Posted on 03/15/2004 2:30:03 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 92.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 73.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 67.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 17.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 80.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 13.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 23.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 62.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 91.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 13.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 18.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 87.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 46.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 92.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 87.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 83.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 35.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 17.5 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 5.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 37.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 31.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 92.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 63.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 91.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 95.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 65.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 59.0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 17.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 58.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New York | 15.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 82.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 65.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 95.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 36.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 49.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 87.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 77.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 94.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 95.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 7.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 88.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 35.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 49.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Wisconsin | 47.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 278 | 260 |
I just looked at this. Not much to see here.
Since Bush wins in about 70% of the elections, the wins that he should have lost don't amount to much. They are:
Bush won Pennsylvania (21 EV) in 15.78% of the winning elections.
Bush won Michigan (17 EV) in 12.14% of the winning elections.
Bush won Washington (11 EV) in 13.54% of the winning elections.
Bush won Wisconsin (10 EV) in 18.81% of the winning elections.
Bush won Minnesota (10 EV) in 11.63% of the winning elections.
-PJ
Using Dales' assessment, Bush's expected electoral vote count is 280 to Kerry's 258. The probability of Bush reaching 270 electoral votes is 57%. Dales shows a much closer election, where the battleground states are more varied.
The top 5 electoral vote states that Bush loses that he should have won, in losing elections are:
Texas (34 EV) in 15.78% of losing elections.
Ohio (24 EV) in 38.5% of losing elections.
North Carolina (15 EV) in 36.06% of losing elections.
New Jersey (15 EV) in 47.76% of losing elections.
Georgia (15 EV) in 36.51% of losing elections.
The top 5 percent losses that Bush should have won are:
New Jersey (15 EV) in 47.76% of losing elections.
Arizona (10 EV) in 45.58% of losing elections.
New Hampshire (4 EV) in 43.19% of losing elections.
Nevada (5 EV) in 43% of losing elections.
Ohio (24 EV) in 38.5% of losing elections.
The top 5 electoral vote states that Bush wins that he should have lost, in winning elections are:
California (55 EV) in 4.6% of winning elections.
New York (31 EV) in 6.4% of winning elections.
Florida (27 EV) in 18.98% of winning elections.
Illinois (21 EV) in 9% of winning elections.
Michigan (17 EV) in 22.65% of winning elections.
The top 5 percent wins that Bush should have lost are:
Iowa (7 EV) in 26.8% of winning elections.
New Mexico (5 EV) in 26.01% of winning elections.
Minnesota (10 EV) in 25.66% of winning elections.
Michigan (17 EV) in 22.65% of winning elections.
Oregon (7 EV) in 19.92% of winning elections.
-PJ
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