2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 15, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Allegra]

Too close for comfort. I want a LANDSLIDE in the proportions of Nixon vs. McGovern in '72.

[Political Junkie Too]

I also haven't looked at states that Bush won where he should have lost, in elections that he won. I wonder what that would show?

I just looked at this. Not much to see here.

Since Bush wins in about 70% of the elections, the wins that he should have lost don't amount to much. They are:

Bush won Pennsylvania (21 EV) in 15.78% of the winning elections.
Bush won Michigan (17 EV) in 12.14% of the winning elections.
Bush won Washington (11 EV) in 13.54% of the winning elections.
Bush won Wisconsin (10 EV) in 18.81% of the winning elections.
Bush won Minnesota (10 EV) in 11.63% of the winning elections.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Dales' numbers paint a different picture.

Using Dales' assessment, Bush's expected electoral vote count is 280 to Kerry's 258. The probability of Bush reaching 270 electoral votes is 57%. Dales shows a much closer election, where the battleground states are more varied.

The top 5 electoral vote states that Bush loses that he should have won, in losing elections are:

Texas (34 EV) in 15.78% of losing elections.
Ohio (24 EV) in 38.5% of losing elections.
North Carolina (15 EV) in 36.06% of losing elections.
New Jersey (15 EV) in 47.76% of losing elections.
Georgia (15 EV) in 36.51% of losing elections.

The top 5 percent losses that Bush should have won are:

New Jersey (15 EV) in 47.76% of losing elections.
Arizona (10 EV) in 45.58% of losing elections.
New Hampshire (4 EV) in 43.19% of losing elections.
Nevada (5 EV) in 43% of losing elections.
Ohio (24 EV) in 38.5% of losing elections.

The top 5 electoral vote states that Bush wins that he should have lost, in winning elections are:

California (55 EV) in 4.6% of winning elections.
New York (31 EV) in 6.4% of winning elections.
Florida (27 EV) in 18.98% of winning elections.
Illinois (21 EV) in 9% of winning elections.
Michigan (17 EV) in 22.65% of winning elections.

The top 5 percent wins that Bush should have lost are:

Iowa (7 EV) in 26.8% of winning elections.
New Mexico (5 EV) in 26.01% of winning elections.
Minnesota (10 EV) in 25.66% of winning elections.
Michigan (17 EV) in 22.65% of winning elections.
Oregon (7 EV) in 19.92% of winning elections.

-PJ

[longtermmemmory]

I wold not take that FL bet. Kerry is not running any commercials in FL. It is as if he has conceeded the state.

Kerry has a problem in Miami with the elderly who have issues with his social agenda. (Homosexual marriage impacting social security and immigration. Security for Israel. National Security, there are two major seaports in the area.)

In FL the democrat party is essentially run by the teacher's union. Redistricting went from bad to worse for them. (BTW anytime you see congressman Meeks, it must be a payoff to FL democrats.)

[rmsage]

This is very interesting. Thank you for gathering it all together. I did a Monte Carlo analysis of the numbers. I was surprised to find out that Bush has only a 66% chance of winning. Yes, if you throw a die, Kerry wins on 1 or 2.

Perhaps someone will check my math.