2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 23, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	18.0	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	35.0	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	68.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	30.0	0	21
Indiana	87.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	80.0	9	0
Maine	39.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	47.0	0	17
Minnesota	41.0	0	10
Mississippi	94.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	91.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	65.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	16.0	0	15
New Mexico	58.0	5	0
New York	15.0	0	31
North Carolina	85.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	39.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	49.0	0	21
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	87.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	85.0	11	0
Texas	93.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	85.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	47.0	0	5
Wisconsin	49.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Dog Gone]

I guess the reason why Bush has a 2% chance of winning DC is because you can't be positive how people on crack will vote.

[PetroniDE]

Do this calculation.

For each state, take the EV times the percentage chance of winning. Example. Bush has 85% chance to win State X with 10 EV. Bush gets 8.5, Kerry gets 1.5.

I realize each state (except ME/NE) is winner-take-all. This method gives an overall likely EV count that will fluctuate a little, since Bush will win some states projected <50% and will lose some state projected >50%.

[bmwcyle]

Don't forget the lead they have found in the drinking water.

[Momaw Nadon]

Ping!

[GiveEmDubya]

If Bush, or any Republican, ever won DC, I would fully expect to see 4 men on horses in the sky.

[11th_VA]

Bush has gone from 355 ECVs to 278 in a month. Hope he's hit the bottom...

[NautiNurse]

It's turned into a squeaker since the Jan 21 projections.

Florida at 68% with 27 EV is a nail biter again.

[Numbers Guy]

The only changes from 2000 are New Mexico going for Bush and West Virginia going for the Dem (5 votes each way). Bush's electoral vote total is higher than in 2000 due to the shift of Congressional seats toward the Sun Belt, reflected in the last census.

Lowest probability states for Bush currently in his column:

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5), both at 58%. If he lost both and the rest went the same as predicted, it's a 269-269 tie (though states' House delegations vote based on one vote per delegation and Bush would win that).

After that we have Missouri (11) 65%, Nevada (4) 65%, Ohio (20) 65%, Florida (27) 68%.

Methinks the Dems make a huge push in Missouri and Ohio, either one of those could decide the race if it's close.

[So Cal Rocket]

Changes from last week's forecast:

Bush loses Michigan (-17 electoral votes)
Bush loses Pennsylvania (-21 electoral votes)
Bush loses West Virginia (-5 electoral votes)

[11th_VA]

Assume he loses NH as well, and squeeks by with 274 votes, but with two FEWER states than he won in 2000 (WV & NH). Man, the DU would go crazy, riots in the streets, I think that's gonna happen if Bush wins anyway...

[ScaniaBoy]

Another, quicker way to see that Bush's electoral votes are holding up nicely (at this v early stage) is the fact that in 6 states totalling 70 electoral votes Bush needs a swing of less than 10% to win,whereas he has such a slender lead in only two states (NH and New Mexico) totalling 8 electoral votes.

ScaniaBoy

[GiveEmDubya]

It looks like all but 1 of the close (within about 5 points) percentages are blue states. Not a bad sign.

Honestly, I think Kerry has pretty much topped out. To me, he is less electable than Gore and not even Gore could manage an Electoral College majority.

[William McKinley]

No, the reason Bush has a 2% chance of winning DC is because you can't be positive how people on crack participating in a futures market simulation will bet.

[Momaw Nadon]

Do this calculation. For each state, take the EV times the percentage chance of winning.

This method gives an overall likely EV count

According to this calculation, I get 55.42% X 538 = 298.14 Bush Electoral Votes.

[GiveEmDubya]

Then it's probably more accurate since I do not see Bush winning Michigan or Pennsylvania at this point anyway. If we had even a shot at winning either one of them, I'd say Pennsylvania but it will probably go Dem.

WV, I call it a toss-up.

[MagnusMaximus1]

Bush loses Ohio and/or Missouri:
IF not on the issue on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs,
then, probably,
on the issues of God, guns, gays and abortion (ie. IF Dubya does not move right enough on these).

[chimera]

This race is going to go down to the wire, as I expected all along, and that will be because of economic issues. Bush is about out of time on that. And sending Mankiw and Snow out to shoot their mouths off and shoot themselves in the foot won't help things. The memory of 9/11 will be long gone from the (somewhat vacuous) minds of most of the electorate. Those who were predicting a blowout for Bush only a few weeks ago might as well have been on crack. Look for OH or MO to be the FL of this election. And keep an eye on vote fraud elsewhere. The Rats will do ANYTHING to beat Bush this time around.

[So Cal Rocket]

Ohio and Missouri will indeed be the battleground states.

This means the Dems will put together a Kerry/Gephardt ticket.