2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 23, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	18.0	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	35.0	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	68.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	30.0	0	21
Indiana	87.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	80.0	9	0
Maine	39.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	47.0	0	17
Minnesota	41.0	0	10
Mississippi	94.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	91.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	65.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	16.0	0	15
New Mexico	58.0	5	0
New York	15.0	0	31
North Carolina	85.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	39.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	49.0	0	21
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	87.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	85.0	11	0
Texas	93.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	85.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	47.0	0	5
Wisconsin	49.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[The Wizard]

my guess is GWB wins big time

[jpl]

I think there's a strong possibility that these numbers we see here could end up being the actual numbers in the election. Bush can most definitely win, but anyone who stills entertains notions of a landslide is simply deluding himself.

[wjcsux]

Don't count on GWB taking NM! Everyone who has lived in this state since Don Juan Onate always votes RAT!

[MagnusMaximus1]

I agree, though Edwards, with anyone-for-VP, would do even better against Bush - especially since Edwards does not have such a "flip/flop on the issues" record as Kerry does.

However, a Kerry/Gephardt ticket may squeek by - on the economic issues, especially.

P.S. IMHO, Florida is still in play for the Dems. After, certain senile, idiot voters in Palm Beach County won't have Buchanan to vote for again. ;-)

[chimera]

Class warfare specialist Gephardt would about sew up the job losses issue for the Rats, and probably delivery MO for the Rats. I don't see how Bush could counter that loss. Bush is also going to have a tough time with NV because of Yucca Mountain. The Rats will demagogue him to death on it. Partisan warrior Harry Reid is already sharpening his knives for that one. Bush probably has to pick off MN and NM to counter that. NM is problematic because of Richardson, who will make the vote fraud of 2000 there look like child's play. Others have talked about Minnesota. All I can say to that is, Mondull over Reagan in '84, and Jesse V. just a few years ago. Kerry has to have the advantage.

Sorry to seem pessimistic, but I think we have to run like we're behind. Thinking it's going to be a blowout for Bush is the surest way to lose. We tried that in the lead-up to '92 and it backfired big time.

[SamAdams76]

I went ahead and did this. For example, in Texas, where there are 34 EV and Bush is assigned a 93% of winning, he gets only 31.62 EV assigned to him. Conversely, in Kerry states, Bush gets a portion of those EV. For example, in California, where Bush is only assigned an 18% chance of winning, he gets 9.9 of the 55 EV in that state.

So...drum roll please, here are the projected results:

BUSH - 307.075 EV
KERRY - 230.925 EV

[Shermy]

And sending Mankiw and Snow out to shoot their mouths off and shoot themselves in the foot won't help things.

Mankiw merely had the lack of tact to tell the truth about what the Bush policy is.

[Plutarch]

Pennsylvania 49.0 (chance of Bush winning) 21 Electoral Votes

All the more reason to pick Rick Santorum as V.P. Those are 21 votes the Dems would find it almost impossible to make up. Having a Northeasterner and a Catholic might help in other battleground states (e.g. NH, OH, MI, NJ, WV)

Bush would probably still earn Wyoming's 3 votes with Cheney relegated to State, Defense or Chief of Staff.

[zbigreddogz]

Bush loses West Virginia? With gun grabbing Kerry as his opponent? I don't think so.

He might lose there to Edwards or a southern Dem, maybe, but I don't think the folk from WV are gonna vote for a Massachusets gun grabbing liberal.

They didn't go for Gore, and given that, I don't see how they can go for Kerry.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Still significant advantage Bush.

In Kerry's closest states he's at:

PA 51%
WI 51
WV 53
MI 53
IA 58
MN 59
ME 61
OR 61
WA 65

Meanwhile in Bush's closest states, the President is up:

NH 58%
NM 58
MO 65
NV 65
OH 65
FL 68

And Bush has the EC lead.

[rotstan]

Everyone should take a close look at the John Kerry contract - if ever there was a bubble stock / contract, this is it. Can't wait for the collapse - too bad we can't short him!!

[HostileTerritory]

Bush loses Michigan (-17 electoral votes)
Bush loses Pennsylvania (-21 electoral votes)

Well, those aren't changes from last week, those are optimistic predictions that were never likely to come to pass. Things may still swing that way, but I doubt it.

[Momaw Nadon]

John Kerry to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee

[Momaw Nadon]

George W Bush is re-elected as United States President.

[raloxk]

I am tired of people thinking that Gephart can deliver MO just because he lives there. He NEVER ran a statewide race.

Additionally, if he had such drawing power with unions, why did he come in 4th in IA????

[raloxk]

no Mankiw is an idiot because he doesnt know the difference between a faculty launge at a university and the real political world

[inquest]

Interesting chart. They had Kerry down below what appears to be 5% then up over 90%. It might call into question the abiltities of this website to come up with good numbers. Of course, a 5% chance still means there's a chance, which means that fortunes can change quickly, but too many more graphs like that would have to seriously make one wonder as to their methodology.

[olde north church]

"Man, the DU would go crazy, riots in the streets, I think that's gonna happen if Bush wins anyway..."
Riots in the streets? They don't even follow up on their promises to leave the country. Riots in the streets? 100, 000 mimes pretending to walk against the wind?
Well, if there are riots in the street, just make sure your ammo locker is well stocked.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Ohio at 65% for Bush is a stretch if recent reports of that being a battleground state are accurate

[inquest]

65% is still pretty "battlegroundish". If you were told there's only a 65% chance you'll keep your job, I think you might start getting a little concerned.