[Dales]

If someone wanted to check to make sure that the five states I have listed as upcoming are not duplicates, and tell me the five remaining states after that, I would appreciate it. I think Wisconsin is one that hasn't been touched yet.

[Dales]

Eight.

[Azzurri]

You've done a great job with this analysis, but I have to disagree with a Bush advantage in NJ. NJ was, as you stated, a Republican state as recently as the 1980s. However, it has veered sharply left and I find it hard to believe Bush will spend much, if any, time in the state.

[Vigilanteman]

If New Jersey is even slightly leaning Republican, Pennsylvania should be more so. NJ has two of the nation's most liberal senators, Pennsylvania has one of the most conservative and the other is in the toughest primary fight of his career against a more solid conservative.

No way can I see NJ going Republican; but PA is a definite possibility.

[LibFreeUSA]

The election will ultimately come down to whoever can win 2 out of these 3 states:

PA / OH / FLA

[Chris Talk]

New JERSEY for Bush! How is that possible? It would appear to me that CT, DE, PA, MI and maybe even MD are more likely to go for Bush than NJ?

I hope you are right, but if you are, then it looks like the states above and others are in play as well. And it would be all-over, with Bush a shoo-in.

[GiveEmDubya]

::Throws red flag on the field::

Jeez I would be happy if Bush won NJ, but I don't think it will happen as of now.

[Wheee The People]

BRAVO, Fantastic effort...2 other items would/might help. (Not suggesting YOU do it. I may try and gather it and send it to you. Or perhaps another Freeper may help, I'm going into hell week at work)

That is, what is the party make-up % of state legislature and what party is the Governor? Both of these can be pointers to which way the state leans in the Presidential race.

[Radix]

Hey,

I really like this stuff. I would love to be pinged to any more additions. I am not really interested in getting pinged to a whole lot of threads, but this particular stuff is of great interest to me.

I get a lot of FR pings now, and while cool, it is unrealistic that I can really look at them all. Time is simply too precious for me these days. Thanks.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

You've been doing quite well, but I think you're off on NJ. If anything, put in toss-up.

As for Connecticut, the big lead that the "unnamed Democrat" has may be due to the leading Democrats having been fellow New Englanders, Howard Dean and John Kerry. Also, I think there has been a major scandal involving their GOP governor, but I'm not sure when that broke and how it would have affected the polls you have there.

[Texas_Dawg]

Nice work. I disagree with the NJ analysis as well though. I'd have to put it a lean Dem.

The 5 states you haven't touched upon are: TX, TN, NH, WI, OK.

[Don Corleone]

For a survey commissioned by our local TV station (Tucson) they have been strangely silent on the outcome. Bias? Not a chance(/sarcasm)

[Dog Gone]

I'm glad you're back for the pre-election analysis, Dales.

Much appreciated.

[AM2000]

I live in NJ and most NJ'ians, even the ones who claim to be or lean Republican, don't like GW much. I think it's going to come down to whether or not Rove can make them dislike Kerry more, that's the only way the Republican base (as it exists in NJ) will even come out to vote.

[Dan from Michigan]

I can't see Jersey even being close, although I'll respect the gutsy call.

The main reason is the leftist shift there, as well as all the infighting in the state party there. After the Lostenberg/Torturecelli fiasco, there's slim to none chance IMO. In fact, I think Connecticutt, and even New Yawk will be closer than Jersey(60% dem wouldn't suprise me here.) If Jersey is in play, than this will be Dukakis II.

Agree on the rest, but Arizona scares me quite a bit with all the immigration and senior migration out there.

[AntiGuv]

You have not yet discussed those five states - Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.

The last five states would then be: New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin.

Keep 'em coming!

[Quicksilver]

Glad you're back doing these state-by-state poll analyses. I'd appreciate being on your ping list. Thanks.

[chimera]

AS an ex-patriot Jerseyan, I'll have to throw my vote with those who say it's a likely Kerry state, sorry to say. When I was growing up there, a lot of the electorate was like my parents, white, middle class, first and second-generation immigrants who believed in working hard in the hopes of building a better life for your kids. Relatively few fresh immigrants (although my schools always had a sizable Puerto Rican population, and fairly small influx from NY.

Demographics have changed. Quite a few New Yorkers have moved in, plus a huge influx of immigrants. The downstate Republican votes cannot offset the Rat advantage in North Jersey and Trenton/Camden. Scratch NJ as a Bush pickup.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Unlike some of the other FReepers on this thread, I think NJ may be close. It comes down to 9/11 and remembering. Those in New Jersey can't forget. Every time they look at NYC, there are two large buildings missing.

[Clintonfatigued]

I am a resident of Indiana, and I can explain the trends. 'Rat strength in Indiana is slowly growing, though it's still a Republican state. First of all, the Gary-East Chicago-Michigan City areas are 'Rat strongholds. Second, the southern part of the state is socially conservative, but in economic straights. Third, and most important, is Indianapolis. Lots of recent college graduates are moving into Indianapolis for white-collar jobs, many from southern Indiana. Most of them are single, concentrating on their careers, and not family-oriented. At the same time, many middle-class, two-parent families with children are leaving the city. This is especially prouounced among families with stay-at-home mothers and families whose fathers own their own businesses. Partly as a result, social conservatives are losing ground there, and 'Rats who campaign as moderates who balance budgets, fight crime, and are friendly to economic growth are winning more elections. If Evan Bayh is Kerry's running mate, than I believe Indiana is very much in play.

[Teacher317]

I'd re-categorize NJ. It's going to the Dems this year.