[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.61 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

Wisconsin is at 50.0% today.

The bid price is 48.0 and the ask price is 52.0. These average to 50.0.

The tie goes to John Kerry due to Democrat vote fraud.

[EllaMinnow]

Yay! I was looking for this earlier.

[cardinal4]

I am betting Bush will have 270 by 700pm EST..

[billorites]

From the Iowa Futures Market site.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Thanks Momaw. Unfortunately, Dales didn't do his ECB thread this weekend, so this good news will have to do for this week.:)

[Theodore R.]

The three states in this survey in which I have the least confidence are WV, PA, and OH, all bordering one another.

[tkathy]

Really interesting!

[gitmo]

For states with a 90% confidence rate, it's Bush 103 Kerry 26.

For states with an 80% confidence rate, it's Bush 187 Kerry 169.

For states with a 70% confidence rate, it's Bush 202 Kerry 183.

[badgerlandjim]

District of Columbia is more like 0.001.

[Don Corleone]

Throw Hitlery into the mix..then see what happens!

[JLS]

I did a quick calculation of the change this week again:

State Change[toward Bush]
Alabama 2
Alaska 2
Arizona 1
Arkansas -0.5
California -2.5
Colorado 2
Connecticut 0
Delaware -7
DC 0
Florida 0
Georgia 1
Hawaii -4.5
Idaho 0
Illinois -1
Indiana 0.5
Iowa 0
Kansas 0.5
Kentucky 0.5
Louisiana 0
Maine -3.5
Maryland 0.5
Massachusetts 0
Michigan -4
Minnesota -2
Mississippi 0.5
Missouri -1
Montana 1
Nebraska 1
Nevada 2
NH 0
New Jersey 0.5
New Mexico 0
New York -1
North Carolina 0
North Dakota 0
Ohio 2
Oklahoma 0
Oregon 0
Pennsylvania 2
Rhode Island 0
South Carolina 1
South Dakota 0
Tennessee -0.8
Texas 0
Utah 0
Vermont 0
Virginia 0
Washington -4
West Virginia 0
Wisconsin 3
Wyoming 0

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

If I was a Rat voter there are a couple of teasers...New Mexico, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. I'd be tempted to lay money on them for the sodomite party.

[rhinohunter]

Is it possible to buy options on Kerry winning or only Bush?

I would love buy options on Kerry winning D.C. --> they're a steal at 99.0 !!!!

[Lily4Jesus]

California will be a surprise. Arnold promised to deliver CA for W. and I second that. Never mind the IFS. Just watch. Don't believe the liberals. Someone is working behind the scene.