Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Eight

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this eighth installment, the random state generator presented me with Indiana, Arizona, South Dakota, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

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Indiana

Electoral Votes: 11

2000 Result

Bush 57%

Gore 41%

Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
2/15/04	SurveyUSA	Link	525 RV	4.2%	Bush	51%		45%

Punditry: The SurveyUSA poll is surprisingly close to me. Given the Republican leaning of this state, I expect it to open up to be more along what happened in 2000, although Evan Bayh being Kerry's VP choice would complicate matters. Leans for Bush.

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Arizona

Electoral Votes: 10

2000 Result

Bush 51%

Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%

Punditry: The polls match the results from last time. Leans for Bush.

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South Dakota

Electoral Votes: 3

2000 Result

Bush 60%

Gore 38%

Background: Another state that only went for the Democrats with Johnson since FDR's second campaign. It has occasionally been close.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
2/5/03	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	39%

Punditry: I do not anticipate any surprises in South Dakota. Strong Advantage for Bush.

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New Jersey

Electoral Votes: 15

2000 Result

Gore 56%

Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%

Punditry: If I had to guess, the next New Jersey poll will show Kerry ahead of Bush. However, it has been very interesting how well Bush's numbers have fared here in the Garden State. While my gut tells me that this is going to change, the numbers indicate that it should as of now be in the Leans for Bush category. I want to see one more poll before I can do that though, given the Clinton/Gore margins. Slight Advantage for Bush.

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Connecticut

Electoral Votes: 7

2000 Result

Gore 56%

Bush 38%

Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
3/11/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%
7/31/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%

Punditry: Compare how in the tri-state area, Bush's support has collapsed in Connecticut but remained high in New Jersey. I am not sure what to make of this, but it is very interesting. Strong Advantage for Democrats.

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Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	OR (7)	NM (5)	CA (55)	NY (31)	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	WV (5)	ME (4)	-	DE (3)	MA (12)
	MT (3)	KY (8)	MO (11)	NJ (15)	-	MI (17)	-	MD (10)	DC (3)
	WY (3)	KS (6)	VA (13)	-	-	PA (21)	-	WA (11)	RI (4)
	UT (5)	MS (6)	OH (20)	-	-	-	-	CT (7)	HI (4)
	ID (4)	SD (3)	IN (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	AK (3)	-	AZ (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	NE (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Designation Total:	35	40	95	47	12	47	55	59	26
Candidate Total:	175			106			143
Undesignated electoral votes: 114

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Next installment: Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven

[Dales]

If someone wanted to check to make sure that the five states I have listed as upcoming are not duplicates, and tell me the five remaining states after that, I would appreciate it. I think Wisconsin is one that hasn't been touched yet.

[Dales]

Eight.

[Azzurri]

You've done a great job with this analysis, but I have to disagree with a Bush advantage in NJ. NJ was, as you stated, a Republican state as recently as the 1980s. However, it has veered sharply left and I find it hard to believe Bush will spend much, if any, time in the state.

[Vigilanteman]

If New Jersey is even slightly leaning Republican, Pennsylvania should be more so. NJ has two of the nation's most liberal senators, Pennsylvania has one of the most conservative and the other is in the toughest primary fight of his career against a more solid conservative.

No way can I see NJ going Republican; but PA is a definite possibility.

[Neets]

Been busy today, eh??

[LibFreeUSA]

The election will ultimately come down to whoever can win 2 out of these 3 states:

PA / OH / FLA

[Chris Talk]

New JERSEY for Bush! How is that possible? It would appear to me that CT, DE, PA, MI and maybe even MD are more likely to go for Bush than NJ?

I hope you are right, but if you are, then it looks like the states above and others are in play as well. And it would be all-over, with Bush a shoo-in.

[GiveEmDubya]

::Throws red flag on the field::

Jeez I would be happy if Bush won NJ, but I don't think it will happen as of now.

[Chris Talk]

If that is true, we are safe, for FL and OH will definitely vote for Bush.

Personally I think PA is a toss-up at this time, or has a RAT lead so small that it will be in-play for sure in the campaign...

[onyx]

FOFLOL! Yes, he HAS been busy.

[Wheee The People]

BRAVO, Fantastic effort...2 other items would/might help. (Not suggesting YOU do it. I may try and gather it and send it to you. Or perhaps another Freeper may help, I'm going into hell week at work)

That is, what is the party make-up % of state legislature and what party is the Governor? Both of these can be pointers to which way the state leans in the Presidential race.

[Radix]

Hey,

I really like this stuff. I would love to be pinged to any more additions. I am not really interested in getting pinged to a whole lot of threads, but this particular stuff is of great interest to me.

I get a lot of FR pings now, and while cool, it is unrealistic that I can really look at them all. Time is simply too precious for me these days. Thanks.

[firewalk]

.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

You've been doing quite well, but I think you're off on NJ. If anything, put in toss-up.

As for Connecticut, the big lead that the "unnamed Democrat" has may be due to the leading Democrats having been fellow New Englanders, Howard Dean and John Kerry. Also, I think there has been a major scandal involving their GOP governor, but I'm not sure when that broke and how it would have affected the polls you have there.

[Neets]

Pinging the new members since Dales caught me napping on the job.

[LibFreeUSA]

New JERSEY for Bush! How is that possible? It would appear to me that CT, DE, PA, MI and maybe even MD are more likely to go for Bush than NJ?

Yep, NJ is a 'democrap' state. I know, I live in it. Rino Whitman took a state who the Republicans controlled, GOV / House / Senate, and have completely turned it over to the Dems. Unfortunately, no way NJ is going to Bush. However, I'll be out there campaigning for Bush like I did in 2000

[Texas_Dawg]

Nice work. I disagree with the NJ analysis as well though. I'd have to put it a lean Dem.

The 5 states you haven't touched upon are: TX, TN, NH, WI, OK.

[Don Corleone]

For a survey commissioned by our local TV station (Tucson) they have been strangely silent on the outcome. Bias? Not a chance(/sarcasm)

[nbenyo]

As recently as 1988 (Bush vs. Dukakis) New Jersey was more Republican than the nation as a whole.
However after 1994 the GOP leadershiop of Gingrich, DeLay, Armey did not play well here. Also the growth in Hispanic population and migration from NYC has magnified the trend.

[Dog Gone]

I'm glad you're back for the pre-election analysis, Dales.

Much appreciated.