Skip to comments.Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Eight
Posted on 02/22/2004 2:32:30 PM PST by DalesEdited on 02/22/2004 3:06:00 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this eighth installment, the random state generator presented me with Indiana, Arizona, South Dakota, New Jersey, and Connecticut.
|Electoral Votes: 11|
Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.
Punditry: The SurveyUSA poll is surprisingly close to me. Given the Republican leaning of this state, I expect it to open up to be more along what happened in 2000, although Evan Bayh being Kerry's VP choice would complicate matters. Leans for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 10|
Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided.
|7/18/03||Behavior Research Center||Link||701 Adults||4.3%||Bush||55%||Unnamed Opponent||41%|
|1/11/04||Behavior Research Center||Link||641 Adults||3.9%||Bush||50%||Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)||38%|
Punditry: The polls match the results from last time. Leans for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 3|
Background: Another state that only went for the Democrats with Johnson since FDR's second campaign. It has occasionally been close.
Punditry: I do not anticipate any surprises in South Dakota. Strong Advantage for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 15|
Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.
|9/8/03||Rutgers||Link||802 Adults||3.5%||Bush||43%||Unnamed Democrat||35%|
|9/15/03||Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind||Link||600 RV||4%||Bush||36%||Unnamed Democrat||29%|
|1/11/04||Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind||Link||600 RV||4%||Bush||40%||Unnamed Democrat||32%|
Punditry: If I had to guess, the next New Jersey poll will show Kerry ahead of Bush. However, it has been very interesting how well Bush's numbers have fared here in the Garden State. While my gut tells me that this is going to change, the numbers indicate that it should as of now be in the Leans for Bush category. I want to see one more poll before I can do that though, given the Clinton/Gore margins. Slight Advantage for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 7|
Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.
Punditry: Compare how in the tri-state area, Bush's support has collapsed in Connecticut but remained high in New Jersey. I am not sure what to make of this, but it is very interesting. Strong Advantage for Democrats.
|ND (3)||CO (9)||GA (15)||NV (5)||OR (7)||NM (5)||CA (55)||NY (31)||VT (3)|
|AL (9)||SC (8)||NC (15)||FL (27)||WV (5)||ME (4)||-||DE (3)||MA (12)|
|MT (3)||KY (8)||MO (11)||NJ (15)||-||MI (17)||-||MD (10)||DC (3)|
|WY (3)||KS (6)||VA (13)||-||-||PA (21)||-||WA (11)||RI (4)|
|UT (5)||MS (6)||OH (20)||-||-||-||-||CT (7)||HI (4)|
|ID (4)||SD (3)||IN (11)||-||-||-||-||-||-|
|AK (3)||-||AZ (10)||-||-||-||-||-||-|
|Undesignated electoral votes: 114|
Next installment: Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
No way can I see NJ going Republican; but PA is a definite possibility.
Yep, NJ is a 'democrap' state. I know, I live in it. Rino Whitman took a state who the Republicans controlled, GOV / House / Senate, and have completely turned it over to the Dems. Unfortunately, no way NJ is going to Bush. However, I'll be out there campaigning for Bush like I did in 2000
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