2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 15, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	92.0	9	0
Alaska	93.0	3	0
Arizona	73.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.0	6	0
California	17.0	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	13.0	0	7
Delaware	23.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	62.0	27	0
Georgia	91.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	18.0	0	21
Indiana	87.0	11	0
Iowa	46.0	0	7
Kansas	92.0	6	0
Kentucky	87.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	35.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	5.0	0	12
Michigan	37.0	0	17
Minnesota	31.0	0	10
Mississippi	92.0	6	0
Missouri	63.0	11	0
Montana	91.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	65.0	5	0
New Hampshire	59.0	4	0
New Jersey	17.0	0	15
New Mexico	58.0	5	0
New York	15.0	0	31
North Carolina	82.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	36.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	49.0	0	21
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	87.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	77.0	11	0
Texas	94.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	88.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	49.0	0	5
Wisconsin	47.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 288.88 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Patrick1]

Great..this always cheers up the doom and gloomers on here.

[Lexinom]

Total chance of winning, given these probabilies:

63.42%

Sum / 51

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

Bush will get over 300 electoral votes

[blackie]

We are winning ~ the bad guys are losing ~ trolls, terrorists, democrats and the mainstream media are sad ~ very sad!

~~ Bush/Cheney 2004 ~~

[Patrick1]

I agree.

[dalebert]

I think Bush could take Calif.

[princess leah]

Are they counting the dead votes and the Florida 2-for-1 voters who vote up in New York as well?

[netmilsmom]

Bush will not take Ohio because of their Rino Governor. Subtract 20 from Bush.

[So Cal Rocket]

From last week, Bush has gained ground in:
Georgia
Idaho
Iowa*
Kansas
Louisiana
Massachusetts
Nebraska
New Hampshire*
New Jersey*
Oklahoma
Texas
Virginia
West Virginia*
Wisconsin

Bush has lost ground in:
Arkansas
California
Delaware
DC
Florida*
Illinois
Kentucky
Michigan*
Minnesota*
Missouri
Tennessee

*battleground state

[MineralMan]

Totals 355 183


These were the totals in January. What happened? Now it's 278 to 260.

I don't think it's time to relax just yet. Ohio's in play, and could be lost. FL's not a lock, either. No time to relax.

[JTG]

I see Bush winning Minnesota and Wisconsin, and Kerry possibly winning Florida. I think that Arizona is safe for Bush, and that Oregon and Washington are safe for Kerry(although Nader could put those in play for Bush). I think Bush will still carry New Hampshire and has a shot to carry Maine.

[Dave S]

Totals 355 183 These were the totals in January. What happened? Now it's 278 to 260

Remember Howard Dean??

[curmudgeonII]

Bush has a chance of winning both Florida and Ohio by considerably more than 60%?
Come on, now.

[raloxk]

where did you see this:

I doubt very much Bush will lose in:

AR
KY
TN

Bush could lose FL and MO

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I come up with 98.2% if you accept the stated probabilities. I formed the weighted sum of the Bush Votes, for instance Alabama is worth 9 x 0.92 = 8.28 votes and found the variance for each state, for instance for Alabama = 9*0.92*(1-0.92)= 0.664. I get the expected number of votes for GWB = 288.88 with a variance of 80.94 votes squarted >> a standard deviation of 9.00 votes. That means that W is 2.1 sd above 270. The probability under the far tail, the probability of NOT winning =(1-ERF(((288.88-270)/9)/SQRT(2)))/2= 0.017927869 ~ 1.8% . This requires that you accept the stated probabilities.

We may only be a train bombing away from becoming Canada.

[amordei]

Kerry will not even compete in Florida. He will use his limited funds on states with a better return.

[Patrick1]

Florida is not a battleground state.

[mtbopfuyn]

If we could kick out Houston and Austin, Bush would carry TX 100%, but I'll settle for the current 94%.