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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, April 12, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 04/12/2004 3:11:04 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 94.0 9 0
Alaska 95.0 3 0
Arizona 75.0 10 0
Arkansas 67.0 6 0
California 15.0 0 55
Colorado 81.0 9 0
Connecticut 14.0 0 7
Delaware 22.0 0 3
District of Columbia 1.0 0 3
Florida 61.0 27 0
Georgia 91.0 15 0
Hawaii 8.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 17.0 0 21
Indiana 88.0 11 0
Iowa 42.0 0 7
Kansas 93.0 6 0
Kentucky 87.0 8 0
Louisiana 83.5 9 0
Maine 19.0 0 4
Maryland 18.0 0 10
Massachusetts 4.0 0 12
Michigan 43.0 0 17
Minnesota 41.0 0 10
Mississippi 93.0 6 0
Missouri 65.0 11 0
Montana 92.0 3 0
Nebraska 96.0 5 0
Nevada 70.0 5 0
New Hampshire 65.0 4 0
New Jersey 18.0 0 15
New Mexico 57.0 5 0
New York 12.0 0 31
North Carolina 84.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 60.0 20 0
Oklahoma 95.0 7 0
Oregon 40.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 57.0 21 0
Rhode Island 4.0 0 4
South Carolina 87.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 81.0 11 0
Texas 94.0 34 0
Utah 96.0 5 0
Vermont 8.0 0 3
Virginia 88.5 13 0
Washington 29.0 0 11
West Virginia 53.0 5 0
Wisconsin 50.0 0 10
Wyoming 96.0 3 0
Totals   304 234


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.61 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 04/12/2004 3:11:05 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 04/12/2004 3:11:21 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: All
Wisconsin is at 50.0% today.

The bid price is 48.0 and the ask price is 52.0. These average to 50.0.

The tie goes to John Kerry due to Democrat vote fraud.

3 posted on 04/12/2004 3:11:57 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Yay! I was looking for this earlier.
4 posted on 04/12/2004 3:12:05 PM PDT by EllaMinnow ("Pessimism never won any battle." - Dwight D. Eisenhower)
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To: Momaw Nadon
I am betting Bush will have 270 by 700pm EST..
5 posted on 04/12/2004 3:12:57 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Terrence Maculiffe-Ariolimax columbianus (hint- its a gastropod.....)
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To: Momaw Nadon
PA at 57%? Wow that is great news!
6 posted on 04/12/2004 3:13:46 PM PDT by Plutarch
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To: Momaw Nadon

From the Iowa Futures Market site.

7 posted on 04/12/2004 3:14:15 PM PDT by billorites (freepo ergo sum)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Thanks Momaw. Unfortunately, Dales didn't do his ECB thread this weekend, so this good news will have to do for this week.:)
8 posted on 04/12/2004 3:16:18 PM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper (See me review DU!: http://ranking.websearch.com/UserReviews.aspx?url=www.democraticunderground.com)
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To: Plutarch
PA at 57%? Wow that is great news!

Well, has anybody told Arlen about this probability? Does it square with "Scottish law"?
9 posted on 04/12/2004 3:17:10 PM PDT by Theodore R. (When will they ever learn?)
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To: Momaw Nadon
The three states in this survey in which I have the least confidence are WV, PA, and OH, all bordering one another.
10 posted on 04/12/2004 3:18:32 PM PDT by Theodore R. (When will they ever learn?)
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To: Theodore R.
And Nebraska is yet again the most republican state.


:)
11 posted on 04/12/2004 3:22:45 PM PDT by Phisher
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To: WinOne4TheGipper
Dales now does his updates on Wednesdays.
12 posted on 04/12/2004 3:25:09 PM PDT by So Cal Rocket (If consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds, John F. Kerry’s mind must be freaking enormous)
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To: Theodore R.
I tend to agree with this trend. It is pretty much what I predicted at the start of the year. I think before it is all said and done Bush will pick up Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota and should have an electoral landslide to go along with a five to six point popular vote win.
13 posted on 04/12/2004 3:27:00 PM PDT by Patrick1
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To: Momaw Nadon
Really interesting!
14 posted on 04/12/2004 3:32:05 PM PDT by tkathy (nihilism: absolute destructiveness toward the world at large and oneself)
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To: Phisher
And Nebraska is yet again the most republican state

See what clean water, clean air, clean living can do to the mind.

15 posted on 04/12/2004 3:33:04 PM PDT by Digger
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To: So Cal Rocket
Oops. That's something I must've missed when I was away. Thanks.
16 posted on 04/12/2004 3:34:17 PM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper (See me review DU!: http://ranking.websearch.com/UserReviews.aspx?url=www.democraticunderground.com)
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To: Phisher
And Nebraska is yet again the most republican state.

I'd prefer a #1 in College Football, but this is a pretty good second.

17 posted on 04/12/2004 3:36:23 PM PDT by Right Wing Professor
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To: Momaw Nadon
For states with a 90% confidence rate, it's Bush 103 Kerry 26.

For states with an 80% confidence rate, it's Bush 187 Kerry 169.

For states with a 70% confidence rate, it's Bush 202 Kerry 183.


gitmo
18 posted on 04/12/2004 3:40:28 PM PDT by gitmo (Thanks, Mel. I needed that.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
"The tie goes to John Kerry due to Democrat vote fraud."

If Bush does nothing about vote fraud this year, he will lose!!


19 posted on 04/12/2004 3:42:22 PM PDT by international american (Support our troops!! Send Kerry back to Bedlam,Massachusetts!!)
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To: Phisher
Please explain the dem. U.S. senator????? Repub. Neb.???
20 posted on 04/12/2004 3:43:34 PM PDT by truthbesaid34
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