I think national polls are useless as it is the electoral college that elects presidents. We need to look at the race state-by-state to see how things really stand.
If I were running the Bush campaign, there is one area I would focus my resources on and that would be the upper Midwest which is chock-full of states that Bush lost very narrowly in 2000. I'm talking Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and lets throw in Pennsylvania as well. Those five states make up nearly 70 electoral votes that Bush was denied in 2000 and getting these states back in the GOP column would pretty much seal the deal for Bush and even put him in landslide territory.
Bush lost both Wisconsin and Iowa by just a few thousand votes - less than 5,000 in each state. He ought to get those states back easily. Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania were also close and are definitely in play for 2004, with Michigan being the toughest nut to crack.