The main reason is the leftist shift there, as well as all the infighting in the state party there. After the Lostenberg/Torturecelli fiasco, there's slim to none chance IMO. In fact, I think Connecticutt, and even New Yawk will be closer than Jersey(60% dem wouldn't suprise me here.) If Jersey is in play, than this will be Dukakis II.
Agree on the rest, but Arizona scares me quite a bit with all the immigration and senior migration out there.
County - Gore Votes - Bush Votes - Nader - LP/RP/CP - Total - Gore% Bush% Nader % Right % Apache (St Johns) 13025 5947 245 201 19418 67% 31% 1% 1%
Santa Cruz (Nogales) 5233 3344 217 85 8879 59% 38% 2% 1% Pima (Tuscon) 147688 124579 12355 2777 287399 51% 43% 4% 1%
Coconino (Flagstaff) 20280 17562 2478 496 40816 50% 43% 6% 1%
Pinal (Florence) 19650 20122 904 578 41254 48% 49% 2% 1%
Navajo (Holbrook) 11794 12386 517 422 25119 47% 49% 2% 2%
Gila (Globe) 7700 9158 497 356 17711 43% 52% 3% 2%
Maricopa (Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale) 386683 479967 22465 10141 899256 43% 53% 2% 1%
Yuma (Yuma) 12055 15708 495 373 28631 42% 55% 2% 1%
Greenlee (Clifton) 1216 1619 68 57 2960 41% 55% 2% 2%
Cochise (Tombstone) 13360 18180 1113 514 33167 40% 55% 3% 2%
Mohave (Kingman) 17470 24386 1323 913 44092 40% 55% 3% 2%
La Paz (Parker) 1769 2543 91 77 4480 39% 57% 2% 2%
Yavupai (Prescott) 24063 40144 2733 1010 67950 35% 59% 4% 1%
Graham (Thatcher) 3385 6007 144 151 9687 35% 62% 1% 2%