2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 16, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	17.0	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	40.0	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	68.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	34.0	0	21
Indiana	87.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	43.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	51.0	17	0
Minnesota	37.0	0	10
Mississippi	94.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	88.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	70.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	16.0	0	15
New Mexico	58.0	5	0
New York	15.0	0	31
North Carolina	88.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	43.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	51.0	21	0
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	82.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	85.0	11	0
Texas	93.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	85.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	52.0	5	0
Wisconsin	49.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		321	217

[My Favorite Headache]

Bush is gonna get Florida and Texas. I hope Rove doesn't expect Arnold to deliver California for Bush. They are going to try and appear that they can win it but it is damn near impossible. Spend the money on the real battleground states...Missouri,Ohio,Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

If you multiply the electoral votes in each state by the probability that Bush will get them (a more appropriate method of analysis), Bush's total is 418.49, not 321.

[chimera]

The bitter irony of all this is that the legacy of the first Republican-led government in 50 years will be an amnesty bill that will give Democrats a lock on the White House for generations.

The other is a slew of trade policies that have done harm to the natural constituency of conservatives and Republicans. White, male, middle class heads of households who have heretofore been the breadwinners of the traditional nuclear family, who may have lost their jobs and careers to offshoring and are being told by those they helped elect, "It's your own fault, screw you. Adapt or die." In my state, especially, and the professionals I know who have been harmed by the loss of their employment, who voted for Bush last time around, have indicated in no uncertain terms that they will not do so again. They're wrong to do that, of course, because President Kerry won't do anything other than raise taxes for a bunch of useless "retraining" programs, but it will be enough to swing those votes his way. Combine that with a shift in demographics and the ongoing hatred of Bush by traditional Rats, and you've got a close race going down to the wire, maybe tipping into the Kerry column if things don't get better. Very much like what has happened in IL and other plains states. GOP support in the heartland is being quickly eroded by by the Rats, and they'd better not get complacent about it because if they do they're going to lose, maybe big time.

[nathanbedford]

I agree with everything in your post except the tone. I have been saying for a long time that this is an uphill battle but I do believe the economy will trump all your arguments, which are good ones, and give Bush the edge. Jobs will follow on in time.

Your remarks about integrity are apposite and indicate why Kerry has gone after the integrity issue. If the Republicans continue to sit on their hands and expect the electorate to sort out the real truth about 16 words in the State of the Union, "imminent," National Guard Service, CIA outings etc, Bush will join his father in the history books

Moreover, the demographics are trending away from us and the cave in on immigration only hastens and makes certain the demise of a great party.

[nathanbedford]

Yup, we see the math and probabilities about the same way. But, of course, no one can predict 9 months out in these close states.

[FRgal4u]

I agree, Florida is out of the dims' hands this year. Florida's unemployment rate is very low, think it is in the upper 4% and the 2002 election shows the Republicans are not taking things for granted there. Bush should win the state with 51-53% of the votes.

The states Bush will need to watchout this fall is Ohio, me think Missouri is ok, NH/NV/WV are in play, Arizona could be in play if Richardson is the Veep. States Bush will have a chance to pickup, PA (cultural more conservative, not sure gay marriage stuff will fly there), Iowa/MN/Wisconsin all too close to call, Oregon/California/Michigan are probables (not likely, but California's unemployment rate is dropping fast, Bush could pull within 5 pts in CA if the economy is good - but then again, if CA is within 5 pts, Bush gotta pick up a few Midwestern states).

One wildcard is still who Kerry will pick for Veep or better yet, will Cheney be off the ticket, if he is who will be next? Rudy? Rice? or unthinkables like McCain/Powell? I used to think Frist will be a potential pick, but I just notice that Frist wrote a book about his family tree, saying how "WHITE" his family tree is, I think this book will doom him. If Richardson is Kerry's Veep - a Bush/McCain ticket is the perfect antidote. Should be interesting indeed.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

I used this handy little website and took out all states within 10 percentage points either way of 50% (counting those as tossup). It came out like this, FWIW:

Bush 274
Dem- 186
Toss 78

[Elmer Gantry]

Bush is going to get a big bounce once the Republican convention starts because the media has shot its negative ammo too early. Plus his job approval rating is above 50 and will stay above 50 because the economy is improving. Also look for a HUGE boost for Bush following the military's major spring offensive in Afghanistan. They have bin Laden trapped and will kill or capture him- with luck- right at convention time.

[chimera]

Bush is going to get a big bounce once the Republican convention starts because the media has shot its negative ammo too early.

No question there will be a bounce. They key will be to make it last. For Bush I in '88, it did. But for Bush I in '92, it melted away in a week or so. Counting on a bounce is one thing, counting on it lasting is another.

[BlackRazor]

If you multiply the electoral votes in each state by the probability that Bush will get them (a more appropriate method of analysis), Bush's total is 418.49, not 321.

I agree that your methodology is more appropriate, but I'd double-check your 418.49 figure. I come up with 300.

[FastCoyote]

"Bush will lose Arizona and Nevada because of Hispanic population growth alone"

These Hispanics coming in don't vote, they are near illiterate rateros. They are Mexicans at heart and don't give a flip about local politics. At least here in Nevada they are not a force.

[ClintonBeGone]

Neat thread. It's a shame the original 13 colonies are so damn liberal. What, is Bush likely to win ONE of the 13?

[ClintonBeGone]

My Senator is so stupid he'd have to get naked to count to 21 and my Governor wouldn't be able to!

She can if she counts that thing on her lip :)

[ClintonBeGone]

I think you're all dreaming. Bush will lose Arizona and Nevada because of Hispanic population growth alone; New Mexico is now firmly in the Democrat column. If Bush gets his way on amnesty, Republicans can say "adios" to the Southwest forever.

Well, there is no amnesty plan. But hopefully Rove will ignore the hispanic haters and reach out to that demographic. That will help us shore up the hispanic vote in areas beyond the soutwest. Hispanics need to know they have a friend in the White House and the GOP. I think Bush has done a good job of putting out the welcome mat.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

You are correct--my spreadsheet had some errors.

For giggles and laughs I performed a stochastic analysis and arrived at a mean estimate of Bush's electoral votes of 304.6, with 88.3% of the estimates meeting or exceeding the magic 270.

[CSM]

Good one. I needed a good laugh this am!

[BlackRazor]

It's a shame the original 13 colonies are so damn liberal. What, is Bush likely to win ONE of the 13?

Huh? Where do you get that from? NH, PA, VA, NC, SC and GA are all members of the original 13 colonies.

[ClintonBeGone]

Huh? Where do you get that from? NH, PA, VA, NC, SC and GA are all members of the original 13 colonies.

I'm sorry. I meant the New England colonies. My bad. :)

[ShandaLear]

If you look at the states that are adopting DOMA, I that's telling. I believe those states will go into the Bush column. Ohio is one of those states.

[newgeezer]

"DOMA"?