Skip to comments.Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Five
Posted on 02/22/2004 6:58:20 AM PST by Dales
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this fourth installment, the random state generator presented me with Kentucky, Michigan, Rhode Island, Idaho, and Alaska.
|Electoral Votes: 8|
Background: Johnson, Carter (first time) and Clinton (twice) carried the Bluegrass state. Nixon (twice), Reagan (twice) and both Bushes won here. It is very likely that Clinton would not have carried Kentucky either time if not for Perot. In 1992 Clinton won by three points with Perot capturing 13%, and in 1993 Clinton won by 1% with Perot capturing 9%.
|10/23/03||Associated Press||Link||LV||4%||Bush||47%||Unnamed Democrat||29%|
|2/4/04||Courier Journal||NA||LV||4%||Bush||55%||Unnamed Democrat||38%|
|2/16/04||Survey USA||Link||LV||3.8%||Bush||57%||Unnamed Democrat||41%|
Punditry: Bush carried it by 16, and the polls show the same margin. Things have changed, but this has stayed the same. Strong Advantage for Bush
|Electoral Votes: 17|
Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%.
|5/26/03||Epic/MRA||Link||400 RV||5%||Bush||48%||Unnamed Democrat||41%|
|9/21/03||Mitchell Research||Link||600 LV||4%||Bush||44%||Unnamed Democrat||49%|
|12/10/03||Survey USA||Link||724 LV||3.7%||Bush||53%||Kerry||43%|
|2/3/04||Survey USA||Link||724 LV||3.7%||Bush||46%||Kerry||51%|
Punditry: The polls in Michigan have basically oscillated around the even mark. When Bush is enjoying good weeks, he is up. When the Democrats are having good weeks, they lead. Couple that with the relatively close result last time, and the state's historical role as a battleground is shown to be a likely reprise. Right now, I am categorizing it a Slight Advantage for the Democrats.
|Electoral Votes: 4|
Background: Nine of the last eleven times, Rhode Island has gone for the Democrat. The two exceptions? When Republican Presidents that the state rejected originally ran for re-election (Reagan and Nixon).
|2/7/04||Brown University||NA||RV||4.6%||Bush||31%||Unnamed Democrat||53%|
Punditry: The trend of RI voting for incumbent Republican presidents was broken when Clinton defeated the elder Bush. While if Bush had gotten 100% of the Perot vote, he would have won, he would have lost if he had gotten three quarters of it, so the blame cannot be placed on Perot. The younger Bush is not going to revive that tendency. Rhode Island is Safe for the Democrats.
|Electoral Votes: 4|
Background: LBJ beat Goldwater by a point. That's the best the Democrats have to show here since 1948.
Polling Data: There currently is no publically available polling information. I don't expect that to change any time soon.
Punditry: Safe for Bush
|Electoral Votes: 3|
Background: No Democrat wins since Johnson. Perot came within 2 points of Clinton the first time.
Polling Data: Don't hold your breath.
Punditry: Alaska is Safe for Bush.
|ND (3)||CO (9)||GA (15)||NV (5)||-||NM (5)||CA (55)||NY (31)||VT (3)|
|AL (9)||SC (8)||NC (15)||FL (27)||-||ME (4)||-||DE (3)||MA (12)|
|MT (3)||KY (8)||MO (11)||-||-||MI (17)||-||-||DC (3)|
|WY (3)||-||VA (13)||-||-||-||-||-||RI (4)|
|Undesignated electoral votes: 255|
Next installment: Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Mississippi.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
I think national polls are useless as it is the electoral college that elects presidents. We need to look at the race state-by-state to see how things really stand.
If I were running the Bush campaign, there is one area I would focus my resources on and that would be the upper Midwest which is chock-full of states that Bush lost very narrowly in 2000. I'm talking Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and lets throw in Pennsylvania as well. Those five states make up nearly 70 electoral votes that Bush was denied in 2000 and getting these states back in the GOP column would pretty much seal the deal for Bush and even put him in landslide territory.
Bush lost both Wisconsin and Iowa by just a few thousand votes - less than 5,000 in each state. He ought to get those states back easily. Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania were also close and are definitely in play for 2004, with Michigan being the toughest nut to crack.
Please add me.
This is very informative. I also hope to see a 2004 election map similar to the USA Today's County by County 2000 Voting Map.
This map reveals the wisdom of the Electoral College and how it serves the Republican form of government that Americans enjoy.
This map goes to the township level. The blue here is republican, and the red is democrat, and a lot of those real small red 'dots' are actually small town lines of actually republican areas.
John Kerry's problem here more than anything else is his pompousness and arrogrance. This is a populist state, and 'men of the people' win here. Throw in the fact that Kerry is pro-abort to the extreme, anti-2nd Amendment to the extreme, protested the war and hung with Fonda, raised taxes, backed NAFTA, GATT, and MFN for China, and he's at a distinct disadvantage.
Not only that, he PO'ed Detroit. He did not campaign in Detroit once during the primary season, and even snubbed the NAACP. Only Al Sharpton showed up at that debate. Edwards didn't contest the state(his blunder), but Kerry just campaigned in Warren and Flint. To add to that, the Michigan Democrats moved the caucus sites at the last minutes in several places, most notably Detroit and Southfield.
If Bush can hold his own again in the Yooperland(which is usually democrat) and NE Lower, and win the spots Posthumus won that Bush lost(Macomb, Monroe), reduce his losses downriver, and drive up turnout in West Michigan and Livingston County - he'll pull it off. If Detroit stays home, it become MUCH easier.
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