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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, February 16, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 02/16/2004 9:45:16 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Dem Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
95.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
94.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
75.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
70.0 |
6 |
0 |
California |
17.0 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
80.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
20.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
40.0 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
2.0 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
68.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
90.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
13.0 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
95.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
34.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
87.0 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
42.0 |
0 |
7 |
Kansas |
91.5 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
88.0 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
83.0 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
43.0 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
17.5 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
4.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
51.0 |
17 |
0 |
Minnesota |
37.0 |
0 |
10 |
Mississippi |
94.0 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
65.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
88.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
70.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
58.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
16.0 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
58.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
15.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
88.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
65.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
93.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
43.0 |
0 |
7 |
Pennsylvania |
51.0 |
21 |
0 |
Rhode Island |
5.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
82.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
85.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
93.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
7.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
85.0 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
35.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
52.0 |
5 |
0 |
Wisconsin |
49.0 |
0 |
10 |
Wyoming |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
321 |
217 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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To: ShandaLear
Oh, the Defense of Marriage Act.
You might be right. But, that depends on how well the state legislators represent likely voters, how well the Dem nominee deflects the issue, and how important DOMA is to the mushy middle, compared to other defining issues.
61
posted on
02/17/2004 9:04:57 AM PST
by
newgeezer
(Just my opinion, of course. Your mileage may vary. You have the right to be wrong.)
To: hosepipe
What if illegal and legal aliens find a way to vote with a little help or no help at all.... say 5% to 10% of them of 10 to 20 'illions of them... all they would needed is a drivers license and some fake documencation and say an address.. who would challege them.?. in Mexifornia it must already be a common occurance. Yes, but because of the Electoral College, it probably won't matter too much generally. After all, most of the states where that would be an issue are states that Bush would be expected to lose anyway. And I don't think the illegal vote will cost Bush Texas.
62
posted on
02/17/2004 6:19:07 PM PST
by
supercat
(Why is it that the more "gun safety" laws are passed, the less safe my guns seem?)
To: BlackRazor
If you multiply the electoral votes in each state by the probability that Bush will get them (a more appropriate method of analysis), Bush's total is 418.49, not 321. I agree that your methodology is more appropriate, but I'd double-check your 418.49 figure. I come up with 300.
Alabama |
95% |
8.6 |
0.4 |
Alaska |
94% |
2.8 |
0.2 |
Arizona |
75% |
7.5 |
2.5 |
Arkansas |
70% |
4.2 |
1.8 |
California |
17% |
9.4 |
45.7 |
Colorado |
80% |
7.2 |
1.8 |
Connecticut |
20% |
1.4 |
5.6 |
Delaware |
40% |
1.2 |
1.8 |
District |
2% |
0.1 |
2.9 |
Florida |
68% |
18.4 |
8.6 |
Georgia |
90% |
13.5 |
1.5 |
Hawaii |
13% |
0.5 |
3.5 |
Idaho |
95% |
3.8 |
0.2 |
Illinois |
34% |
7.1 |
13.9 |
Indiana |
87% |
9.6 |
1.4 |
Iowa |
42% |
2.9 |
4.1 |
Kansas |
92% |
5.5 |
0.5 |
SUBTOTAL |
103.6 |
96.4 |
|
Kentucky |
88% |
7.0 |
1.0 |
Louisiana |
83% |
7.5 |
1.5 |
Maine |
43% |
1.7 |
2.3 |
Maryland |
18% |
1.8 |
8.3 |
Massachusetts |
4% |
0.5 |
11.5 |
Michigan |
51% |
8.7 |
8.3 |
Minnesota |
37% |
3.7 |
6.3 |
Mississippi |
94% |
5.6 |
0.4 |
Missouri |
65% |
7.2 |
3.8 |
Montana |
88% |
2.6 |
0.4 |
Nebraska |
95% |
4.8 |
0.3 |
Nevada |
70% |
3.5 |
1.5 |
New Hamps |
58% |
2.3 |
1.7 |
New Je |
16% |
2.4 |
12.6 |
New Me |
58% |
2.9 |
2.1 |
New |
15% |
4.7 |
26.4 |
North Ca |
88% |
13.2 |
1.8 |
SUBTOTAL |
80.0 |
90.0 |
|
North |
95% |
2.8 |
0.2 |
Ohio |
65% |
13.0 |
7.0 |
Oklahoma |
93% |
6.5 |
0.5 |
Oregon |
43% |
3.0 |
4.0 |
Pennsylvania |
51% |
10.7 |
10.3 |
Rhode |
5% |
0.2 |
3.8 |
South Ca |
82% |
6.6 |
1.4 |
South |
95% |
2.8 |
0.2 |
Tennessee |
85% |
9.4 |
1.6 |
Texas |
93% |
31.6 |
2.4 |
Utah |
95% |
4.8 |
0.3 |
Vermont |
7% |
0.2 |
2.8 |
Virginia |
85% |
11.1 |
2.0 |
Washington |
35% |
3.8 |
7.2 |
West Vir |
52% |
2.6 |
2.4 |
Wisconsin |
49% |
4.9 |
5.1 |
Wyoming |
95% |
2.8 |
0.2 |
SUBTOTAL |
116.9 |
51.1 |
|
FINAL TOTALS: |
BUSH 300.4 |
KERRY 237.6 |
|
63
posted on
02/17/2004 6:39:04 PM PST
by
supercat
(Why is it that the more "gun safety" laws are passed, the less safe my guns seem?)
[oops... I seem to have mangled some state names. Sorry about that. They're in alphabetical order, so it should be possible to figure out what's what].
64
posted on
02/17/2004 6:41:52 PM PST
by
supercat
(Why is it that the more "gun safety" laws are passed, the less safe my guns seem?)
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