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I come up with 98.2% if you accept the stated probabilities. I formed the weighted sum of the Bush Votes, for instance Alabama is worth 9 x 0.92 = 8.28 votes and found the variance for each state, for instance for Alabama = 9*0.92*(1-0.92)= 0.664. I get the expected number of votes for GWB = 288.88 with a variance of 80.94 votes squarted >> a standard deviation of 9.00 votes. That means that W is 2.1 sd above 270. The probability under the far tail, the probability of NOT winning =(1-ERF(((288.88-270)/9)/SQRT(2)))/2= 0.017927869 ~ 1.8% . This requires that you accept the stated probabilities.

We may only be a train bombing away from becoming Canada.