I don't quite understand why people are disagreeing with the NJ analysis. What I said was that the poll numbers are very surprising to me, and I will be very surprised if the next time I get a poll I don't end up moving NJ over to the Kerry camp.
I guess people either don't remember how I did this last time, or weren't around for it. While my gut plays into things to a small degree (such as putting NJ in the "Slight" column instead of the "Lean" as would be indicated by just the polls), the overwhelming factor in the placement of any state in my analysis is where the state is according to its polls.