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If New Jersey is even slightly leaning Republican, Pennsylvania should be more so. NJ has two of the nation's most liberal senators, Pennsylvania has one of the most conservative and the other is in the toughest primary fight of his career against a more solid conservative.

No way can I see NJ going Republican; but PA is a definite possibility.

NJ is not an easy state for Republicans. This is a very pro-gun control and abortion rights state. The independents - the key to win the elections in NJ - are fiscally conservative, afraid of guns and pro abortion rights. Hard to see Bush get over 45-47% in NJ (if Bush can win 46-47% in NJ, he will definitely win in PA).

Some issues that may tip the NJ balance a bit towards Bush this fall -

1) Drug reimportation - all the hoopla on cheap Canadian drugs - NJ is the state with the largest employment in Pharma countrywide - all the R&D centers and corporate HQs of Merck, J&J, Pfizer, Hoffman, Bristol-Myers, Novartis blah blah - there are thousands of jobs could be threatened here if the dims push too hard on the drug issue,

2) Smoot-Hawley type of protectionism policy - NJ is a state with major seaports, most moderates see trade is a plus not a negative, then there is the wallstreet crowd, a smoot-hawley type of protectionist will crater the stock market, so goes the budding financial centers along the shore of the Hudson, and

3) NJ govn. is very unpopular, think the last poll he has is the mid 30s in approval, this could dim the hopes of the dems a bit.

I can see Bush get into the mid/upper 40s if the stars are aligned well (sorta like the votes Forrester, Franks got in the 02,04 senate races). If Bush can pull in the mid upper 40s in NJ, he could make the dems real nervous and need to spend some $$ in NJ. Advertising in NJ is very expensive.

The Nader intervention won't affect things much -- most of his support comes in states with wide Dem margins to begin with. The "battleground states" include West Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio and Florida (all states where MoveOn.org is already reported to be spending money targeting Bush). Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and New Jersey are the most important in terms of size and # of electoral votes. However, NJ is "lost" -- it is the demographics (the state is literally being overrun by immigrants -- by the hundreds of thousands within each election cycle). Michigan and Ohio will be tough due to the economic conditions, while Florida will be THE TEST -- was the socialist drug program and pandering to illegals worth it?