2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 16, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[newgeezer]

Oh, the Defense of Marriage Act.

You might be right. But, that depends on how well the state legislators represent likely voters, how well the Dem nominee deflects the issue, and how important DOMA is to the mushy middle, compared to other defining issues.

[supercat]

What if illegal and legal aliens find a way to vote with a little help or no help at all.... say 5% to 10% of them of 10 to 20 'illions of them... all they would needed is a drivers license and some fake documencation and say an address.. who would challege them.?. in Mexifornia it must already be a common occurance.

Yes, but because of the Electoral College, it probably won't matter too much generally. After all, most of the states where that would be an issue are states that Bush would be expected to lose anyway. And I don't think the illegal vote will cost Bush Texas.

[supercat]

If you multiply the electoral votes in each state by the probability that Bush will get them (a more appropriate method of analysis), Bush's total is 418.49, not 321.

I agree that your methodology is more appropriate, but I'd double-check your 418.49 figure. I come up with 300.

Alabama	95%	8.6	0.4
Alaska	94%	2.8	0.2
Arizona	75%	7.5	2.5
Arkansas	70%	4.2	1.8
California	17%	9.4	45.7
Colorado	80%	7.2	1.8
Connecticut	20%	1.4	5.6
Delaware	40%	1.2	1.8
District	2%	0.1	2.9
Florida	68%	18.4	8.6
Georgia	90%	13.5	1.5
Hawaii	13%	0.5	3.5
Idaho	95%	3.8	0.2
Illinois	34%	7.1	13.9
Indiana	87%	9.6	1.4
Iowa	42%	2.9	4.1
Kansas	92%	5.5	0.5
SUBTOTAL		103.6	96.4

Kentucky	88%	7.0	1.0
Louisiana	83%	7.5	1.5
Maine	43%	1.7	2.3
Maryland	18%	1.8	8.3
Massachusetts	4%	0.5	11.5
Michigan	51%	8.7	8.3
Minnesota	37%	3.7	6.3
Mississippi	94%	5.6	0.4
Missouri	65%	7.2	3.8
Montana	88%	2.6	0.4
Nebraska	95%	4.8	0.3
Nevada	70%	3.5	1.5
New Hamps	58%	2.3	1.7
New Je	16%	2.4	12.6
New Me	58%	2.9	2.1
New	15%	4.7	26.4
North Ca	88%	13.2	1.8
SUBTOTAL		80.0	90.0

North	95%	2.8	0.2
Ohio	65%	13.0	7.0
Oklahoma	93%	6.5	0.5
Oregon	43%	3.0	4.0
Pennsylvania	51%	10.7	10.3
Rhode	5%	0.2	3.8
South Ca	82%	6.6	1.4
South	95%	2.8	0.2
Tennessee	85%	9.4	1.6
Texas	93%	31.6	2.4
Utah	95%	4.8	0.3
Vermont	7%	0.2	2.8
Virginia	85%	11.1	2.0
Washington	35%	3.8	7.2
West Vir	52%	2.6	2.4
Wisconsin	49%	4.9	5.1
Wyoming	95%	2.8	0.2
SUBTOTAL		116.9	51.1

FINAL TOTALS:

BUSH 300.4

KERRY 237.6

[supercat]

[oops... I seem to have mangled some state names. Sorry about that. They're in alphabetical order, so it should be possible to figure out what's what].