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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, February 23, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 02/23/2004 1:35:06 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Dem Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
95.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
94.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
75.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
70.0 |
6 |
0 |
California |
18.0 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
80.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
20.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
35.0 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
2.0 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
68.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
90.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
13.0 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
95.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
30.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
87.0 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
42.0 |
0 |
7 |
Kansas |
91.5 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
88.0 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
80.0 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
39.0 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
17.5 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
4.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
47.0 |
0 |
17 |
Minnesota |
41.0 |
0 |
10 |
Mississippi |
94.0 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
65.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
91.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
65.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
58.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
16.0 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
58.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
15.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
85.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
65.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
93.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
39.0 |
0 |
7 |
Pennsylvania |
49.0 |
0 |
21 |
Rhode Island |
5.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
87.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
85.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
93.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
7.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
85.0 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
35.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
47.0 |
0 |
5 |
Wisconsin |
49.0 |
0 |
10 |
Wyoming |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
278 |
260 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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To: Momaw Nadon
This projection just says that Bush will win exactly the states that he did in 2000... and no more... except that you have him losing in West Va and winning in New Mex, which exactly cancel each other because each has 5 votes.
Thus Bush is up only by the 7 votes caused by the census re-districting.
41
posted on
02/23/2004 6:24:09 PM PST
by
Chris Talk
(What Earth now is, Mars once was. What Mars now is, Earth will become.)
To: NautiNurse
It depends on the voter fraud factor. This time it will not be 10% it will be 25%. With the e-machines and no paper trail its a dead cert.
To: zbigreddogz
In WV you have to consider Bush a definite underdog
simply because of lack of job growth and access to
affordable health care. The Dem's also have a two to one
edge in voter registration. Byrd and Rockefeller still
can turn out the vote. Fortunately for GWB, these
senate icons pretty much sat out the 2000 election.
Kerry will pull 55% in the Mountain State in 2004.
43
posted on
02/23/2004 7:38:35 PM PST
by
buckalfa
To: Momaw Nadon
According to this calculation, I get 55.42% X 538 = 298.14 Bush Electoral Votes. Mee too.
Alabama |
95% |
8.6 |
0.4 |
Alaska |
94% |
2.8 |
0.2 |
Arizona |
75% |
7.5 |
2.5 |
Arkansas |
70% |
4.2 |
1.8 |
California |
18% |
9.9 |
45.1 |
Colorado |
80% |
7.2 |
1.8 |
Connecticut |
20% |
1.4 |
5.6 |
Delaware |
35% |
1.0 |
2.0 |
District of Columbia |
2% |
0.1 |
2.9 |
Florida |
68% |
18.4 |
8.6 |
Georgia |
90% |
13.5 |
1.5 |
Hawaii |
13% |
0.5 |
3.5 |
Idaho |
95% |
3.8 |
0.2 |
Illinois |
30% |
6.3 |
14.7 |
Indiana |
87% |
9.6 |
1.4 |
Iowa |
42% |
2.9 |
4.1 |
Kansas |
92% |
5.5 |
0.5 |
SUBTOTAL |
103.2 |
96.8 |
|
Kentucky |
88% |
7.0 |
1.0 |
Louisiana |
80% |
7.2 |
1.8 |
Maine |
39% |
1.6 |
2.4 |
Maryland |
18% |
1.8 |
8.3 |
Massachusetts |
4% |
0.5 |
11.5 |
Michigan |
47% |
8.0 |
9.0 |
Minnesota |
41% |
4.1 |
5.9 |
Mississippi |
94% |
5.6 |
0.4 |
Missouri |
65% |
7.2 |
3.8 |
Montana |
91% |
2.7 |
0.3 |
Nebraska |
95% |
4.8 |
0.3 |
Nevada |
65% |
3.3 |
1.8 |
New Hampshire |
58% |
2.3 |
1.7 |
New Jersey |
16% |
2.4 |
12.6 |
New Mexico |
58% |
2.9 |
2.1 |
New York |
15% |
4.7 |
26.4 |
North Carolina |
85% |
12.8 |
2.3 |
SUBTOTAL |
78.7 |
91.3 |
|
North Dakota |
95% |
2.8 |
0.2 |
Ohio |
65% |
13.0 |
7.0 |
Oklahoma |
93% |
6.5 |
0.5 |
Oregon |
39% |
2.7 |
4.3 |
Pennsylvania |
49% |
10.3 |
10.7 |
Rhode Island |
5% |
0.2 |
3.8 |
South Carolina |
87% |
7.0 |
1.0 |
South Dakota |
95% |
2.8 |
0.2 |
Tennessee |
85% |
9.4 |
1.6 |
Texas |
93% |
31.6 |
2.4 |
Utah |
95% |
4.8 |
0.3 |
Vermont |
7% |
0.2 |
2.8 |
Virginia |
85% |
11.1 |
2.0 |
Washington |
35% |
3.8 |
7.2 |
West Virginia |
47% |
2.3 |
2.7 |
Wisconsin |
49% |
4.9 |
5.1 |
Wyoming |
95% |
2.8 |
0.2 |
SUBTOTAL |
116.3 |
51.7 |
|
FINAL TOTALS: |
BUSH 298.1 |
KERRY 239.9 |
|
44
posted on
02/24/2004 7:20:26 PM PST
by
supercat
(Why is it that the more "gun safety" laws are passed, the less safe my guns seem?)
To: SamAdams76
So...drum roll please, here are the projected results: BUSH - 307.075 EV KERRY - 230.925 EV Hmmm... I got different results [see above]. Though there is an important factor not considered in these numbers: what is the likelihood that a state will vote for a particular candidate if it matters?
It's possible that one or other candidate will self-destruct so badly as to give the other a landslide. That is probably the only way that certain states will ever go for the other candidate.
BTW, I tried adjusting the formula that divvies up Electoral votes based upon winning likelihood. The proportion of votes given to a candidate is a³/(a³+b³), where "a" is the probability of that candidate winning and "b" is the probability of the opponent winning. This if a candidate has a 55% winning edge, he'll get most of the electoral votes but the oponent will get a few. If a candidate has an 80% winning edge, he'll get almost all of the votes. Here's that table:
Alabama |
95% |
100% |
9.0 |
0.0 |
Alaska |
94% |
100% |
3.0 |
0.0 |
Arizona |
75% |
96% |
9.6 |
0.4 |
Arkansas |
70% |
93% |
5.6 |
0.4 |
California |
18% |
1% |
0.6 |
54.4 |
Colorado |
80% |
98% |
8.9 |
0.1 |
Connecticut |
20% |
2% |
0.1 |
6.9 |
Delaware |
35% |
14% |
0.4 |
2.6 |
District of Columbia |
2% |
0% |
0.0 |
3.0 |
Florida |
68% |
91% |
24.5 |
2.5 |
Georgia |
90% |
100% |
15.0 |
0.0 |
Hawaii |
13% |
0% |
0.0 |
4.0 |
Idaho |
95% |
100% |
4.0 |
0.0 |
Illinois |
30% |
7% |
1.5 |
19.5 |
Indiana |
87% |
100% |
11.0 |
0.0 |
Iowa |
42% |
28% |
1.9 |
5.1 |
Kansas |
92% |
100% |
6.0 |
0.0 |
SUBTOTAL |
101.0 |
99.0 |
|
Kentucky |
88% |
100% |
8.0 |
0.0 |
Louisiana |
80% |
98% |
8.9 |
0.1 |
Maine |
39% |
21% |
0.8 |
3.2 |
Maryland |
18% |
1% |
0.1 |
9.9 |
Massachusetts |
4% |
0% |
0.0 |
12.0 |
Michigan |
47% |
41% |
7.0 |
10.0 |
Minnesota |
41% |
25% |
2.5 |
7.5 |
Mississippi |
94% |
100% |
6.0 |
0.0 |
Missouri |
65% |
86% |
9.5 |
1.5 |
Montana |
91% |
100% |
3.0 |
0.0 |
Nebraska |
95% |
100% |
5.0 |
0.0 |
Nevada |
65% |
86% |
4.3 |
0.7 |
New Hampshire |
58% |
72% |
2.9 |
1.1 |
New Jersey |
16% |
1% |
0.1 |
14.9 |
New Mexico |
58% |
72% |
3.6 |
1.4 |
New York |
15% |
1% |
0.2 |
30.8 |
North Carolina |
85% |
99% |
14.9 |
0.1 |
SUBTOTAL |
76.8 |
93.2 |
|
North Dakota |
95% |
100% |
3.0 |
0.0 |
Ohio |
65% |
86% |
17.3 |
2.7 |
Oklahoma |
93% |
100% |
7.0 |
0.0 |
Oregon |
39% |
21% |
1.5 |
5.5 |
Pennsylvania |
49% |
47% |
9.9 |
11.1 |
Rhode Island |
5% |
0% |
0.0 |
4.0 |
South Carolina |
87% |
100% |
8.0 |
0.0 |
South Dakota |
95% |
100% |
3.0 |
0.0 |
Tennessee |
85% |
99% |
10.9 |
0.1 |
Texas |
93% |
100% |
34.0 |
0.0 |
Utah |
95% |
100% |
5.0 |
0.0 |
Vermont |
7% |
0% |
0.0 |
3.0 |
Virginia |
85% |
99% |
12.9 |
0.1 |
Washington |
35% |
14% |
1.5 |
9.5 |
West Virginia |
47% |
41% |
2.1 |
2.9 |
Wisconsin |
49% |
47% |
4.7 |
5.3 |
Wyoming |
95% |
100% |
3.0 |
0.0 |
SUBTOTAL |
123.7 |
44.3 |
|
FINAL TOTALS: |
BUSH 301.5 |
KERRY 236.5 |
|
45
posted on
02/24/2004 7:49:17 PM PST
by
supercat
(Why is it that the more "gun safety" laws are passed, the less safe my guns seem?)
To: Momaw Nadon
Much closer in recent days, isn't it? :(
46
posted on
02/26/2004 2:12:59 PM PST
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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