arlen about this probability? Does it square with "Scottish law"?
9
posted on
04/12/2004 3:17:10 PM PDT
by
Theodore R.
(When will they ever learn?)
To: Momaw Nadon
The three states in this survey in which I have the least confidence are WV, PA, and OH, all bordering one another.
10
posted on
04/12/2004 3:18:32 PM PDT
by
Theodore R.
(When will they ever learn?)
To: Theodore R.
And Nebraska is yet again the most republican state.
:)
11
posted on
04/12/2004 3:22:45 PM PDT
by
Phisher
To: WinOne4TheGipper
Dales now does his updates on Wednesdays.
12
posted on
04/12/2004 3:25:09 PM PDT
by
So Cal Rocket
(If consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds, John F. Kerry’s mind must be freaking enormous)
To: Theodore R.
I tend to agree with this trend. It is pretty much what I predicted at the start of the year. I think before it is all said and done Bush will pick up Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota and should have an electoral landslide to go along with a five to six point popular vote win.
13
posted on
04/12/2004 3:27:00 PM PDT
by
Patrick1
To: Momaw Nadon
Really interesting!
14
posted on
04/12/2004 3:32:05 PM PDT
by
tkathy
(nihilism: absolute destructiveness toward the world at large and oneself)
To: Phisher
And Nebraska is yet again the most republican stateSee what clean water, clean air, clean living can do to the mind.
15
posted on
04/12/2004 3:33:04 PM PDT
by
Digger
To: So Cal Rocket
Oops. That's something I must've missed when I was away. Thanks.
16
posted on
04/12/2004 3:34:17 PM PDT
by
WinOne4TheGipper
(See me review DU!: http://ranking.websearch.com/UserReviews.aspx?url=www.democraticunderground.com)
To: Phisher
And Nebraska is yet again the most republican state. I'd prefer a #1 in College Football, but this is a pretty good second.
To: Momaw Nadon
For states with a 90% confidence rate, it's Bush 103 Kerry 26.
For states with an 80% confidence rate, it's Bush 187 Kerry 169.
For states with a 70% confidence rate, it's Bush 202 Kerry 183.
18
posted on
04/12/2004 3:40:28 PM PDT
by
gitmo
(Thanks, Mel. I needed that.)
To: Momaw Nadon
"The tie goes to John Kerry due to Democrat vote fraud."
If Bush does nothing about vote fraud this year, he will lose!!
19
posted on
04/12/2004 3:42:22 PM PDT
by
international american
(Support our troops!! Send Kerry back to Bedlam,Massachusetts!!)
To: Phisher
Please explain the dem. U.S. senator????? Repub. Neb.???
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