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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 15, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 03/15/2004 2:30:03 PM PST by Momaw Nadon

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I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 288.88 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 03/15/2004 2:30:04 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 03/15/2004 2:30:30 PM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Great..this always cheers up the doom and gloomers on here.
3 posted on 03/15/2004 2:34:04 PM PST by Patrick1
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To: Momaw Nadon
Total chance of winning, given these probabilies:

63.42%

Sum / 51
4 posted on 03/15/2004 2:36:21 PM PST by Lexinom
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To: Patrick1
Bush will get over 300 electoral votes
5 posted on 03/15/2004 2:36:47 PM PST by CROSSHIGHWAYMAN (I don't believe anything a Democrat says. Bill Clinton set the standard!)
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To: Momaw Nadon
We are winning ~ the bad guys are losing ~ trolls, terrorists, democrats and the mainstream media are sad ~ very sad!

~~ Bush/Cheney 2004 ~~

6 posted on 03/15/2004 2:37:36 PM PST by blackie (Be Well~Be Armed~Be Safe~Molon Labe!)
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To: CROSSHIGHWAYMAN
I agree.
7 posted on 03/15/2004 2:38:26 PM PST by Patrick1
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To: Momaw Nadon
I think Bush could take Calif.
8 posted on 03/15/2004 2:40:22 PM PST by dalebert
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To: Patrick1
Are they counting the dead votes and the Florida 2-for-1 voters who vote up in New York as well?
9 posted on 03/15/2004 2:41:04 PM PST by princess leah
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To: Momaw Nadon
Bush will not take Ohio because of their Rino Governor. Subtract 20 from Bush.
10 posted on 03/15/2004 2:42:56 PM PST by netmilsmom (Ultrakonservativen Activists FReeper Frau!)
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To: Momaw Nadon
From last week, Bush has gained ground in:
Georgia
Idaho
Iowa*
Kansas
Louisiana
Massachusetts
Nebraska
New Hampshire*
New Jersey*
Oklahoma
Texas
Virginia
West Virginia*
Wisconsin

Bush has lost ground in:
Arkansas
California
Delaware
DC
Florida*
Illinois
Kentucky
Michigan*
Minnesota*
Missouri
Tennessee

*battleground state
11 posted on 03/15/2004 2:45:19 PM PST by So Cal Rocket (If consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds, John F. Kerry’s mind must be freaking enormous)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Totals 355 183


These were the totals in January. What happened? Now it's 278 to 260.

I don't think it's time to relax just yet. Ohio's in play, and could be lost. FL's not a lock, either. No time to relax.
12 posted on 03/15/2004 2:46:07 PM PST by MineralMan (godless atheist)
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To: Momaw Nadon
I see Bush winning Minnesota and Wisconsin, and Kerry possibly winning Florida. I think that Arizona is safe for Bush, and that Oregon and Washington are safe for Kerry(although Nader could put those in play for Bush). I think Bush will still carry New Hampshire and has a shot to carry Maine.
13 posted on 03/15/2004 2:52:30 PM PST by JTG
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To: MineralMan
Totals 355 183 These were the totals in January. What happened? Now it's 278 to 260

Remember Howard Dean??

14 posted on 03/15/2004 2:54:56 PM PST by Dave S
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To: Momaw Nadon
Bush has a chance of winning both Florida and Ohio by considerably more than 60%?
Come on, now.
15 posted on 03/15/2004 3:00:50 PM PST by curmudgeonII (Time wound all heels.)
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To: So Cal Rocket
where did you see this:

I doubt very much Bush will lose in:

AR
KY
TN

Bush could lose FL and MO
16 posted on 03/15/2004 3:02:41 PM PST by raloxk
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To: Lexinom
I come up with 98.2% if you accept the stated probabilities. I formed the weighted sum of the Bush Votes, for instance Alabama is worth 9 x 0.92 = 8.28 votes and found the variance for each state, for instance for Alabama = 9*0.92*(1-0.92)= 0.664. I get the expected number of votes for GWB = 288.88 with a variance of 80.94 votes squarted >> a standard deviation of 9.00 votes. That means that W is 2.1 sd above 270. The probability under the far tail, the probability of NOT winning =(1-ERF(((288.88-270)/9)/SQRT(2)))/2= 0.017927869 ~ 1.8% . This requires that you accept the stated probabilities.

We may only be a train bombing away from becoming Canada.
17 posted on 03/15/2004 3:02:46 PM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Uday and Qusay are ead-day)
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To: JTG
Kerry will not even compete in Florida. He will use his limited funds on states with a better return.
18 posted on 03/15/2004 3:05:05 PM PST by amordei
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To: So Cal Rocket
Florida is not a battleground state.
19 posted on 03/15/2004 3:05:26 PM PST by Patrick1
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To: Momaw Nadon
If we could kick out Houston and Austin, Bush would carry TX 100%, but I'll settle for the current 94%.
20 posted on 03/15/2004 3:06:59 PM PST by mtbopfuyn
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