2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 23, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	18.0	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	35.0	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	68.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	30.0	0	21
Indiana	87.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	80.0	9	0
Maine	39.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	47.0	0	17
Minnesota	41.0	0	10
Mississippi	94.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	91.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	65.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	16.0	0	15
New Mexico	58.0	5	0
New York	15.0	0	31
North Carolina	85.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	39.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	49.0	0	21
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	87.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	85.0	11	0
Texas	93.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	85.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	47.0	0	5
Wisconsin	49.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[Chris Talk]

This projection just says that Bush will win exactly the states that he did in 2000... and no more... except that you have him losing in West Va and winning in New Mex, which exactly cancel each other because each has 5 votes.

Thus Bush is up only by the 7 votes caused by the census re-districting.

[longtermmemmory]

It depends on the voter fraud factor. This time it will not be 10% it will be 25%. With the e-machines and no paper trail its a dead cert.

[buckalfa]

In WV you have to consider Bush a definite underdog
simply because of lack of job growth and access to
affordable health care. The Dem's also have a two to one
edge in voter registration. Byrd and Rockefeller still
can turn out the vote. Fortunately for GWB, these
senate icons pretty much sat out the 2000 election.
Kerry will pull 55% in the Mountain State in 2004.

[supercat]

According to this calculation, I get 55.42% X 538 = 298.14 Bush Electoral Votes. Mee too.

Alabama	95%	8.6	0.4
Alaska	94%	2.8	0.2
Arizona	75%	7.5	2.5
Arkansas	70%	4.2	1.8
California	18%	9.9	45.1
Colorado	80%	7.2	1.8
Connecticut	20%	1.4	5.6
Delaware	35%	1.0	2.0
District of Columbia	2%	0.1	2.9
Florida	68%	18.4	8.6
Georgia	90%	13.5	1.5
Hawaii	13%	0.5	3.5
Idaho	95%	3.8	0.2
Illinois	30%	6.3	14.7
Indiana	87%	9.6	1.4
Iowa	42%	2.9	4.1
Kansas	92%	5.5	0.5
SUBTOTAL		103.2	96.8

Kentucky	88%	7.0	1.0
Louisiana	80%	7.2	1.8
Maine	39%	1.6	2.4
Maryland	18%	1.8	8.3
Massachusetts	4%	0.5	11.5
Michigan	47%	8.0	9.0
Minnesota	41%	4.1	5.9
Mississippi	94%	5.6	0.4
Missouri	65%	7.2	3.8
Montana	91%	2.7	0.3
Nebraska	95%	4.8	0.3
Nevada	65%	3.3	1.8
New Hampshire	58%	2.3	1.7
New Jersey	16%	2.4	12.6
New Mexico	58%	2.9	2.1
New York	15%	4.7	26.4
North Carolina	85%	12.8	2.3
SUBTOTAL		78.7	91.3

North Dakota	95%	2.8	0.2
Ohio	65%	13.0	7.0
Oklahoma	93%	6.5	0.5
Oregon	39%	2.7	4.3
Pennsylvania	49%	10.3	10.7
Rhode Island	5%	0.2	3.8
South Carolina	87%	7.0	1.0
South Dakota	95%	2.8	0.2
Tennessee	85%	9.4	1.6
Texas	93%	31.6	2.4
Utah	95%	4.8	0.3
Vermont	7%	0.2	2.8
Virginia	85%	11.1	2.0
Washington	35%	3.8	7.2
West Virginia	47%	2.3	2.7
Wisconsin	49%	4.9	5.1
Wyoming	95%	2.8	0.2
SUBTOTAL		116.3	51.7

FINAL TOTALS:

BUSH 298.1

KERRY 239.9

[supercat]

So...drum roll please, here are the projected results: BUSH - 307.075 EV KERRY - 230.925 EV

Hmmm... I got different results [see above]. Though there is an important factor not considered in these numbers: what is the likelihood that a state will vote for a particular candidate if it matters?

It's possible that one or other candidate will self-destruct so badly as to give the other a landslide. That is probably the only way that certain states will ever go for the other candidate.

BTW, I tried adjusting the formula that divvies up Electoral votes based upon winning likelihood. The proportion of votes given to a candidate is a³/(a³+b³), where "a" is the probability of that candidate winning and "b" is the probability of the opponent winning. This if a candidate has a 55% winning edge, he'll get most of the electoral votes but the oponent will get a few. If a candidate has an 80% winning edge, he'll get almost all of the votes. Here's that table:

Alabama	95%	100%	9.0	0.0
Alaska	94%	100%	3.0	0.0
Arizona	75%	96%	9.6	0.4
Arkansas	70%	93%	5.6	0.4
California	18%	1%	0.6	54.4
Colorado	80%	98%	8.9	0.1
Connecticut	20%	2%	0.1	6.9
Delaware	35%	14%	0.4	2.6
District of Columbia	2%	0%	0.0	3.0
Florida	68%	91%	24.5	2.5
Georgia	90%	100%	15.0	0.0
Hawaii	13%	0%	0.0	4.0
Idaho	95%	100%	4.0	0.0
Illinois	30%	7%	1.5	19.5
Indiana	87%	100%	11.0	0.0
Iowa	42%	28%	1.9	5.1
Kansas	92%	100%	6.0	0.0
SUBTOTAL			101.0	99.0

Kentucky	88%	100%	8.0	0.0
Louisiana	80%	98%	8.9	0.1
Maine	39%	21%	0.8	3.2
Maryland	18%	1%	0.1	9.9
Massachusetts	4%	0%	0.0	12.0
Michigan	47%	41%	7.0	10.0
Minnesota	41%	25%	2.5	7.5
Mississippi	94%	100%	6.0	0.0
Missouri	65%	86%	9.5	1.5
Montana	91%	100%	3.0	0.0
Nebraska	95%	100%	5.0	0.0
Nevada	65%	86%	4.3	0.7
New Hampshire	58%	72%	2.9	1.1
New Jersey	16%	1%	0.1	14.9
New Mexico	58%	72%	3.6	1.4
New York	15%	1%	0.2	30.8
North Carolina	85%	99%	14.9	0.1
SUBTOTAL			76.8	93.2

North Dakota	95%	100%	3.0	0.0
Ohio	65%	86%	17.3	2.7
Oklahoma	93%	100%	7.0	0.0
Oregon	39%	21%	1.5	5.5
Pennsylvania	49%	47%	9.9	11.1
Rhode Island	5%	0%	0.0	4.0
South Carolina	87%	100%	8.0	0.0
South Dakota	95%	100%	3.0	0.0
Tennessee	85%	99%	10.9	0.1
Texas	93%	100%	34.0	0.0
Utah	95%	100%	5.0	0.0
Vermont	7%	0%	0.0	3.0
Virginia	85%	99%	12.9	0.1
Washington	35%	14%	1.5	9.5
West Virginia	47%	41%	2.1	2.9
Wisconsin	49%	47%	4.7	5.3
Wyoming	95%	100%	3.0	0.0
SUBTOTAL			123.7	44.3

FINAL TOTALS:

BUSH 301.5

KERRY 236.5

[Recovering_Democrat]

Much closer in recent days, isn't it? :(