[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Dog Gone]

I guess the reason why Bush has a 2% chance of winning DC is because you can't be positive how people on crack will vote.

[PetroniDE]

Do this calculation.

For each state, take the EV times the percentage chance of winning. Example. Bush has 85% chance to win State X with 10 EV. Bush gets 8.5, Kerry gets 1.5.

I realize each state (except ME/NE) is winner-take-all. This method gives an overall likely EV count that will fluctuate a little, since Bush will win some states projected <50% and will lose some state projected >50%.

[Momaw Nadon]

Ping!

[11th_VA]

Bush has gone from 355 ECVs to 278 in a month. Hope he's hit the bottom...

[NautiNurse]

It's turned into a squeaker since the Jan 21 projections.

Florida at 68% with 27 EV is a nail biter again.

[Numbers Guy]

The only changes from 2000 are New Mexico going for Bush and West Virginia going for the Dem (5 votes each way). Bush's electoral vote total is higher than in 2000 due to the shift of Congressional seats toward the Sun Belt, reflected in the last census.

Lowest probability states for Bush currently in his column:

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5), both at 58%. If he lost both and the rest went the same as predicted, it's a 269-269 tie (though states' House delegations vote based on one vote per delegation and Bush would win that).

After that we have Missouri (11) 65%, Nevada (4) 65%, Ohio (20) 65%, Florida (27) 68%.

Methinks the Dems make a huge push in Missouri and Ohio, either one of those could decide the race if it's close.

[So Cal Rocket]

Changes from last week's forecast:

Bush loses Michigan (-17 electoral votes)
Bush loses Pennsylvania (-21 electoral votes)
Bush loses West Virginia (-5 electoral votes)

[11th_VA]

Assume he loses NH as well, and squeeks by with 274 votes, but with two FEWER states than he won in 2000 (WV & NH). Man, the DU would go crazy, riots in the streets, I think that's gonna happen if Bush wins anyway...

[GiveEmDubya]

It looks like all but 1 of the close (within about 5 points) percentages are blue states. Not a bad sign.

Honestly, I think Kerry has pretty much topped out. To me, he is less electable than Gore and not even Gore could manage an Electoral College majority.

[MagnusMaximus1]

Bush loses Ohio and/or Missouri:
IF not on the issue on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs,
then, probably,
on the issues of God, guns, gays and abortion (ie. IF Dubya does not move right enough on these).

[chimera]

This race is going to go down to the wire, as I expected all along, and that will be because of economic issues. Bush is about out of time on that. And sending Mankiw and Snow out to shoot their mouths off and shoot themselves in the foot won't help things. The memory of 9/11 will be long gone from the (somewhat vacuous) minds of most of the electorate. Those who were predicting a blowout for Bush only a few weeks ago might as well have been on crack. Look for OH or MO to be the FL of this election. And keep an eye on vote fraud elsewhere. The Rats will do ANYTHING to beat Bush this time around.

[The Wizard]

my guess is GWB wins big time

[jpl]

I think there's a strong possibility that these numbers we see here could end up being the actual numbers in the election. Bush can most definitely win, but anyone who stills entertains notions of a landslide is simply deluding himself.

[Plutarch]

Pennsylvania 49.0 (chance of Bush winning) 21 Electoral Votes

All the more reason to pick Rick Santorum as V.P. Those are 21 votes the Dems would find it almost impossible to make up. Having a Northeasterner and a Catholic might help in other battleground states (e.g. NH, OH, MI, NJ, WV)

Bush would probably still earn Wyoming's 3 votes with Cheney relegated to State, Defense or Chief of Staff.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Still significant advantage Bush.

In Kerry's closest states he's at:

PA 51%
WI 51
WV 53
MI 53
IA 58
MN 59
ME 61
OR 61
WA 65

Meanwhile in Bush's closest states, the President is up:

NH 58%
NM 58
MO 65
NV 65
OH 65
FL 68

And Bush has the EC lead.

[rotstan]

Everyone should take a close look at the John Kerry contract - if ever there was a bubble stock / contract, this is it. Can't wait for the collapse - too bad we can't short him!!

[Tennessean4Bush]

Ohio at 65% for Bush is a stretch if recent reports of that being a battleground state are accurate

[Recovering_Democrat]

Much closer in recent days, isn't it? :(