[PetroniDE]

Do this calculation.

For each state, take the EV times the percentage chance of winning. Example. Bush has 85% chance to win State X with 10 EV. Bush gets 8.5, Kerry gets 1.5.

I realize each state (except ME/NE) is winner-take-all. This method gives an overall likely EV count that will fluctuate a little, since Bush will win some states projected <50% and will lose some state projected >50%.

[ScaniaBoy]

Another, quicker way to see that Bush's electoral votes are holding up nicely (at this v early stage) is the fact that in 6 states totalling 70 electoral votes Bush needs a swing of less than 10% to win,whereas he has such a slender lead in only two states (NH and New Mexico) totalling 8 electoral votes.

ScaniaBoy

[Momaw Nadon]

Do this calculation. For each state, take the EV times the percentage chance of winning.

This method gives an overall likely EV count

According to this calculation, I get 55.42% X 538 = 298.14 Bush Electoral Votes.

[SamAdams76]

I went ahead and did this. For example, in Texas, where there are 34 EV and Bush is assigned a 93% of winning, he gets only 31.62 EV assigned to him. Conversely, in Kerry states, Bush gets a portion of those EV. For example, in California, where Bush is only assigned an 18% chance of winning, he gets 9.9 of the 55 EV in that state.

So...drum roll please, here are the projected results:

BUSH - 307.075 EV
KERRY - 230.925 EV